Early DraftKings Picks August 2: Can We Trust J.A. Happ?

ARLINGTON, TX – JULY 31: Joey Gallo #13 of the Texas Rangers hits a double in the third inning against the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington on July 31, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Rick Yeatts/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For August 2

There are only three games today in the early DraftKings tournament. We don’t have an ace going, but we do have one that pitched like an ace early in the season, and another that was a borderline ace last year. Can we use either one of them? Let’s check some stats!

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The money line last night was at 117.85. My Phillies stack lineup just missed. The other was destroyed by Jon Lester for what he and his mates did to Patrick Corbin. Even Joey Gallo couldn’t save that lineup!

The winning lineup was at 218.25. Amazingly, that was the only lineup above 200! He rode solid pitching from Jimmy Nelson and Kenta Maeda with huge days from Evan Longoria and Howie Kendrick to victory.

These picks are based mostly on statistical analysis . If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup

TORONTO, ON – JULY 28: J.A. Happ #33 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the fifth inning during MLB game action against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Rogers Centre on July 28, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

P: Ervin Santana ($10,200): Santana has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over his last ten games after dominating earlier this year. We all knew it was coming. However, his ERA is still 2.59 on the road, and Petco Park is a pitcher’s haven. He also doesn’t have to contend with a DH. Santana is arguably the strongest play of the day. If nothing else, he is the safest.

P: J.A. Happ ($7,800): Happ was miserable in July, but the White Sox are nowhere near the offense that they were even last week. The lineup last week had performed well against lefties this year, but with Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera gone on to contenders, what we have left is Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson. That’s it. I don’t expect a shutout from Happ, but the White Sox have an elevated strikeout rate as well. I expect a quality start from Happ despite his 5.00 ERA in July. It’s a new month, after all!

C: Austin Hedges ($3,000): Hedges got the night off last night, so he should be in there this afternoon. I’m not a big fan of any of the catchers out there today. If Russell Martin was playing, I would use him. Hedges seems like the next best thing.

1B: Victor Martinez ($2,800): Martinez is 2-7 with a walk, a homer, and five RBI in his career against Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has struggled more so at home than on the road. First base may seem an interesting position to punt, but it’s hardly a punt play with a history like this!

2B: Brian Dozier ($4,300): Luis Perdomo has never faced the Twins, but his numbers are average across the board. The Twins offense as a whole is not hitting particularly well right now, but if they bust out of it today, you can bet Dozier will be involved.

3B: Todd Frazier ($4,000): Frazier hasn’t taken off as a member of the Yankees as many had hoped he would. However, his .219 average since joining the team has actually raised his season average. He is 5-18(.278) with three walks, a double, two homers, three runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is the weakest link among the six pitchers, so the Yankees will be a widely used stack. Frazier’s history should have him as part of it.

SS: Didi Gregorius ($4,200): Gregorius is 3-10 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Zimmerman. He is finding his power stroke lately, with five of his 17 homers coming in the past ten games. His chances of leaving the yard against Zimmerman are well above average.

OF: Aaron Judge ($5,500): Much has been made of his “slump”, but Judge still has four homers in the last ten games. He is always a threat to leave the yard. Since I have the money, I am paying up for him against the worst pitcher of the afternoon.

OF: Clint Frazier ($4,800): Frazier is batting second in a loaded lineup against a pitcher that could give up quite a few runs today. That works for me!

OF: Kevin Pillar ($3,400): Pillar is 3-6 with a double, a run scored, and two RBI in his career against Derek Holland. All Blue Jay righties are in play here. They make a nice contrarian stack to those of you leaving the Yankees alone.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have plenty of NFL stuff to get you ready for football!