MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Stroman, Teheran to square off in series finale in Atlanta

The Blue Jays and Braves have seen the over hit in the first three games of their interleague series, but Julio Teheran and Marcus Stroman can churn out the opposite outcome in tonight’s finale.

Nice easy win yesterday following Tuesday’s defeat, as the Astros-Marlins Under 8 wins without a sweat. That’s just one, though, so let’s try to keep the winning going into Friday.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 27-20-4 (57.4%), +505

Yesterday’s Result: McCullers vs Urena Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves

Marcus Stroman vs Julio Teheran

UNDER 8 (-110) (via OddsShark)

While there has been a heavy amount of scoring in this four-game, home-and-home interleague series between the Blue Jays and Braves — with the over going 3-0 in the process — the starting pitching matchup set for tonight’s finale could very well generate the opposite result.

The last Julio Teheran start was covered in this column on Saturday, that being a successful under bet win, and with the way the 26-year-old Colombian got out of a recent rough patch his last time out, a bunch more of those results appear to be in his near-future.

Teheran was scuffling after a terrific start to his 2017 campaign, but against the Marlins this past week, the Atlanta ace notched his best outing in weeks, tossing six scoreless innings in Miami while scattering just five baserunners (three hits and two walks).

Typically, Teheran has been better throughout his career, so it’s a little surprising to see his splits arranged in the opposite direction, with the right-hander having poor numbers at the club’s new SunTrust Park thus far. However, expect that to change closer to the norm as we go deeper into the season given how well he has pitched in Atlanta throughout his career.

However, it will ultimately be Marcus Stroman who makes the biggest contribution from the starting pitching side of things this evening, considering the spot he’ll be in.

First off, there’s a mental aspect here that makes Stroman trusting to lean on, as he has even said himself how much he looks forward to pressure. In this assignment, he’ll certainly have that in front of him, trying to help his Blue Jays to avoid this four-game sweep as they seek to continue bouncing back from their disappointing start to the campaign. In other words, he’ll be really looking forward to this outing, which is something that can help him be at his best.

Stroman is also in a groove, having fired four quality starts in his last five tries and winning his last two decisions as well. Perhaps most importantly, though, is the 26-year-old’s success in interleague play, going 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA 11 games (eight starts) opposite National League opponents.

And of course, it would be a mistake not to say this also has nothing to do with Freddie Freeman’s unfortunate injury, with the NL’s home run leader set to miss 10-12 weeks. He was the most important bat in the Braves lineup, so without his presence in there, especially right away, their offense may suffer as a result.

All things considered, this looks like a promising under bet to wrap up this four-game set.

Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins

Tyler Chatwood vs Jose Berrios

UNDER 8.5 (-110) (via OddsShark)

This is the second game of a doubleheader between these two clubs, following an opening contest that saw Colorado prevail, 5-1, behind rookie German Marquez. They might get some continued steady pitching in the nightcap from Tyler Chatwood.

That’s because Chatwood will be working away from Coors Field this evening, and that’s significant because the seven-year veteran has been considerably better in away contests during his tenure with the Rockies. That trend has continued into 2017, in which his ERA is more than two runs better on the road than it is at home.

The real reason to invest in this under, though, has to do with promising Twins right-hander Jose Berrios, who is making his second start since being called up this year.

If it’s anything like his first outing, the under can come out victorious here, given Berrios’ strong potential. In his season debut, the 22-year-old sensation fired 7 1/3 superb innings versus the Indians, holding the defending American League champs to just one run on two hits in 7 2/3 innings.

He also only struck out four but the K’s will start to come sooner than later for this strikeout artist. Additionally, he only walked one, which was probably one of the best takeaways from that first assignment, as free passes have doomed him in the past.

Either way, Berrios looked really good in his first time out and figures to follow it up with much of the same. It all adds up to an under when projecting the outlook for both starters.