DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 5
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 5
We only have double the night games that we had last night in the main DraftKings tournament. We don’t have quite the marquee pitchers that last night had, but we definitely have much better middle options if you don’t feel like paying for pitching.
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The money line last night was up to 126.45 DraftKings points. Both of my lineups missed because I wasn’t able to get back to check on them due to holiday festivities and the lack of internet.
The winning lineup was way up to 244.45. He used Kershaw and Peacock and a Houston stack to take the whole thing down. Having Andrew Benintendi‘s 51 DraftKings points didn’t hurt either.
These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!
Next: DraftKings Late Lineup
P: Alex Wood ($11,600): The Diamondbacks have actually hit Wood pretty hard in his career. They own a .296 average with five homers and 15 RBI in just 81 at bats. So what gives? Wood has been dominant this season. He does not have a game in which he scored less than 17 DraftKings points. That kind of floor makes me feel better about paying this kind of money for a pitcher. I trust Wood more than deGrom, who owns a 4.56 ERA on the road, and has to face a potent Nationals team.
P: Mike Leake ($6,400): The Marlins are only hitting .214 against Leake with 26 strikeouts in 103 at bats. They do have three homers, but the lack of base runners only netted the fish six runs. Leake has a solid 3.13 ERA at home, and the Marlins don’t have that prolific of an offense. A quality start should be in the cards for Leake tonight.
C: Manny Pina ($3,700): There seems to be a straight platoon between Pina and Vogt. With the Orioles switching from tomato can Chris Tillman to unknown Jayson Aquino, the Brewers likely will pull the switch from Vogt to Pina because of Vogt’s struggles against lefties. Not like it matters. Pina is still a very good hitter.
1B: Eric Thames ($4,300): Thames homered twice yesterday, and he could go deep at least once more again today. I don’t really care what hand Aquino throws with. Thames has elite power, and Aquino likely wont be in the game very long anyway. The Orioles’ bullpen isn’t much better than the rotation right now, so Thames will have plenty of chances.
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,900): Odor is 7-16(.438) with three doubles, two homers, and seven RBI against Doug Fister. Did I mention that Odor has three homers in the last five games? He is red hot right now anyway. Now he gets to face a guy he has owned in his career. Odor is way too cheap tonight.
3B: Travis Shaw ($4,500): Shaw also went deep yesterday against the Orioles. This series may as well be batting practice for Milwaukee with as beleaguered as the Baltimore pitchers are lately. I have no problems stacking Brewers instead of paying the premium for Coors Field. The Orioles are a bad pitching staff right now, and Milwaukee is a very powerful team.
SS: Orlando Arcia ($3,800): Arcia has two homers already in July in just 11 at bats. He is coming around with the rest of the team, and is way too cheap for the way he is hitting the ball right now.
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,400): Jason Vargas has had an outstanding year, but Nelson Cruz has owned him in the past. Cruz is 10-30 with seven walks, two doubles, four homers, seven runs scored, and eight RBI in his career against Vargas. He has even stolen a base. Yes. Nelson Cruz stole a base against him. I can’t find a good reason not to use Cruz.
OF: Shin-soo Choo ($4,100): Choo is 12-33(.364) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, five runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Fister. Choo’s price is finally starting to match his importance in the lineup, but he is worth paying for today.
OF: Adam Jones ($3,300): Jones is 8-23(.348) with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Matt Garza. Jones’s struggles have resulted in him being dirt cheap here. I’m glad he is because I need the salary relief here.
Next: DraftKings Late Lineup 2
P: Zack Godley ($8,200): Godley dominated the Dodgers in his start against them last year, allowing just two hits and two runs while striking out six. His chances of winning against Alex Wood aren’t great, but wins are a crapshoot most of the time anyway. Godley should be a superb value at this price range tonight.
P: Trevor Bauer ($7,300): Bauer has shaved a run and a half off of his ERA over his last ten starts. That was also about the time he remembered that he had a curveball. The Padres are one of the worst offensive teams in the league going against a pitcher that has rediscovered his swing and miss stuff. He also has a great chance at a win against Luis Perdomo. Bauer looks like a huge bargain tonight.
C: Buster Posey ($4,000): Daniel Norris has a bloated 5.74 ERA at home this year. While the Giants don’t have much for power, Posey is a great contact hitter with a platoon advantage in a huge ballpark. He should be able to drive a couple to the gap today.
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($4,400): I touched on why I’m not using deGrom a little earlier. Another reason is that the Nationals have four homers and 12 RBI off of him in 106 at bats. Zimmerman is 5-16(.312) with two homers and seven RBI off of deGrom. If anyone get to deGrom today, it likely will be Zimmerman.
2B: Scooter Gennett ($4,700): Anyone that has a four homer game to his credit has some power. That kind of power at Coors Field is usually worth paying up for. Jon Gray looked really good in his only home start this year, and he looked really good in his return from the disabled list, so there is risk involved here. It is really hard to ignore Gennett’s potential here though.
3B: Jose Ramirez ($5,000): Ramirez has cooled off some, but he is still averaging 13 DraftKings points per game over his last ten games. He has been even better at home this year, hitting .347 with six homers and five steals. Look for him to get a couple of good shots in against Perdomo.
SS: Freddy Galvis ($3,400): Galvis is 3-9 with a walk, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Gerrit Cole. Cole has been battered lately, allowing at least seven runs in three of his last six games. I don’t trust the Phillies enough for a stack, but with the history of Galvis and the recent struggles of Cole, I definitely want a piece of this.
OF: Bryce Harper ($5,300): Harper is 9-24(.375) with five walks, two doubles, a solo homer, and five runs scored off of Jacob deGrom. His price isn’t tempered much by his matchup against an ace, but he still may be worth it.
OF: Eddie Rosario ($3,900): All ten of Rosario’s long balls have come against right handed pitching, and nine of those have come at Target Field. The price is right to take a chance on him against rookie Parker Bridwell.
OF: A.J. Pollock ($3,800): I know that Pollock is fresh off of injury facing a bona fide ace, but he is 6-13 with a double, a steal, two homers, four runs scored, and three RBI against Wood in his career. This price is too low for someone who is as potent as Pollock, no matter who he is facing.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!