MLB DFS Value Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel May 9th
I’ll be looking to uncover the most obvious MLB DFS Value Plays on each slate, and each site. Value plays will generally consist of under-priced players, or players priced differently on a given site. Some values will be in play on both sites, some will only be values on one specific site. Note that value tends to carry higher ownership and may be worth a fade in specific GPP contests.
Tonight’s slate features 14 games, with Chicago (6.4), Colorado (5.1), Houston (5), and Boston (4.9), holding the best projected team totals. With Scherzer on the bump and high priced batters in Coors Field, finding value will be critical to success tonight. Here are a handful of value plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings MLB Values:
Matt Joyce – OAK (OF) – $2500
The Oakland batters are ridiculously under priced on DraftKings tonight, and Oakland outfielder, Matt Joyce, makes for a terrific value play. Joyce only costs $2500, and should offer value, batting in the two hole, on a team with a projected total of 4.5 runs. Joyce will benefit from facing a righty, where he holds a .316 wOBA split.
Yonder Alonso – OAK (1B) – $2900
Yonder Alonso is another Oakland batter who’s drastically under priced at only $2900. While Joyce offers a safe floor in his ability to get on base, Alonso offers much more upside with his power. Alonso has gone deep five times, in his last seven games, and is in a favorable spot to continue that success. In the last 15 days, Alonso’s batted ball distance is up 39 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 4%, and his exit velocity is up 2 MPH, over his yearly averages. Normally, a player with this recent success would see a sharp price increase, but Alonso’s price has remained the same.
FanDuel MLB Values:
Carlos Gonzalez – (OF) – $3300
Colorado, predictably, has one of the best projected team totals, of 5.1 runs. While they wont be low owned, Colorado batters like Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon are discounted on FanDuel relative to DraftKings. Gonzalez is especially cheap at only $3300, given that he should bat fourth in the lineup. Gonzalez’s fantasy production has been down of late, but if you look at his recent batted ball data, it may show that his fantasy scoring isn’t indicative of the quality of his at bats. In the last 15 days, Gonzalez’s distance is up 12 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 4%, and his exit velocity is up 1 MPH. It may not be much, but it could mean that he’s been a victim of variance and could see positive regression in the future.
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Charlie Blackmon – (OF) – $4600
While not in the same price range, Charlie Blackmon is also discounted on FanDuel, relative to DraftKings. Blackmon will face the righty, John Lackey tonight. Blackmon has mashed against righties, with a .421 wOBA split and a .298 ISO split. With John Lackey on the hill, Blackmon may also offer additional stolen base upside.
Carlos Correa – (SS) – $3700
The Astros are projected to score 5 runs tonight, and Carlos Correa is one of the best value options at the short stop position. Correa was one of the players that was due to turn it around, as he was hitting the ball well, but with little fantasy production to show for. Of late however, we’ve seen these quality plate appearances finally start to result in fantasy production. Given the total total, his spot in the order (4th), and the warm night in Houston, Correa could be in for a big night.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!