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Strive for Five: DFS Main Slate

By Mitch

Oct 13, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) celebrates after forcing the last out from Washington Nationals shortstop Wilmer Difo (1) after game five of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 13, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) celebrates after forcing the last out from Washington Nationals shortstop Wilmer Difo (1) after game five of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
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MLB DFS can be a tornado of data that can be absolutely overwhelming if you don’t stay organized along the way.  Sometimes we can get lost in small details, with varying importance and become paralyzed by the research itself.  Whatever process you choose to roll with, make sure it is one that doesn’t leave you more confused than before you started.

For the large MLB main slate, it is imperative to stay focused and be structured with your research.  Luckily for you, I will be doing this for your benefit.  In this article, I will present to you several strong plays and five nuggets that support each choice.

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Jedd Gyorko, (R) 3B, BOS@STL

  • Gyorko has massive reverse splits and has absolutely crushed right-handed pitchers in 2017.  Against righties, he’s sporting a .349 average and a .445 wOBA.
  • He’s batting .367 with men on base and .346 with men in scoring position.  With the Cardinals offense heating up in front of him, he has the opportunity to drive in a few RBI.
  • Jedd has a .431 BABIP and 175 wRC+.  If he’s able to make contact with the ball he has proven that he will get on base at a high rate.
  • His .291 ISO and 36.5% hard hit rating are both higher than his splits versus left-handed pitchers.
  • Third base is a position filled with viable hitters and this frequently leads to Gyorko being under-owned.  Locking in a phenomenal hitter at a lower ownership can lead to a nice edge against your opponents.

Matt Holliday, (R) OF, NYY@KC

  • Holliday has fantastic splits against left-handed pitchers.  In 2017, he’s batting .364 and has a .511 wOBA.
  • Matt has tremendous power when facing lefties.  He currently has a .409 ISO and a 50.0% hard hit rating.  His soft contact rating sits at a very low 6.3%.  When he faces left-handers he rarely makes weak contact and frequently crushes the ball for extra-base hits.
  • He has hits in seven straight games and nine out of his last ten.  Over that span of games, he has five extra-base hits including three home runs.
  • The weather report is showing a breezy day at the ballpark.  The current projection has the wind blowing out to left field at 22 MPH.  Matt is a pull hitter, meaning he hits the ball to left-field frequently.  On all of his batted ball events that went to left field, he has a 43.8% hard hit rating.  With that type of wind behind a hard hit ball, there is a good chance he can send one into the bleachers.
  • His position in the batting order is solidified as the number three hitter.  He is driving in runs because of the hot hitting outfielders ahead of him.  He has Starlin Castro and Aaron Judge behind him which means he is protected and will see good pitches to hit.

Elvis Andrus, (R) SS, PHI@TEX

  • The Rangers are projected to score 5.4 runs which are currently the highest run total that Vegas projects.
  • Elvis hits in the top half of the order every single game.  Some games he will bat second and others he will be the cleanup hitter.  No matter what, we can count on a superb position in the order.
  • Going into Wednesday night, Andrus had hits in five of his last six games.  More recently, he has five RBI in the past two games combined.
  • On the season he has a 28% hard hit (HH) rating.  Over the past two weeks, he has really been making strong contact as his two-week HH rating is 34%.
  • The Rangers are facing a right-handed pitcher, Zach Eflin, who has given up exactly nine hits in each of his last two starts.  The Rangers have a fantastic ballpark for hitters and Andrus has a solid opportunity to keep swinging a hot bat.

Jake Lamb, (L) 3B, NYM@ARI

  • In his brief career, Lamb has had fantastic splits against right-handed pitchers.  In 2017, it is no different.  Over his one-hundred at-bats against righties, he has seven home runs, twenty-two RBI and has a .330 average.
  • His .416 wOBA against righties is 161 points higher than his .255 wOBA against lefties.
  • Lamb has a .270 ISO against right-handed pitchers.  To put that into comparison, he only has a .119 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
  • He bats cleanup for the Diamondbacks, who are projected by Vegas to score 5.0 runs.  If A.J. Pollock or David Peralta return to the lineup ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, then the Diamondbacks will have three excellent hitters ahead of Lamb in the batting order.  This should provide him with ample opportunity for driving in multiple RBI.
  • The New York Mets are offering up a right-handed sacrifice named, Matt Harvey.  Harvey has been wretched this season and has really struggled to get out of innings.  He has allowed a 33% hard hit rating to opposing batters and over the last two weeks that number sits at 35%.  Harvey has given up seven home runs in his last twenty-one and one-third innings.

Clayton Kershaw, (L) Pitcher, LAD@SF

  • The Giants play in the second worst ballpark for hitters and will be facing the best pitcher in the Majors.
  • Coming into this week of games, as a team, the Giants were batting .234 and had a .283 wOBA against left-handed pitchers.
  • They were also only making 26.9% hard contact leading up to this week. When they did make contact, their team ISO versus lefties had been a putrid .109, sixth worst in Major League Baseball.
  • The Giants are projected to score 2.8 runs, which is the lowest team total that Vegas is projecting.
  • The Giants have seven right-handed bats that normally start when facing left-handed pitchers.  In 2017, Clayton has a 0.87 WHIP against righties and has allowed a .236 wOBA.

The day is young and we have plenty of time to organize our research.  Use these underrated plays and hope for lower ownership.  If they do as well as their matchups say they could, then I will see you at the top of the leaderboards.

Next: Fantasy Baseball: Under the radar AL West prospects

You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and let me know about your massive winnings. I love to interact with followers and would really appreciate any feedback you might have.

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