Orioles: Is Trey Mancini’s breakout for real?

Trey Mancini is one of the few bright spots for the Orioles this season. But, is the rookie’s breakout for real, or just a mirage?

It seems as though that over the last few seasons in the MLB, rookies have dominated the spotlight. While players like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Andrew Benintendi get most headlines this season, Trey Mancini has quietly posted a great debut season for the Orioles.

Trey Mancini did not take long to make a statement in his major league career, homering in his second career at-bat versus the Red Sox in 2016. When the Orioles resigned Mark Trumbo at the end of last season, and with Chris Davis still at first, Mancini had no option but to work in the outfield this spring to earn a roster spot.

He did just that, earning a roster spot with the big league club heading into the 2017 season and eventually became a starter not too long after. He got off to a slow start in April, .216/5 HR/12 RBI/.794 OPS, but it was evident that the power was going to play at the big league level.

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Mancini would they catch fire in both May and June, notching 9 HR and 31 RBI over that span. He did not post lower than a .300 AVG either and notched 10 doubles as well. He was splitting gaps with ease while continuing to display his power.

Over the last three months of the season, Mancini has slowed some in the AVG department, but what should encourage fantasy owners is that his XBH and run-producing ability are not diminishing.

He had a .265/3 HR/13 RBI line in July, .269/6 HR/15 RBI in Aug., and so far in Sep., a .300/1 HR/7 RBI/ 6 2B line over 24 games. Fantasy owners know that AVG is the least predictable stat in the game, but Mancini is showing continual production in his counting stats production to encourage people to believe in his breakout.

As he now sits with a seasonal line of, .292./24 HR/78 RBI/26 2B/.829 OPS, he will be targeted as a mid-round value next season. Outside of his surface stats, there are more encouraging areas in his batted ball data as well.

For one, his .347 BABIP is not terribly high, so his success is by no means luck driven. He holds healthy 20% LD and 30% FB rates, while also squaring the ball up to 46% Med and 34% Hard contact rates. With his power and XBH numbers this season, it should not be a surprise to see this level of solid contact.

He also holds no obvious split weakness versus LHP or RHP, nor while being home or away. Versus righties this season he holds a, .293/19 HR/61 RBI line. Against lefties, .292/5 HR/17 RBI. A pretty impressive balance for a rookie that was supposedly only going to be able to handle lefties.

While those splits further help build his case, his home and away splits are just the icing on the cake. Camden Yards is a shoebox. It continually ranks as one of the best hitters ballparks in the league, thus having the ability to pad players stats that get to call it home.

Mancini did not care where he was this season, as he holds a .281/11 HR/38 RBI line on the road, and a .304/13 HR/40 RBI line at home. It is hard to argue against his consistency this season, and this further cements his breakout as legitimate.

It would be remiss not to mention some of the red flags as well. The most obvious being his 23% K rate and dismal 5% BB rate. Mancini does take his hacks, and this will more than likely make him more of a .265-.275 hitter, rather than a guy that will flirt with a .300 AVG. He does make contact 74% of the time, but he will simply have to cut down on his 36% Chase rate.

Another area of his game that he could improve is with his GB rate. He currently holds a 51% GB rate, which for a guy that has the XBH ability that he does, it is way too high of a number. If he can elevate the ball more in 2018, it is scary to think of what he could do power wise at Camden.

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Trey Mancini’s season is, unfortunately, getting lost in the fold amongst the standout rookies this season. Yet, the talent is there, and the stats support that he will be here to stay and produce. The Orioles have yet another young offensive weapon at their disposal heading into 2018.