MLB Over/Under Best Bet: An under bet on Mother’s Day
By Matt Zylbert
The Brewers go for the series sweep this afternoon when they host the Mets once more following a pair of high-scoring contests.
Well, another nice win last night as my Julio Teheran vs. Edinson Volquez Under-9 bet cashes without a sweat. It’s always nice to be in position for a weekend sweep, and I’ll hopefully pull off just that with today’s Mother’s Day under wager.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 24-18-4 (57.1%), +430
Yesterday’s Result: Teheran vs Volquez Under 9 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob deGrom vs. Wily Peralta
UNDER 8.5 (-105) (via OddsShark)
The Mets’ season up to this point has been messy if nothing else, but lost in all the hysteria and panic of their 16-19 start has been the continued solid work from ace Jacob deGrom, who has provided a very important presence on the club’s starting pitching staff amidst all their several key injuries.
Not only has deGrom been piling up the strikeouts — in fact, he’s second in the National League in K’s behind only Max Scherzer — but the 28-year-old former NL Rookie of the Year has also been racking up quality starts, registering five in his first seven tries, while yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of his assignments.
deGrom has displayed impressive consistency despite an unfriendly 1.34 WHIP, but his success may continue nonetheless opposite a Brewers lineup that strikes out in bunches. Entering Sunday’s action, actually, they’ve struck out the third-most times (342) in all of baseball.
Thus, that can be something very advantageous for deGrom, not to mention the fact he owns nifty numbers against the Brew Crew. In five career meetings with Milwaukee, deGrom is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 28/7 K/BB ratio over 31 total innings. Furthermore, he hasn’t allowed a single run in two career outings at Miller Park, where he is a perfect 2-0 with a 0.70 WHIP and .160 batting average against to go along with that spotless 0.00 ERA.
That brings us to Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta, a guy who can be erratic at times, but also someone capable of being helpful for an under bet when the line is as high as 8.5.
Sometimes in bets like this one, and when one of the starters is an ace-caliber pitcher like we have here with deGrom, you just want the opponent to be an innings-eater who can get you into a position late in the ballgame for an under, and that’s the role Peralta can play here.
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The six-year veteran has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his seven starts, allowing more than four runs only once. That can be crucial if he provides a similar effort this afternoon because if we get the desirable standout performance from deGrom, Peralta is capable of doing the rest until the Brewers’ above-average bullpen gets involved.
It should also help that the Mets are suddenly scuffling again, having lost their last three. When that’s happening, and especially with the kind of season they’ve specifically been having, guys start to press more at the plate, and that’s something Peralta can capitalize on in recording a decent stat line. Taking that all into account, the under looks like it can deliver on this Mother’s Day afternoon.
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