MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Tailing Clayton Kershaw’s dominance opposite San Diego
By Matt Zylbert
Clayton Kershaw has pretty much been dominant against any opponent set before him throughout his future Hall-of-Fame career, but typically even more so versus the Padres. Will that continue tonight en route to an under?
Despite a lengthy rain delay that led to the removal of both starting pitchers — who had begun the game with a 0-0 duel over the first few innings — we were still able to scratch out last night’s Nelson vs Kuhl Under 9, with the Pirates ultimately prevailing 4-0 over the Brewers to win the bet decisively. Let’s hope for more of the same on the first Saturday in May.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 19-15-3 (55.9%), +270
Yesterday’s Result: Nelson vs Kuhl Under 9 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Clayton Kershaw vs Clayton Richard
UNDER 6.5 (-110) (via OddsShark)
When considering an under bet, you really can’t do any better than having the great Clayton Kershaw involved as one of the probable starters, and that’s even more so true when he’s squaring off with the division rival Padres.
Obviously, Kershaw has some otherworldly numbers overall under his belt from his magnificent 10-year career, but check out how he’s fared particularly versus San Diego: 15-6 record in 30 starts, 2.03 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .191 batting average against and 206 punch-outs spanning 195 1/3 innings.
Furthermore, he’s been even stingier when facing the club on their own field at Petco Park, having a 5-2 record in 11 career starts there to go with a 1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .178 batting average against and 74 strikeouts over 70 1/3 total innings.
Kershaw has already tangled with the Padres once this year, beating them back on Opening Day, when he fired seven innings of one-run ball, scattering just two hits, striking out eight and walking none. In other words, we should be good in trusting the former NL MVP and Cy Young winner opposite the Friars, especially since they’re last in the National League in batting average (.197), on-base percentage (.263) and slugging percentage (.315) against left-handed pitching. That being known, how in the world are they suddenly going to muster up some offense with the most dominant southpaw toeing the rubber?
And then there’s the other half of the pitching matchup, that being another veteran named Clayton — Clayton Richard, that is — who will take the hill for San Diego.
Richard is 2-3 in his first six starts with a 4.29 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but his best work has actually come opposing the Dodgers, whom he blanked over eight scoreless innings back in his first start of the year on April 4. That shouldn’t be all that surprising, though, as just like with the Padres, the Dodgers also struggle when taking on a lefty. Los Angeles is ranked barely above San Diego in that department, posting a .227 average and .311 OPS opposite left-handed pitching.
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The main reason to give Richard a shot here, however, may be because we’re catching him in a home assignment, with which he’s been much better compared to on the road. In fact, the 10-year veteran has been nearly two full runs better in his home outings, which is quite an extreme difference over such a large sample size. Richard owns a career 3.38 ERA at home in 100 appearances (67 starts), compared to a 4.97 ERA in 112 career appearances (80 starts) on the road.
Even if Richard ends up looking erratic, we can still get by here with Kershaw working his usual magic. With the Dodgers ace leading the way, that could be enough to propel the under.
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