NBA Free Agency 2017: 5 offseason targets for the Denver Nuggets
2. Paul Millsap
The Nuggets have expressed serious interest in Paul Millsap over the past two seasons. According to Brian Windhorst of ESPN, Denver almost traded for him at the 2016 deadline and rumors of a trade to the Nuggets resurfaced as the 2017 deadline approached last February.
At age 32, Millsap doesn’t exactly align with the timeline of Denver’s young roster. On the court however, he would be a perfect fit next to Nikola Jokic. Units with Jokic at center have tended to hemorrhage points. Millsap would immediately bring All-Defense level prowess to the Nuggets at the four spot. He reads passes intuitively, getting his hands in passing lanes and piling up steals. He’s also quick enough to switch onto most wing players as well. Millsap was one of the main reasons the Hawks had a rock solid defense over the past three seasons; they ranked within the top ten in defensive efficiency in all of them. The Nuggets finished last in the league in creating turnovers, and were within the bottom five in opponent 2-point percentage (per Basketball-Reference). Adding Millsap to Denver would vastly improve their defense in these critical areas.
On offense he’s a stretchy big with a versatile skill set that would improve Denver’s already impressive attack. Millsap is also an excellent passer, and was critical in fueling the beautiful motion offense of the 60-win Hawks back in 2014-2015. His streaky 3-point shooting and declining rebounding are concerns to keep in mind though.
Signing Millsap would also be costly. He’s past the ten year experience threshold, so teams can offer him a max contract that will start at about $34.7 million with 5 percent annual raises (per Nate Duncan of the Dunc’d On Podcast). That would put his potential earnings at a little over $155 million over four years. Atlanta can offer a fifth year and 8 percent annual raises, which would put the total contract value just over $200 million. Millsap’s free agency decision will likely depend on whether or not Atlanta offers that fifth year. We saw last summer that the Hawks did not extend that offer to Al Horford, so there is a good chance that he’ll walk.
Millsap is probably the biggest name on the market that the Nuggets have a real chance to sign. He also might be the riskiest top tier guy available. Adding him on a four-year max with a player option in year four would limit the malleability of this Nuggets team in the future. To make the signing palatable and maintain some future space, the Nuggets would probably need to trade two of the Wilson Chandler, Darrell Arthur, Kenneth Faried trio. Pulling that off shouldn’t be a problem. Acquiring Millsap could run Denver into tax territory down the road however, when the extensions of Garry Harris and Nikola Jokic take effect.
A max for Millsap could look brutal on Denver’s cap sheet in three or four years (he would be slotted for $42.9 million in year four!), but he raises Denver’s ceiling substantially. Having Millsap on the roster at close $35 million is probably better than paying Gallo and Plumlee though. Both of them will equally clog up cap space but don’t provide the same on court value.