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Nylon Calculus: Navigating the NBA’s changing landscape

By Abhijit Brahme

HOUSTON, TX - MAY 07: Mike D'Antoni of the Houston Rockets looks against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Three of the NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals at Toyota Center on May 7, 2017 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - MAY 07: Mike D'Antoni of the Houston Rockets looks against the San Antonio Spurs during Game Three of the NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals at Toyota Center on May 7, 2017 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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If we compare the evolution of the NBA to the development of life on planet Earth, the institution of the 3-point arc is equivalent to the Cambrian explosion. It was then that individual and team style began to truly diversify.

Like the years following the Cambrian Period, the post 3-point NBA has experienced its fair share of natural selection. We have seen new offensive styles develop and die out, only to be replaced by fitter, more robust versions. As a result, we’ve seen different players come and go, each bringing something new to the game.

Using historical data dating back to the 1996-97 season, I’ve used K-Means clustering to understand exactly how the NBA’s player composition has changed. By grouping NBA players using their statistical similarities, I’ve identified 10 separate player types. An overview of these archetypes are listed below.

Read More: Spacing Rating and why the Timberwolves may struggle

Player Types

  1. Defensive Guards
    • Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Andrew Iguodala in 2017, etc.
  2. Mostly 3, Little “D”
    • Ryan Anderson, Kyle Korver, etc.
  3. All-Around Big Men
    • Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, Al Horford, etc.
  4. Defensively Capable, Pick-and-Roll Big Men
    • Tyson Chandler, Steven Adams, Clint Capela, etc.
  5. Offensively Skewed Playmakers (or Defensively Liable if you are pessimistic)
    • DeMar Derozan, Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony, etc.
  6. Run of the Mill Bigs
    • Derrick Favors, Al Jefferson, etc.
  7. Average Wings
    • Lance Stephenson, Brandon Ingram, Corey Brewer, etc.
  8. Average Point Guards
    • Ish Smith, Rajon Rondo in 2017, Jose Calderon, etc.
  9. Rough Riders (courtesy of Stephen. A Smith)
    • Kendrick Perkins, Anderson Varejao, Udonis Haslem, etc.
  10. Gods
    • LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, etc.

By looking at the composition of the league in terms of these players, we can see how the league has changed over the years:

Takeaway No. 1: 3-Point Explosion

The obvious analysis here is that there is an exponential rise in the number of players that specialize in the 3 ball. In 1997, these players only made up about 13 percent of the league. Now, they hold the majority and make up nearly 29 percent of the NBA population.

Takeaway No. 2: Down With the Bigs

Although the percentage of all-around bigs and defensive/pick-and-roll specialists has remained the same, we see that average big men who don’t necessarily possess offensive talent have been on the decline. In fact, the Rough Riders group started off making up roughly 14 percent of the league in 1997. Today, they stand at about 3 percent. As teams now move to a 4-out offense, “old-school” bigs are being displaced by either shooters or offensively capable big men.

When did this transition occur?

By overlaying the graphs, we can see that the spike in the 3-point shooters occurs around the same time we see a dip in the percentage of traditional bigs.

The 2005-06 season was a special one for the NBA. It was here that we began to see a divergence. In order to wrap my head around the context of that year, I had to do a little digging on the interwebs. After searching for an exhausting two seconds, I discovered it was the year that Steve Nash won his second MVP in a row, playing with the notorious “7 Seconds or Less” offense implemented by none other than Mike D’Antoni. The subsequent year, the Warriors hired Don Nelson and “Run TMC” was reborn. That Warriors team upset the No. 1 seed Mavericks before falling to the Jazz.

Maybe it was at this time the league took notice of the potential success that came with an up-tempo, 3-point-reliant offensive style and began to adapt. To see if this same revolution influenced play-style, I performed the same type of clustering analysis with NBA teams’ scoring statistics dating back to 1997.

Team Types

  1. Slow and Steady
    • 1997 Bulls, 2001 Lakers, 2001 Spurs, etc.
    • These teams moved the ball well, got to the free-throw line, but were half-court teams.
  2. Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency
    • 2017 Warriors, 2017 Spurs, etc.
    • These teams scored in transition, off turnovers, highly preferred the 3 ball over mid-range and scored well in the paint.
  3. ISO Ball
    • 2017 Pacers, 2017 Pistons, 2016 Thunder, etc.
    • These teams scored more unassisted 2-point field goals than assisted in a half-court setting.
  4. 2 Good 2 Be True
    • 2016 Bucks, Grizzlies from literally 2009-15, etc.
    • These teams play team ball well, but use it to get good 2-point looks.
  5. Pace and Space
    • 2017 Celtics, 2017 Hawks, 2017 Rockets, 2017 Cavs, etc.
    • These teams use pick-and-rolls to generate favorable situations and shoot quite a bit of 3s.
  6. Paint Proficiency
    • 1999 Lakers, 1997 Spurs, etc.
    • These teams had some bigs to generate offense in the paint.
  7.  Mid-Range Mania
    • 1998 Magic, 1997 Bulls, 2005 Lakers, etc.
    • These teams took quite a bit of 2s from the game’s least efficient spots.

By taking a look at the NBA’s play style composition, we can see how the league has evolved:

Takeaway No. 1: Pace and Space has Arrived

While efficient offenses have been on the rise (orange), the growth of the “Pace and Space” style has increased at an alarming rate. Going from 2 percent to roughly 60 percent in a five year span is pretty wild.

Takeaway No. 2: Big Men Centered Offenses Died a Quick Death

While “Pace and Space” grew, these paint oriented offenses were already on the way out. Half-court centered offenses (dark blue) and mid-range focused teams had their run in the early 2000s, but were also eventually naturally selected against.

Takeaway No. 3: ISO Ball is the Cockroach of the NBA

It seems like ISO Ball can withstand any storm, much like how a cockroach never seems to die. It scuttles away after taking a blow, heals and comes back with a slight vengeance. These teams will always be around due to player imbalance among the league.

The League Plays Catch-Up

Here, I’ve included both “Efficient x3” (orange) and “Pace and Space” offenses (green) because of their similarity. I only include the “Slow and Steady” style (blue) to avoid cluttering the graph. The two other offenses which decline at about the same time are “Mid-Range Mania” and “2 Good 2 Be True”.

From previous discussion, we know that the league began to diverge in terms of player composition around 2006. From the graph above, NBA offenses did not began to actually implement these players effectively until about 2009 (think Dwight Howard plus four shooters). Going forward, I’d like to explore what specifically caused this three year lag period, but for now I’d like to think it’s due to the time it takes for teams to acquire necessary players via trade, draft or development.

Next: In search of the ideal talent distribution for an NBA roster

Final Thoughts

While it’s common knowledge that D’Antoni, Nelson and Pop were ahead of their times, it’s gratifying to see it quantified and it’s interesting to see how the rest of the NBA followed suit. Going forward, I would like to see if “Pace and Space” has staying power or if it eventually gets replaced. With the way the league is trending, however, I’d bet on seeing more and more teams like the current Spurs, Rockets, Warriors and Celtics.

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