FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – May 11
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 261.7 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 43 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.8 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 43 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.8 points.
Wednesday Night’s Picks and Pivots line-up landed at 162.6 FanDuel points which was 1-3 points below the cash line in each contest we played – so close, yet so far! Kenta Maeda delivered a strong start with 44 FanDuel points as he went 8.1 innings, striking out 5 Pirates and grabbing both the QS/Win. The Arizona offense was solid across the as Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas each eclipsed the 20 point mark and the Tampa Bay stack led by Corey Dickerson‘s 28.1 FD points did not disappoint. Ultimately it was a losing night and the few points shy kinda night is always the worst!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Zack Greinke ($10,200): Whenever we have a slate with Coors Field on it (like we do tonight), I am also going to start my research with the high-priced pitchers as the ownership will fly towards the high-priced Coors bats meaning that paying up for SP has the potential to be contrarian.
Initially looking over this slate I glanced over Zack Greinke pitching in Chase Field as in recent years the “shine” for Greinke has seemingly worn off leading me to balk at the consideration he is an ace pitcher worth over $10k on FanDuel.
However in his last four starts we have seen the vintage dominant strike-out machine we had come to expect with Greinke and I think he makes for an elite play this evening. Over his last four starts, Greinke is averaging 47 FD points per game and over 8 strikeouts per outing.
This season, Greinke’s K rate has jumped to 26% which is where it stood in his Dodger days prior to dropping down to 20% in his first year with Arizona last season. All the metrics this season – K rate, walk rate, xFIP – are in line with his elite Dodger years and tonight facing the Pirates he has the ability to dominate again.
The Pirates are not a high strike-out team but against right-handed pitching they rank in the bottom three in ISO and wOBA and we saw what Kenta Maeda could do to them last night so I am fine going back to this match-up again this evening.
If you are worried about the fact that this game is in Chase Field – well, consider that in his three previous outings Greinke has pitched in Chase Field twice and Coors Field once and hit 40+ FD points in every single one of those match-ups.
If you are looking for a low-cost pivot tonight, the one name that surprisingly stands out is J.C. Ramirez against the Tigers. One of the first things I do each day for my research is look at the Vegas run totals to get an idea of the slate and it shocked me that the Tigers have the lowest projected run total of any team on the slate.
Dig deeper on Ramirez and you will find a guy who has 40+ FD points in two of his last four starts and has 7 or more strike-outs in three of his last four games. If you are looking to pay up for Coors tonight, Ramirez may be the guy who gets you the salary to pull it off!
If you are looking for additional pitching options for your roster tonight, check out Matt Rogers Daily Pitcher Breakdown to help you uncover the best play for your roster!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres: As usual I will let the masses flood to Coors Field and I will opt to look elsewhere for hitting and on this slate I think we have a variety of great spots to target!
The Rangers and Padres have a combined team total of 9.5 runs which is the second highest mark on the slate outside of Coors Field and with two soft tossing lefties on the hill, this is an elite spot to target with power bats.
The Rangers get to tee off against Clayton Richard who this season as a 12% K rate, 10% walk rate and is giving up 37% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. I think a full on stack is in play here due to the high-walk rate (which will lead to multiple base runners) and the 2-3-4 stack of Rougned Odor ($3,000), Elvis Andrus ($3,000) and Carlos Gomez ($3,400) is loaded with upside at a reasonable price point tonight.
On the other side of this game the Padres will face off with Martin Perez who has almost identical numbers to Richard – 13% K rate, 12% walk rate and 37% hard hit rate to right-handed bats. Wil Myers ($4,000) is my top play here at first base and makes for a great one-off as first base is loaded and he may go over-looked in an elite match-up. Austin Hedges ($2,700) is my top secondary play as part of a mini-stack as the catcher has the power upside we want in GPP play with 7 home runs already this season!
Arizona Diamondback LHB versus Gerrit Cole: It would not be a Picks and Pivots article without me touting the Arizona bats in Chase Field. Although having a name pitcher like Gerrit Cole on the mound may scare some away, he is an exploitable target if you pick the right bats!
Cole this season is giving up 42% hard contact to LHB which is up from 36% last season and has surrendered 1.66 HR/9 to lefties so far in 2017. Jake Lamb ($3,700) is my top target and will likely go over-looked as the Coors Field third basemen will steal the majority of the ownership. David Peralta ($2,900) should slide back into the #2 spot in the Arizona line-up tonight with a right-hander on the mound and makes for a perfect mini-stack addition tonight!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Zack Greinke ($10,200)
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C: Austin Hedges ($2,700)
1B: Wil Myers ($4,000)
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,000)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,700)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($3,000)
OF: Carlos Gomez ($3,400)
OF: David Peralta ($2,900)
OF: Jake Marisnick ($2,100)
Slate Overview: Tonight I will look to pivot away from Coors and by doing so will look to not only be contrarian with my hitters but will opt to pay up at SP while most spend their salary on hitters. I think Greinke is an elite strikeout spot tonight which is unmatched by the other hurlers on this slate. From a hitting perspective the Texas/San Diego game is a great game stack and do not overlook Arizona in Chase Field as they have the ability on any given to be the top scoring team on the slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!