Which Pitchers Will Hurt Us Least In The Early July 22 DraftKings Tournament?

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 21: Pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies delivers a pitch during the fifth inning of a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park on July 21, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Brewers 6-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 22

We only have two Saturday afternoon games on our DraftKings slate. Whenever we only have four pitchers to choose from, it can get pretty messy. With one of the games at Wrigley on a hot summer day with the wind likely blowing out, it makes it even more treacherous, especially when the two best pitchers are in that game. Who can we trust in our lineups? Let’s take a look!

More from DFS

The money line yesterday was down to 121.45. both of my lineups finished in triple digits. One missed the cut by 0.2 points. Using Alex Wood ensured that I couldn’t get in. The other lineup suffered through a failed Rockies stack.

The winning lineup was down a bit to 221.95. He used Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola, so his lineup was head and shoulders above most right there. He used his Pirates/A’s stack to take it home, even though the A’s scored just five runs.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup

ATLANTA, GA – JULY 17: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on July 17, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

P: Jon Lester ($12,200): First thing first: there is no way Lester is worth this price. If you play the all day tournament, stay far away from this one. However, with only four pitchers to choose from, we have to look at this in a different light. Moore is clearly the best option at AT&T Park. I trust Lester a lot more than Wainwright or Perdomo, so Lester it is! The caveat here is that Lester got bombarded in his last two home starts before the break. This is an ugly slate, but I still have to go Lester. After all, the Cardinals are only hitting .244 with three homers and 12 runs in 119 at bats with 33 strikeouts. At the very least, Lester will get the most strikeouts on this slate.

P: Matt Moore ($7,200): Moore has only faced one current Padre, shortstop Erick Aybar. That isn’t enough of a sample size, but the Padres are one of the worst offenses in the league and Moore has a 4.20 ERA at home compared to 7.61 on the road. Despite those stats, Moore is still safer than Wainwright on the road or Perdomo. That’s how bad the pitching is today.

C: Carson Kelly ($2,200): I wanted Willson Contreras here, but I couldn’t swing it with Lester and still field a good team. So Kelly seems like a good substitute since Yadier Molina will likely be out again. I like Molina if he starts, and if he does, I will likely put him in. Otherwise, Kelly is a good punt play, much safer than other catchers at this price.

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($5,500): Rizzo is 11-40(.275) with five walks, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has an atrocious 7.69 ERA on the road this year. He has pitched well against the Cubs in two starts this year, but both of those were in St. Louis. Wainwright is 10-2 career in Wrigley Field, but he still has a 3.89 ERA there in 22 appearances. Stacking Cubs isn’t a bad idea if you can afford it.

2B: Joe Panik ($3,300): Panik is 6-10 with three doubles, five runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Luis Perdomo. The Giants aren’t a loaded offensive team, but they are hitting .360 in 75 career at bats against Perdomo. They are cheap enough to stack and to use Lester, so that works for me.

3B: Eduardo Nunez ($3,800): Nunez is only 1-2 with a single against Perdomo, but he is auditioning for a job, essentially. He gets a ticket out of San Francisco if he can perform well over the next ten days.

SS: Addison Russell ($4,300): Russell is 6-12 with a walk, three doubles, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Wainwright. He, like many others on this slate, is overpriced, but this past history makes it a little easier to add him to the stack.

OF: Kyle Schwarber ($4,100): Schwarber is 0-4 with two walks against Wainwright, but he has never faced him in Wrigley. I will take my chances that Schwarber gets into one here.

OF: Brandon Belt ($3,700): Belt is 6-13(.462) with a double, a homer, three runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Perdomo. Belt may be the closest think to a bargain today (he is only $200 more than Hunter Pence, who is hitting .155 in July), so I definitely want him in my lineup.

OF: Jose Pirela ($3,700): Pirela has slowed down since he stormed into the majors, but he has at least three DraftKings points in every game since July 8th. That kind of consistency can be nice on a slate like this.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!