NASCAR Playoffs: ICM Connect 300 preview, predictions for New Hampshire
By Nick Tylwalk
Will New Hampshire be the scene of more dominance by the likes of Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch, or could it provide a lifeline for someone further down in the playoff standings?
It’s not quite desperation time in the NASCAR Playoffs Round of 16, but for a few drivers, winning the ISM Connect 300 in New Hampshire would definitely help dig them out of a precarious points situation.
The first playoff race provided little in the way of surprises as regular season champion Martin Truex Jr. won in pretty convincing fashion. He has the comfort of knowing he’s already into the next round, and while he can (and probably still will, given his stage-winning savvy) still rack up more points, he’s essentially playing with house money at this point.
On the far end of the spectrum lie Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman. All four drivers would be eliminated if the playoffs ended today, and Newman, in particular, is in a bit of trouble not because he’s that far back from the cut line in terms of points (just seven at the moment) but because there’s a cluster of drivers between him and safety. This quartet needs to win at New Hampshire or Dover or face sweating things out.
They’ll have to somehow figure out a way to get past Truex, who has never won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway but is fast everywhere right now, and Kyle Busch, who does know the way to Victory Lane and starts on the pole. Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth all have won at this track as well, so pulling an upset today will not be an easy task.
Next: ISM Connect 300 grid, starting lineup
Forecast
It’s going to be hot for the ISM Connect 300, with all of the challenges that usually entails. Weather Channel expects temperatures in the mid to high-80s throughout the race, along with plenty of sunshine.That usually means a more slippery track, which some drivers actually prefer.
Stage lengths
New Hampshire is one of the tracks that almost perfectly divides its races into segments of 1/4, 1/4 and 1/2.
- Stage 1 ends at Lap 75
- Stage 2 ends at Lap 150
- Stage 3 is scheduled to end at Lap 301, for a final stage length of 151 laps
Three things to watch
- Can Ryan Newman or Kasey Kahne turn back the clock? Though both men have won at this track in the past, it’s been a while. Newman’s last New Hampshire victory came in 2005, which may as well have been another lifetime. Still, if you were going to pick one of the “win or be nervous” drivers to surprise everyone, it would be smart to ride with one of these two.
- Will sunshine defeat TrackBite? New Hampshire applied PJ1 TrackBite to its racing surface for the spring race and has said it’s doing the same thing this time around. The compound applies extra grip, and the track gave it credit for supplying more side by side racing than usual earlier this year. With hot weather having the opposite effect on the track, it will be interesting to see which factor wins out.
- Do crew changes make a difference for the contenders? Kyle Busch saw his crew get swapped for the playoffs and it cost him in the first postseason race. This week’s new development is that Kasey Kahne has a new crew chief. Will any of these moves pay off? Because they haven’t so far.
Predictions
Think Kyle Busch is a man on a mission? He has to be fuming after his new crew bungled what would have been a great chance to win last week at Chicagoland, and he’s probably going to have one of the fastest two or three cars. It wouldn’t be wise to pick against him.
As for a dark horse pick, we’ll ride with Clint Bowyer, who finished seventh in the spring New Hampshire race. Yes, it would be unfortunately ironic for Bowyer to break through with his first win for Stewart-Haas Racing after the playoffs started and he missed the field, but one would expect he’d still find the taste of victory just as sweet.