Jimmy Butler can unlock Andrew Wiggins’ full two-way potential for the Timberwolves
Even though Andrew Wiggins is entering his fourth season with the Timberwolves, he’s only scratching the surface of his potential. At 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot wingspan, he’s built perfectly to be a versatile forward in today’s position-less NBA. It helps that he’s an elite athlete who has proven he can compete on both ends, with his ability to space the floor, create his own shot off the dribble and guard multiple positions. While he’s yet to put it all together with the sort of consistency needed to be an elite two-way player — his effort on defense has been particularly puzzling in the early stages of his career — there’s no question his best days are still ahead of him.
There is a good chance Wiggins would’ve eventually reached the full limit of his potential by himself had the Timberwolves not traded for Jimmy Butler during the 2017 NBA Draft. With Butler now on the team, however, Wiggins might take the next step in his development far quicker than anyone could’ve imagined.
There is some overlap in skill with Butler and Wiggins that could create tension between them on the court. For example, 53.6 percent of Wiggins’ field goals were unassisted last season compared to 59.1 percent for Butler. That wouldn’t be a problem if they were both knockdown shooters, but spot-ups make up around 10.0 percent of their scoring opportunities. With Wiggins and Butler needing the ball in their hands to be effective — in addition to Karl-Anthony Towns being the leading scorer for the Timberwolves last season — it might take them some time to figure out how they can get their numbers efficiently without stepping on each other’s toes.
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Where those similarities begin to help Wiggins in terms of his long-term development is he’s basically a carbon copy of Butler on paper. For one, they get their numbers in similar fashion. Not only do they score the bulk of their points in the pick-and-roll — 36.7 percent for Butler and 32.1 percent for Wiggins — they’re almost identical in how often they score in transition, isolation and off of cuts. Butler is obviously better than Wiggins in almost every area, but playing alongside a better version of himself should help Wiggins become a more complete all-around scorer provided, of course, that he’s willing to learn from Butler.
As you can see in the table below, Butler and Wiggins even like to get their points from the same areas on the floor. Both were amongst the league leaders in points generated off of pull-ups, too, with the majority of those coming from midrange. Wiggins made 2.6 midrange pull-ups per game at a 37.7 percent clip last season compared to 2.2 midrange pull-ups per game at a 37.2 percent clip for Butler. It’s a similar case on drives: 7.1 points per game on 46.5 percent shooting for Wiggins last season and 9.4 points per game on 50.6 percent shooting for Butler.
Again, the skill overlap could be troublesome to begin with especially if the Timberwolves fail to surround them with the right supporting case. With Butler a top-15 player in the prime of his career, it’s far more likely Wiggins will have to make more sacrifices next season. He’ll have to become a better shooter in order to space the floor for Butler and Towns while learning how he can become the type of secondary ball-handler needed to make the Timberwolves unstoppable offensively.
But in terms of his future development, learning first-hand from someone who has become of the most feared wings in the NBA by playing a similar style could be what Wiggins needs to take the next step. Butler and Wiggins will also be able to attack mismatches in a variety of ways, with both of them having the skill to take smaller guards in the post. Involving them in a pick-and-roll with Butler as the ball-handler and Wiggins as the roll man might force teams to switch, paving the way for one of them to get off a quality shot on the block. As long as they can space the floor for each other along the way, it’ll help bridge some of those gaps.
Butler’s influence on Wiggins’ growth could be even more impactful on the other end of the floor, where Wiggins has struggled as a member of the Timberwolves. It’s easy to forget he entered the NBA with the upside needed to be an All-NBA level defender — he moves well laterally and his combination of quickness, length and athleticism gives him the tools to match up with at least three positions. You can see that potential come together on possessions like this from his rookie season, when Wiggins used his speed to stay in front of James Harden and his length to block him in isolation.
The problem is those plays seem to be happening less and less. The Timberwolves, who ranked 26th in defensive efficiency last season, went from giving up 104.8 points per possession when Wiggins was on the bench to 110.4 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court. The former was good enough for the Timberwolves to place in the top 10 in defensive efficiency with the likes of the Grizzlies, Raptors and Pelicans whereas the latter put them ahead of only the Nuggets and Lakers at the bottom of the league.
Those numbers don’t necessarily paint the whole picture — Wiggins certainly isn’t the only one to blame for them struggling when he was on the court — but they do explain some of his struggles on defense. As FanRag’s Zach Harper explained last season, Wiggins isn’t a bad defender at this stage of his career but his biggest problem is he’s “a reactor as opposed to someone who is consistently in the position he needs to be in.”
With that in mind, Butler could help Wiggins improve defensively in two ways. The first is that by becoming the primary playmaker for the Timberwolves, there won’t be as much pressure on Wiggins to create for himself and others. Doing so means he will be able to take more of a backseat on offense and save more of his energy for defense. The second is Butler is one of the best individual defenders in the NBA. The advanced statistics say as much, as does the tape. In the same way Wiggins should be able to learn from how Butler picks and chooses his spots on offense, he will learn first-hand from someone who became an All-Defensive talent under Tom Thibodeau in Chicago.
Put it this way: If Wiggins can’t become a lockdown defender with Thibodeau as his coach and with Butler as his teammate, it’s hard to see him ever reaching that level. Butler will be able to guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player, leaving Wiggins to guard the No. 2 option. If he can improve in those situations, perhaps he and Butler will eventually switch those defensive assignments to give Butler more rest on defense.
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The addition of Butler alone should turn the Timberwolves a playoff team starting from next season. The core of Butler, Wiggins and Towns has too much firepower for them to not improve on their 31-51 record last season. Where they’ll begin to maximize their potential is if Wiggins starts to become the player the Timberwolves expected him to be when they traded Kevin Love for him in 2014. If Wiggins becomes Butler 1.5 or 2.0 on offense, it’ll give them two players who can dominate mismatches and score in volume. If Wiggins also becomes Butler 1.5 or 2.0 on defense, they’ll have a backcourt capable of matching up with the best 1-2 punches in the NBA.
Whether or not Wiggins ever becomes that player remains to be seen, but with Butler now on the Timberwolves, his odds are much higher.