Fansided

Yankees: Did Aaron Judge use up all of his power?

By Bill Pivetz

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 07: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees connect on a solo home run in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium on July 7, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 07: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees connect on a solo home run in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium on July 7, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Yankees power prospect Aaron Judge won the 2017 Home Run Derby. What can former winners tell us about his second half performance?

The New York Yankees stole the show Monday night. It started with Gary Sanchez taking down defending champ Giancarlo Stanton in the first round. That was quickly overshadowed by the comeback Aaron Judge made against Justin Bour in their first round matchup. At the end Judge won the whole thing, defeating Miguel Sano 11-10.

But, we’ve seen this before. A monster hitter wins the Home Run Derby but cannot replicate that power for the second half of the season. Will Judge be another victim or can he maintain his power surge for fantasy owners on their way to the playoffs?

Judge entered the All-Star break with an MLB-leading 30 home runs. He has a 37.5 fly ball rate, down from his short time from last year. However, he has a 41.7 HR/FB rate. Judge has cut his strikeout rate almost in half, 44.2 to 29.8 percent.

More from Fantasy Baseball

In such a short amount of time, Judge has made the appropriate adjustments to become one of the best hitters in the league. Fantasy owners who drafted him late have been rewarded with a spectacular first half.

Going forward, though, what should you expect from Judge now that he hit 47 home runs Monday night?

Well, first, I’m going to look at the performances in the first and second halves from the previous five winners, starting with Prince Fielder.

Fielder hit 15 HRs, 63 RBI and .299/.380/.505 in 86 first-half games. He actually hit better in the second half, albeit in 10 fewer games. He hit another 15 homers with 45 RBI and a .331/.448/.558 line.

Fielder’s fly ball and HR/FB rates went up in the second half. He was also hitting the ball harder, 33.1 to 38.1 hard hit rate.

The first player, first curse debunk.

Yoenis Cespedes won the Derby back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, he had a higher batting average in the second half but hit fewer home runs. He did only play in 56 games in that span.

The following season gave us the same results. Cespedes hit for a higher average in the second half but hit just eight home runs. Again, the All-Star break is not the true halfway point so the numbers are a little skewed based on games played.

In 2013, Cespedes’ fly ball rate dropped in the second half but his HR/FB went up about two percent. He, like Fielder, was making harder contact. However, he saw a drop in his HR/FB rate in the second half of 2014. The contact was just as good, though.

Todd Frazier won the Derby in 2015. He hit 25 homers in the first half and just 10 in the second half. His average also dropped from .284 to .220. Frazier’s fly ball rate dropped two percent, ground ball rate went up 3.2 percent and HR/FB rate dropped eight percent.He was also striking out six percent more in the second half.

He was also striking out six percent more in the second half.  This was the biggest difference in splits of the five winners.

Stanton was the winner last year. This was tough to analyze because he only played in 43 second-half games. The first half was amazing with 20 home runs and a 26.3 HR/FB rate. In the shortened second half, Stanton hit just seven HRs with a 16.3 HR/FB rate and 48.0 hard hit rate.

I could have gone further back to make or break my point, but I think the last five years is a good sample size. Frazier was the only hitter to experience a huge drop-off between halves after winning the Home Run Derby.

Next: Reds' Luis Castillo: A deep second-half weapon?

As for Judge, I don’t expect any change in performance once the second half picks up. He is doing things to a baseball not seen before. He will hit close to another 30 home runs and if you own him, enjoy every minute of it.

If you are interested in seeing how the other HR Derby competitors fared, check out Beyondtheboxscore.com’s piece here.

Home/Fantasy Baseball