Brewers Jimmy Nelson: Heating up at the right time

By Bill Pivetz | Jun 3, 2017

May 5, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson (52) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

The Brewers rotation had high expectations in the spring. It took a while but Jimmy Nelson had a good May and is a waiver add for the summer.

The Milwaukee Brewers looked like a favorite to make a splash in the National League Central. The offense had some new pieces with a lot of upside. The bullpen had some solid pieces, but it was the starting rotation that had people excited. While it took longer, things are looking up, especially for Jimmy Nelson.

Nelson had a 5.34 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .301 opponent batting average and 23:10 K:BB ratio in 28.2 innings. He wasn’t drafted in ESPN leagues, but that is still a disappointing first month. But as the calendar changed to May, so did Nelson’s game.

His first start was cut short due to a two hour and 26 minute rain delay. He did pitch three shutout innings on 30 pitches. Nelson’s next start was great. He shutout the Boston Red Sox over 6.2 innings while allowing four hits and four walks and struck out eight.

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Nelson picked up another win against the San Diego Padres. He suffered his third loss of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays. Nelson’s last two starts are what’s giving him a boost in fantasy value and ownership.

Over his last two games, Nelson pitched a combined 15 innings while giving up one run on 12 hits and zero walks and struck out 21 batters. Zero walks and 21 strikeouts. That is great control.

All of his batted ball ratios are within a percent point of each other from 2016 to 2017. The only big difference I see is that he isn’t giving up as many home runs, so far. Nelson owns a 10.3 HR/FB rate, about two percent lower than his career average. This is despite an uptick in his hard-hit rate.

Nelson shutdown the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers in those two games. He had the Brewers’ best ERA, WHIP and strikeout total last month. Somehow, Nelson was able to do this in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. That stadium ranks sixth in home runs, 11th in hits and third in runs scored.

Nelson’s next start is another favorable one. He faces the San Francisco Giants on June 7. The Giants hit .226/.284/.355 in May with 96 runs scored and 26 home runs, 29th and 28th in the league respectively.

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If Nelson can keep up the hot streak at home with the number of strikeouts and lack of walks, he is a must-add for all leagues. With the number of injured pitchers, Nelson’s current streak is giving him value. He’s been added in 6.7 percent of ESPN leagues over the last week and it continues to climb. Nelson has pitched well against the National League West and this could be another good start.

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