Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 1:05PM and 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s winning GPP scores were well below our season average as it took 230.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 45 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.9 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 45 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.9 points.
Friday Night’s Picks and Pivots was built around Clayton Kershaw who we thought would be under owned as a result of his match-up in Coors Field and throughout the day we felt the industry discussion would drive ownership down that exact path. I was surprised however to see when line-ups locked that Kershaw was 25% owned in GPP’s but he came through with a solid 37 FD point outing. Our line-ups landed right at 121 points as the Kershaw/Arizona hitter combination came through but our Texas/Oakland stack was a dud!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB -Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY):
Chris Sale ($11,800): The Early Slate pitching is an easy one to break down – you play Chris Sale.
That’s it. Now on to hitters.
Just kidding, I will at least give you some context!
Sale gets a home start today against the Tampa Bay Rays and will step to the mound as a massive -260 favorite. So far this season Sale is leading all of baseball with an absurd 37% K rate and faces a Rays team that strikes out more than any other team in MLB against LHP (27%).
Sale comes into this start with six straight double-digit strikeout games and it appears the weather in Boston will be in the mid-50’s with the wind blowing in.
Not yet convinced? Maybe you are a BvP kinda guy or gal. Let’s take a look at Sale’s career numbers against the Rays hitters – 12 for 95 (.126 average) with 38 strikeouts or 40% of their at-bats.
Honestly, I am not sure there is a single metric or analytic that leads me to any other place than Chris Sale. I expect the ownership to be massive on the Early Slate but even if he is 60% owned then I know I have an advantage on 40% of the field!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
For as cut and dry as the pitching on the Early Slate is, the hitting is much tougher to navigate and with a likely rain-out in NY we get two fewer offenses to target right off the bat! Rather than all out stacks I think this is the right spit to play more mini-stacks or targeted one off’s with home run upside.
Miguel Sano and the Twins bats versus Mike Clevinger: The absolute top bat I am looking to build around today is Miguel Sano ($3,800) who comes into this spot with back to back home run games and will face off with Mike Clevinger who gives up 37% hard contact and 2 HR/9 to right-handed batters in his career.
Sano and his teammate Brian Dozier ($4,200) make for an elite game stack if you can afford them as they are 4 for 9 with 2 home runs combined off Clevinger. Max Kepler ($2,700) is an alternate pivot in the OF who should bat right behind Sano in the line-up and can be added as part of a full on stack.
Indians versus Jose Berrios: Berrios is one of the top prospect arms in all of baseball but was absolutely lit up in his first go round in the bigs to the tune of an 8 ERA. Berrios gave up a ton of hard contact (33%), surrendered 2 HR/9 and had a 12.5% walk rate which typically spells disaster but this is a small sample size and Berrios has the elite pedigree to dominate any line-up.
Because of the talent I am not going to advocate a full on stack here but I do want Indians exposure and we can get it relatively inexpensively with a 4-5 mini-stack in Edwin Encarnacion ($3,500) & Jason Kipnis ($3,000).
Blue Jays versus Ryan Weber: Weber will be called up from Triple-A to start today’s game against Toronto and considering this is a pitcher who has a 30% hard contact rate, 1.5 HR/9 and mid-teens strikeout rate in his MLB career, we should not be able afraid to load up on Blue Jays bats.
Steve Pearce ($2,900) and Ezequiel Carrera ($3,100) make for a great mini-stack at the top of the Toronto order and we can look to a punt option like Darwin Barney ($2,200) who has hit safely in each of his last five starts!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview (EARLY):
P: Chris Sale ($11,800)
C: Luke Maile ($2,000)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($3,500)
2B: Jason Kipnis ($3,000)
3B: Miguel Sano ($3,800)
SS: Darwin Barney ($2,200)
OF: Max Kepler ($2,700)
OF: Steve Pearce ($2,900)
OF: Ezequiel Carrera ($3,100)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate on FanDuel is very simple – lock in Chris Sale and then move on to hitters. As I mentioned, there is not a single “must play” spot for hitters so I think mixing and matching with a variety of mini-stacks is the optimal approach with a focus on Toronto and Cleveland/Minnesota.
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (MAIN):
Trevor Cahill ($8,100) versus Chicago White Sox: So far this season we have seen some journeyman starting pitchers like Charlie Morton and Jason Vargas take a legit leap into elite territory but none may be pitching better than Trevor Cahill right now.
Cahill comes into today’s game against the White Sox with 43 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games while striking out at least 7 batters in all but one start so far this year. Cahill is pitching exceptionally well in the early going with a 30.1% K rate which is 7% higher than last year but he does have a 12% walk rate and is giving up 33% hard contact so there is risk here.
The White Sox are a perfect match-up for Cahill as they strike out at a 24% clip against right-handed pitching which is 6th most in all of baseball while having the 4th lowest ISO against RHP. Cahill is a solid -125 road favorite here and with a lack of pitching options on the Main Slate I think Cahill represents the highest upside starter we can select.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (Main)
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Trevor Williams: As usual I will pivot away from the highly popular Coors Field and look instead to other elite hitting spots like Chase Field where we can target the Diamondbacks against RHP Trevor Williams who is giving up 2.5 HR/9 this season.
Arizona has a 5.33 projected run total which is the highest outside of Coors Field and I will be looking to players like A.J. Pollock ($3,900), Jake Lamb ($3,500) and David Peralta ($3,000) who have massive upside and are priced reasonably for a home game.
Detroit Tigers versus Ricky Nolasco: The one team that may get overlooked on this slate with a middle of the road run projection is the Detroit Tigers but I absolutely love this spot against Ricky Nolasco in LA.
Nolasco is giving up 40% hard contact and 3.26 HR/9 to right-handed batters and will face a powerful right-handed heavy line-up in Detroit. Miguel Cabrera ($3,900) and Ian Kinsler ($3,600) make for an elite mini-stack but do not overlook J.D. Martinez ($3,300) who returned from the D.L. on Friday!
Texas Rangers versus Sonny Gray: Yes the Rangers have burnt us the last few days but this is a line-up with a 5 projected run total against a lefty in Sonny Gray who is giving up a 3.6 HR/9 to right-handed bats this year and I will look towards Elvis Andrus ($2,800) & Jonathan Lucroy ($2,800) as a middle of the order mini-stack in hopes we can capitalize on Gray’s home run tendencies.
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Trevor Cahill ($8,100)
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C: Jonathan Lucroy ($2,800)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($3,900)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,600)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,500)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($2,800)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($3,900)
OF: David Peralta ($3,000)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($3,300)
Slate Overview: I love the Main Slate today as we have a variety of hitting spots to target and with Coors Field on the slate we should see deflated ownership.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest lineup news and roster updates!