DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 4

We only have six night games today, but we still have some really good pitchers going, including the ace of the day. Is he worth paying for? Who can we pair with him to make a cash worthy lineup? Let’s check some stats!

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The money line last night was up to 123.9. The winning lineup used the surging Masahiro Tanaka along with Aaron Nola and huge nights from Tommy Pham, Raimel Tapia, and Yadier Molina to push his total to 205.3

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Late Lineup

P: Corey Kluber ($12,600): You can really make a case that Kluber is a better option tonight than Kershaw. The Padres are a much easier draw than Arizona, but Kershaw is money at home. However, if you are looking to be contrarian, Kluber is an excellent plan B. The Padres are at or near the bottom in nearly every offensive category. Kluber also has a 2.85 ERA at home. Moreover, he has rattled off six straight quality starts since coming off the DL. Look out San Diego!

P: Sean Newcomb ($6,700): Here is something a little more unusual for you all. There is a complete lack of mid-range options on the night slate unless you want to throw David Price out there against the Rangers (I don’t). So I will slide down a little farther for Newcomb, who has a 1.48 ERA in his first four career starts. A club with as much power as Houston coming into SunTrust Park is harrowing, but the Astros will be without the DH, and Newcomb has a 1.96 home ERA in three starts. He has only allowed one homer in 18.1 home innings as well, so he looks like he could be the ideal pitcher for this park. Of course, this is Houston. They have blown up plenty of better pitchers than Newcomb this year, so there is significant risk.

C: Jonathan Lucroy ($3,000): Lucroy is only 1-7 against David Price, but I still don’t really think Price is back to 100% just yet. Lucroy may be able to take some advantage here. The Rangers as a whole are hitting .287 in 160 at bats against Price. A Rangers stack may seem unconventional, but it could pay off.

1B: Matt Adams ($3,700): Peacock throws gas, but he still wont last through six innings. The Astros have a solid bullpen, but still. Adams at SunTrust Park is a good thing. He should get at least two cracks at Peacock. If he can catch up to one, it is worth your while to use him.

2B: Jose Peraza ($3,300): Peraza had a hit leading off yesterday, and he could be there again if Billy Hamilton‘s back isn’t better. At any rate, Peraza is a cheap way to get exposure to Coors. He is struggling this year though, so you likely have a better chance at getting nothing than double digits. However, for tournaments, this is an acceptable risk.

3B: Eugenio Suarez ($3,900): Suarez has the pop to hit it out, and gets the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland. For obvious reasons, the Reds are cheaper, but man, if you can find a way to stack Rockies against Homer Bailey, it could pay off. Then again, these two teams only amassed eight runs combined last night.

SS: Zack Cozart ($4,300): Cozart is having an All-Star season this year, and could be a good deal for this price. He is hitting .316 in 14 career games at Coors Field. Facing a left hander only boosts his value a little more.

OF: Charlie Blackmon ($5,400): Whether you are stacking Rockies or not Blackmon should find a way into your lineup. He has ten triples and 11 homers in just 140 home at bats this year. Homer Bailey doesn’t stand a chance!

OF: Raimel Tapia ($3,900): Tapia had a big game yesterday, and is threatening to hang on to his playing time even when Ian Desmond and Gerardo Parra get back. At any rate, Bailey is batting practice waiting to happen. Tapia wont be this cheap after today, so enjoy it while you can!

OF: Bradley Zimmer ($3,100): Zimmer has slowed down in his rookie year, but he is still keeping his average up. Trevor Cahill presents a good opportunity for him to get on base once or twice. That’s good enough for my bargain play!

Next: DraftKings Late Lineup 2

P: Clayton Kershaw ($12,900): As with every night the Dodgers ace takes the hill, it’s Kershaw, then everyone else. His matchup tonight is a bit tougher. After all, Arizona has hit .216 with four homers and 17 RBI against him in 148 at bats. The problem for Arizona is that Kershaw is at home, where he is even more dominant. Kershaw has made 146 starts at Dodger Stadium. He is 77-30 with a 2.04 ERA wtih 15 complete games, nine shutouts, and 1123 strikeouts in 998.1 innings pitched. As usual, fade him at your own risk.

P: Brad Peacock ($9,600): Peacock has a 2.72 ERA and 73 strikeouts in just 49.2 innings pitched. Who cares if he only goes five innings? That’s still enough for a win, and long enough for him to rack up close to ten strikeouts. He could be a truly elite option if he could last longer in games, but when he is nearly unhittable for five innings, you can do worse.

C: Austin Barnes ($3,600): Barnes has only faced Patrick Corbin four times. His one hit is a solo homer. The Dodgers are hitting .336 in 119 at bats against Corbin, so a stack may be in order here. Finding a way to afford it is the difficult part unless you fade both Kluber and Kershaw.

1B: Mike Napoli ($3,400): Napoli is only 8-36(.222) against David Price, but he has two walks, two doubles, a solo homer, and three runs scored in his career. That’s good enough for me to take a chance on Napoli at this bargain price.

2B: Jose Pirela ($2,900): Pirela is going to have his hands full against Kluber, but he still gets on base quite a bit. He owns a .290 average with three homers, 12 RBI, and three steals in 23 games. There is very little available in this price range at second base, and Pirela is easily the most talented of the lot.

3B: Adrian Beltre ($3,500): Beltre is 11-38(.289) with a walk, four doubles, two homers, five runs scored, and six RBI in his career against David Price. Beltre’s power has slowed down some this year, but he still gets on base a lot, which decreases the chances of him being a total bust in your DFS lineup.

SS: Elvis Andrus ($4,300): Andrus is 14-29(.483) with seven walks, a double, eight runs scored, seven steals, and eight RBI against David Price. He is leading off for a team that could really do some damage if Price isn’t quite right yet. I am willing to pay a little bit of a premium since Andrus has hit Price at every stage of his career.

OF: Shin-soo Choo ($3,500): Choo is 10-24(.417) with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and five RBI off of Price. How is he still this cheap? Choo has always been able to hold his own against left handed pitching. That makes Choo a bargain waiting to happen in matchups like this.

OF: Trayce Thompson ($3,300): I am going for more exposure to left handers here, and this is a cheap way to do it. Thompson has a career .359 wOBA against left handed pitchers, and is 3-9 against Corbin in his career. He may not hit a long ball, but he should at least rack up some points.

OF: Jake Marisnick ($2,900): Marisnick continues to be a superb bargain whenever he is in the lineup, but with the absence of the DH for Houston, make sure you can check back before lock just in case Marisnick is not in there.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!