MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 24
By Matt Rogers
We’re back with another MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. Focused on the Monday, July 24th MLB FanDuel Main slate, this is a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.
The Cubs are hosting another afternoon matinée with the White Sox, narrowing the number of games down to only twelve for the Monday night Main slate. That limits our pitching list to only 24.
However, there are six starters with a SIERA below 4.00, and five starters with a strikeout ratio above 25%. So there’s plenty of great options tonight, along with some value. For offensive-focused picks, we also have seven pitchers with a 5.00+ SIERA, and twelve pitchers with a WHIP at or above 1.40.
After sifting through all the advanced pitching metrics, we’ve narrowed our focus down to seven games, have an obvious top pitcher to consider, with several top-pitcher fade ideas, value picks, and pitchers to target for offensive stacking tonight.
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Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:
HOU Brad Peacock at PHI Vince Velasquez (7:05pm EDT)
CIN Tim Adleman at CLE Josh Tomlin (7:10pm EDT)
BAL Kevin Gausman at TB Blake Snell (7:10pm EDT)
ATL R.A. Dickey at ARZ Zack Greinke (9:40pm EDT)
BOS Eduardo Rodríguez at SEA James Paxton (10:10pm EDT)
NYM Jacob deGrom at SD Clayton Richard (10:10pm EDT)
PIT Gerrit Cole at SF Matt Cain (10:15pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
One of the pleasant surprises for DFS baseball this season has been the re-surging Zack Greinke ($9,900). Of all the starting pitchers on the mound tonight, Greinke has the best SIERA, 3.34, and best WHIP, 1.05. Zack also has an awesome 27.9% strikeout rate and low 5.4% walk rate.
Greinke was roughed-up in Cincinnati last week, but that game aside, Zack had been on a roll with two quality starts and seven or eight strikeouts against the Rockies and Reds, to start July. Tonight, Greinke has a solid match-up, welcoming the Braves to Chase Field. I would typically be high on Greinke with such a palpable $9.9K salary, but there’s a clear best option tonight, Jacob deGrom ($11,000).
Jake struggled at times earlier in the season, but lately has been consistently awesome. deGrom has a higher SIERA, 3.58, than Greinke, and slightly worse WHIP, 1.18. But Jake is fanning hitters at a 28% rate, which has climbed over the last two months, and his walk rate is falling, now 7.8%. So, while Greinke is beginning to struggle, deGrom seems to be finding his grove.
With Zack $1.1K cheaper than Jake, it’s going to be tempting to take Greinke over deGrom, which I expect many MLB FanDuel players to do. But the reason deGrom is so expensive tonight, is the match-up. The Mets are visiting the Padres in San Diego, one of the worst hitting parks in the league. Against RHP’s at home, the Padres have the tenth worst wRC+, 95, and a high 23.7% strikeout rate. It’s worth paying up for deGrom tonight, even with the price-tag.
MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fades
If you’re thinking of fading deGrom tonight, I wouldn’t immediately jump to Greinke. There are plenty of other great options, including James Paxton ($9,200) and Brad Peacock ($8,900).
Paxton had a couple of hiccups coming from the DL in early June, but after a mid-June start against the Tigers, James has been absolutely on fire. In five of his last six starts, Paxton has at least seven strikeouts, or better, and between 31 and 52 MLB FanDuel points over his last six games.
James has the third best SIERA among all starting pitchers, 3.66, a low 1.14 WHIP, is only giving up 0.48 home runs per nine innings, and has a high 27.8% strikeout rate. Paxton was my top pitching option against the Astros, in Houston, on July 19th.
At the time, many other experts recommended fading him because of the Astros lineup. But when you have a hot pitcher, top-of-the-line, pitcher like Paxton, the lineup is irrelevant. So don’t be scared off by the Red Sox tonight, James is still one of your best options.
I prefer Paxton as the top fade, but we can’t ignore Peacock. Over the last six starts, Brad is averaging 43.2 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, no game scoring less than 39 points. While Peacock has one of the highest walk rates on the mound tonight, 13.2%, he also has the highest strikeout rate, 32.4%, and is giving up a rock-bottom 0.13 home runs per nine innings.
Tonight, Peacock has a favorable match-up against the Phillies. Teams have performed well, offensively, in Citizens Bank park this season, but the Phillies have struggled, with numbers resembling the Padres at home. Peacock is definitely another strong deGrom fade option, and for a very reasonable $8.9K price.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Plays
I’ll admit, I’ve slept on the rising Kevin Gausman ($7,400) for the last couple of weeks. Gasuman has performed poorly over the last two years, and I’ve targeted his high 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
However, Kevin’s home run rate has declined lately, and while he has a dreadful 6.11 ERA, his SIERA is a respectable 4.76. While Gausman has a high 1.75 WHIP, he’s walking batters below a 10% rate, a mark I typically like to avoid when playing a pitcher. And while Gausman has a 19.6% strikeout rate, that rate is actually above 30% for the month of July.
Kevin’s MLB FanDuel point average for the year is only 21, but over the last six starts, Gausman has 34+ points in four games. Kevin is consistently fanning hitters at a high rate in July, even though he’s had some ERA issues.
Tonight, Gausman faces the Rays in Tampa. When the Rays visited Baltimore earlier this month, Kevin fanned nine hitters, only let four batters on the base-path, took the win and landed the QS while piling up 58 MLB FanDuel points. Like all value picks, there’s clear risk here, but the upside on a $7.4K salary against the Rays is enormous and makes Gausman the best value pick of the night.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Cleveland Indians vs. Tim Adleman
Adleman had some solid outings here and there this season. But like most of the Reds starting pitchers, Tim has consistently performed poorly on the mound this year. Adleman’s SIERA is decent, 4.55, and he has a respectable 1.37 WHIP, but he’s giving up 2.1 home runs per nine innings.
The Indians welcome Adleman and the Reds into Cleveland tonight, and this is not the type of lineup Adleman could pull out the strong outing against. The Indians have the eight best wRC+, 112, against RHP’s at home. The Tribe has a strong .813 OPS and .467 slugging percentage, suggesting they’ll have a few multi-run home runs tonight against a fly-ball hitter. Stack as many as you can afford.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Matt Cain
While the Pirates mostly stay cheap, I’m going to continue to target their hot bats, especially against pitchers like Cain. Matt has a 5.50 SIERA heading to the mound tonight, the worst of all consistent starters tonight. Cain is only walking 9.1% of his batters, but can only fan 13.2% of the bats he faces.
Cain’s home run rate is a respectable 1.3 per nine innings, but against the Pirates hot bats, that number should climb. And with a terrible 1.67 WHIP, we know the Pirates should wear out the base-path in San Franscico tonight. This is an affordable stack with deGrom as your top pitcher.
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!