While many teams plan to lay low until the Warriors are no longer dominating the NBA in ways only Michael Jordan’s Bulls can relate to, the Rockets are trying to do the opposite. After acquiring Chris Paul in a trade at the end of June, they’ve now reportedly turned their attention to acquiring Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony. James Harden, Paul and Anthony were all teammates in the 2012 Olympics, so Anthony would represent the final piece of Rockets general manager Daryl Morey’s puzzle this offseason to bring a USA Basketball core to Houston.
However, despite being a 10-time All-Star who is destined for the Hall of Fame when he retires, it’s hard to say how Anthony would fit in with the Rockets. There are already questions about whether or not there are enough possessions to go around for Harden and Paul — both of whom finished in the top-10 in usage last season — and Anthony is another player who is used to having the ball in his hands.
Of the 22.4 points per game Anthony averaged last season, 5.2 came from isolation possessions. According to NBA.com, they made up 23.1 percent of his scoring on the season and he ranked in the 78.3 percentile with 0.99 points per isolation possession. An additional 16.7 percent of his scoring came in the post, where he ranked in the 62.6 percentile with 0.92 points per possession. That means 39.8 percent of Anthony’s offense last season came from 1-on-1 plays. It was even higher the season before, when 45.9 percent of his scoring came from isolations and post-ups.
Read More: Patterson might be the best low-key signing of the offseason
There are two ways to take in those numbers. The first is that Anthony would struggle to share the court with Harden and Paul. Because they’re going to be the primary and secondary ball-handlers for the Rockets next season, Anthony’s touches would likely decrease significantly as the third option, making his isolation-heavy game an awkward fit. The second is that Anthony would have an opportunity to complement them perfectly by being a matchup killer. He wouldn’t score as often in isolation as he has in the past, but he would make Harden and Paul harder to guard with his ability to create his own shot with ease when needed.
Just imagine a pick-and-roll between Paul and Anthony. Paul is one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the NBA with his ability to score at three levels and Anthony can comfortably pop for 3-pointers and mid-range jump shots. With at least two shooters surrounding them — one of which would be Harden, who ranked in the 90.6 percentile last season with 1.20 points per spot-up possession — they would have plenty of room to operate.
While there are a number of ways this hypothetical possession could play out, trying to contain it with the two defenders directly involved wouldn’t likely work because Paul is a magician in those situations. If he’s not pulling-up from the perimeter or mid-range, he’s getting to the basket where he shot 60.3 percent last season, or finding the roller for an open shot. Sending a third one to crowd the paint is also risky because it means a shooter would be left open on the perimeter. Switching isn’t the solution, either, because it would set the table for one of them to attack in isolation.
If the defense decided to switch, Paul would have an opportunity to call his number if a less capable big switched onto him.
If a smaller guard switched onto Anthony, though, he could take them directly to the post for one of his patented fadeaways.
Whether it’s Harden or Paul running the pick-and-roll, pairing them with Anthony would create similar opportunities as the Stephen Curry-Kevin Durant pick-and-rolls the Warriors destroyed the Cavaliers with in the 2017 NBA Finals because of the pressure the ball handler can put on the defense at the point of attack. It obviously wouldn’t be as potent of a pairing, but it would give the Rockets a scary 1-2 punch.
Assuming Anthony is comfortable being the third option at this stage of his career, he would also benefit from being matched up with every team’s second or third best defender. Anthony was already one of the best 1-on-1 scorers going up against some of the league’s best defenders, so attacking less capable defenders could turn him into an efficiency monster. Having that sort of weapon on the roster means there wouldn’t be as much pressure on Harden and Paul to create every trip down the floor and it would give them someone else who can carry the offense in spurts when one (or both) of them need a breather.
Another reason to be optimistic about Anthony’s fit with the Rockets is that he’s an excellent spot-up shooter. He averaged 4.3 points per game from spot-ups last season and ranked in the 93.8 percentile with 1.23 points per possession, which was comparable to Ryan Anderson, Klay Thompson and Khris Middleton. He made 41.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 48.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot mid-range jumpers as well, which was comparable to C.J. Miles, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. His development into one of the best outside shooters in the NBA certainly hasn’t made him less dependent on isolations, but Anthony still finished the 2016-17 season with 42.5 percent of his baskets being assisted.
Anthony is also a great pull-up shooter from inside the 3-point line. Not only was he among the league leaders with 7.9 pull-up points per game last season — only nine players created more points than him in those situations — Anthony made 45.9 percent of his mid-range pull-ups. The combination of him being able to consistently convert catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and mid-range pull-ups when defenders run him off the line makes him a nightmare for opposing stretch fours to match up with.
Although Anthony has made a career out of taking and making tough shots, he has always knocked down open 3-pointers at a high rate. Since 2013, he has made 149 of the 320 wide open 3-pointers (46.5 percent) he has attempted. For some perspective, Ryan Anderson attempted 288 wide open 3-pointers last season alone whereas the most Anthony has taken in a single season is 131. He would likely see that number increase significantly playing alongside Harden and Paul, and history says that he would come close to making half of those attempts.
Anthony’s efficiency in isolation and on spot-ups gives him the tools to be a terrifying third option in today’s NBA. If the Rockets were to trade Anderson and not someone like Trevor Ariza to acquire him, he would log the bulk of his minutes at power forward, which isn’t something he has done since the 2013-14 season. There are certainly questions about what he could provide the Rockets defensively — he’s never been an elite defender, although his motivation on that end of the floor may have slipped in recent years given the situation in New York — but he has the potential to thrive alongside the likes of Harden and Paul as a small ball four.
Next: Basketball is a sanctuary in Utica, New York
Think of it like this: Harden, Paul and Anthony have long been some of the best 1-on-1 scorers in the NBA and they can each spot-up on the perimeter in ways defenses can’t ignore. Even though they’re all used to being the ones making the plays rather than being on the receiving end of them, the Rockets would have a versatile trio who can do everything in a vacuum a head coach could ever want in a player.
Seeing as Mike D’Antoni was able to turn the Rockets into the second best offensive team in the NBA with only Harden orchestrating the offense last season, the sky would be the limit with Paul, Anthony and a decent supporting cast involved. With all that in mind, it’s no wonder Morey seems to be doing all he can to acquire Anthony.