MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Nelson, Kuhl to kick off Brewers-Pirates series Friday

Two NL Central rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates, meet tonight for the first time in 2017. With key offensive players sidelined and two pitchers due to get back on track, the under is worth a look.

Matt Andriese, I do declare! Those who follow my work know that the Tampa Bays Rays right-hander was one of my top-three sleepers (with Sean Manaea and Jameson Taillon) entering this season. Andriese looks like he’s entering a groove based on his last two starts, including last night’s sparkling gem to secure the under. Hopefully, the momentum on our end continues as well with tonight’s action.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 18-15-3 (54.5%), +170

Yesterday’s Result: Straily vs Andriese Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Jimmy Nelson vs Chad Kuhl

UNDER 9 (-110) (via OddsShark)

It’s not always the brightest move pursuing an under bet that involves two starting pitchers who don’t exactly sport friendly numbers on the year, but it can still be something that works in our favor if we pinpoint both to start bouncing back. That’s exactly how I’m approaching tonight’s series opener between the Brewers and Pirates.

Let’s start with Jimmy Nelson, a guy I admittedly really like despite his down numbers as of late. Last season, the former second-round draft pick endured a highly disappointing campaign, finishing 8-16 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

After a promising beginning in 2017, things have gone south for Nelson again, as he currently owns an even worse 5.34 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, but from tracking this guy throughout his career since he first debuted in 2013, I can assure you he is far better than this.

First off, Nelson came into the new year with one large goal: to cut down on the walks, even if that means surrendering more hits. To his credit, the right-hander has done just that, having issued only 10 free passes through his first five starts but at the same time, the hits have gone up as well, as opposing batters have registered a .301 mark off Nelson thus far.

I just cannot envision that continuing, as his stuff is too good for him to keep moving forward like that. Fortunately for Nelson, his next assignment pits him against a club whom he’s had some success facing, as he’s 5-3 in 10 career starts opposite the Pirates with a 3.51 ERA and .223 batting average against. On top of that, he’s been even better on their own field at PNC Park, boasting a 2.96 ERA in five starts at Pittsburgh. As a result, there’s reason to believe this could be a night he begins to get back on track.

Speaking of starters who are probably faring better than their numbers may indicate, we can include Nelson’s counterpart this evening, Chad Kuhl, in that discussion as well.

Kuhl is currently the holder of an unsightly 6.26 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, but taking one quick glance at his game log would reveal that he’s been far better than that. In fact, the sophomore right-hander has allowed more than two runs in a start only once in five tries.

So what’s the reasoning for his overall ugly stat line? A date with the defending world champs back on April 24, in which Kuhl was absolutely torched for nine runs on eight hits and four walks in just 1 2/3 innings of work. If you take that disastrous effort out of the equation, Kuhl would be boasting a, well, cool 2.95 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and interestingly, that start was the one and only instance in which he’s given up a home run this season. He surrendered seven long balls all of last year in 14 starts, so this is something else to look forward to when grabbing an under that features Kuhl as one of the listed probables.

Furthermore, another reason to believe that Kuhl can contribute one of his more normal outings versus the Brewers is that he had notable success against this opponent last year in his rookie campaign. The 24-year-old faced Milwaukee twice last season, going 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while holding their lineup to a .222 batting average in those starts. He should also benefit from star outfielder Ryan Braun being out of the lineup.

There’s a chance weather will play a role in this series opener, but if the game plays out as normal without interruption, look for one or both starters to at least provide some decent work, en route to pacing the under.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.