Nylon Calculus: Is this LeBron’s easiest path to the NBA Finals ever?

After finishing their sweep of the Toronto Raptors, their second consecutive series’ sweep in these playoffs, it sure appears that the Cleveland Cavaliers are headed for their third NBA Finals appearance in as many years. This would also make seven trips to the Finals in a row for LeBron, and the eighth Finals appearance of his career.

For all his individual playoff greatness, LeBron has faced constant criticism for the relative (poor) quality of the teams he has played on the way to the Finals. The deeply flawed Indiana Pacers were the only consistent playoff foe on anything approaching a similarly ascendent timeline. Other than that, LeBron has caught the tail-end of previously dominant teams — like the Billups-Wallace Pistons, the Big 3 Celtics, and the Kidd-Carter Nets — or he has been smashing upstart rivalries before the really have a chance to foment.

After eliminating the Raptors on Sunday, LeBron was asked whether he preferred to face the Boston Celtics or the Washington Wizards in the Eastern Conference Finals. His answer was that it doesn’t matter and, to be honest, he’s probably right.

On paper, the Raptors seemed like the most difficult challenge for Cleveland on the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket. They had the best SRS (point differential adjusted for strength of schedule) of any team in the conference, including the Cavs, and they couldn’t even take a game from Cleveland. Whether it’s Washington or Boston in the next round, LeBron and the Cavs should be heavy favorites. But how does this year’s crop of playoff opponents compare to LeBron’s previous path to the NBA Finals.

The table below shows the SRS for each team LeBron has played in each playoff round for the seasons he advanced to the Conference Finals. I’ve included 2008-09, even though the Cavaliers lost to the Magic in the Conference Finals that season.

Part of the built-in criticism around LeBron’s playoff paths is the relative cupcakes he has played in the first round. On one hand, that’s the reward for finishing the regular season near the top of the conference. However, the bottom of the East has been particularly week over the past decade, especially relative to the West. Only three of LeBron’s first round opponents in these seasons had a positive SRS. By comparison, the average SRS for the No. 7 and No. 8 seed in the Western Conference from 2006-2017 has been 1.90 and 1.88, respectively. In fact, 10 of the 22 teams that held the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the West over that time span had an SRS better than 2.25, which is the Celtics’ mark this season.

The strange ordering of this year’s potential NBA Finals path is interesting as well. As mentioned above, the Raptors had the best SRS of any actual or potential opponent in the East. This will be just the second time that LeBron hasn’t played the strongest opponent (on paper) in the Conference Finals. The other interesting aspect is the relative weakness of the Celtics and Wizards. Regardless of which team advances, LeBron will be facing the weakest team (again, on paper) he’s ever met in the Conference Finals.

However, this doesn’t necessarily make it the easiest path. If we take a rolling average of the teams he’s face through each round there are a handful of seasons that look easier.

In 2006-07, 2012-13 and 2013-14, LeBron’s teams faced opponents with a negative SRS in both the first and second rounds. While this may not be the easiest path he’s ever faced but, by SRS, the Cavs have already played (and swept) their most difficult opponent.

Next: Nylon Calculus -- Playoffs teams are living comfortably by the 3-pointer

It’s important to remember that SRS isn’t always the best measure of a team’s playoff potential, and the Cavs are the perfect example. Cleveland has looked far more dominant than their 2.87 regular season mark would indicate. However, watching the Celtics and Wizards stagger and trade haymakers, it’s hard not to feel confident in Cleveland’s chances.