Strive for Five – Statistical Analysis for the MLB DFS for May 31

By Mitch | May 30, 2017

May 26, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the San Diego Padres during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

MLB DFS can be a tornado of data that can absolutely be overwhelming if you don’t stay organized along the way. Sometimes we can get lost in small details.

Whatever process you choose to roll with for DFS, make sure it is one that doesn’t leave you more confused than before you started. For the large MLB main slate, it is imperative to stay focused and be structured with your research.

Luckily for you, I will be doing this for your benefit. In this article, I will present to you several strong plays and a minimum of five nuggets that support each choice.

Max Scherzer, Pitcher, WSH@SF

Max went out and pitched eight and two-thirds innings in his last start and struck out thirteen batters. It was his best performance of the year and he dominated a weak San Diego Padres lineup. Wednesday, Scherzer faces the poor hitting Giants at AT&T Park, which is notorious for favoring pitchers.

Against right-handed pitchers in 2017, the Giants have the lowest wOBA (.281) and ISO (.133) in Major League Baseball. They struggle to get on base and they rarely hit extra-base hits.

Using the same splits, the Giants also have the lowest wRC+ (74), BABIP (.264) and are hitting a measly .229 average.

Using the game logs it appears that Buster Posey will have a good chance of missing this game, as he usually sits once every five or six games.

Aaron Judge, OF, NYY@BAL

The Yankees get to face a struggling Kevin Gausman in a nice hitters ballpark. In his last six starts, he has given up 10 home runs, 30 earned runs, and 56 hits in just 37 innings. Those numbers are astonishing. An offense like the Yankees can make a struggling pitcher look like he doesn’t belong in the Majors.

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Judge is not only in the race for American League Rookie of the Year, but if he continues at this torrid pace needs to be considered for the Most Valuable Player.

The behemoth has finally been moved up to fourth or fifth in the batting order after spending the first six weeks batting sixth or seventh. This has allowed him plenty more RBI opportunities.

Over the past two weeks, Judge has a 43% hard hit rating and an average batted ball distance of 243 feet. His average exit velocity (aVE) on all batted ball events (BBE) sits at an elite 94 MPH.

Against righties in 2017, Judge is batting .328 with an elite .461 wOBA. He has proven he isn’t a one-trick pony as a home run hitter. His .383 ISO is as scary as it gets for opposing pitchers.

Jose Abreu, 1B, BOS@CHW

The Red Sox are starting left-handed pitcher, Drew Pomeranz on the mound Wednesday. Whenever a lefty is on the mound against the White Sox then Abreu automatically vaults to the top of my first baseman rankings.

Although his numbers are not as enormous as in years past he is actually hitting lefties better this year than ever before. Against lefties in 2017, Abreu has a .436 AVG, .494 wOBA and .476 BABIP. He is also seeing the ball really well and striking out a career low 15.3% against them.

His power stroke is pretty solid against lefties this season as well, as evidenced by his .255 ISO and 52.2% hard hit rating. He is also averaging one home run every 15 at-bats against them in 2017.

Corey Dickerson, OF, TB@TEX

There might not be a hotter hitter in all of baseball than Dickerson. He is smashing righties, as he has his entire career, and bats leadoff for the Rays. He’s often overlooked because he’s expensive and plays for the Rays, but savvy DFS owners have been pivoting to him over playing people like Nelson Cruz and Mookie Betts.

Against righties in 2017, Corey has a .416 wOBA and .364 BABIP. He has a fantastic .331 batting average and continues to get on base at a high rate.

Dickerson is an extra base hit monster this season and his .303 ISO against righties proves it. He makes hard contact 40.9% of the time and has a strong 170 wRC+ rating.

In 152 plate appearances, he has hit eleven home runs which is an average of one home run every 15 at bats. That would easily be his best home run rate of his entire career, including the seasons that he played for the Colorado Rockies.

Next: Mike Trout down, time to scramble?

Deciding who to use in MLB DFS can be an overwhelming task. Researching MLB is a skill on its own and applying it to DFS can be a hurdle that many don’t want to bother trying to jump. If today is your day to give that hurdle a try then lock these players in as your core and build around them.

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