2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Top 10 small forwards
Small forward used to be a position of strength in fantasy basketball, but offseason moves and old age have whittled away some of that depth.
As many as three small forwards will likely come off draft boards in the first round, but you’ll find few players at the position worth selecting in the second or third rounds. Instead, if you miss out on one of the top options, it’s better to target a small forward in Rounds 4 through 6, where you’ll be drowning in players with a variety of strengths and weaknesses.
Which small forwards should you be targeting toward the top of your fantasy drafts, and where should you be taking them? Assuming a nine-category head-to-head format, here’s how to break down the cream of the crop at the 3.
1. Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Anyone concerned about how Kevin Durant’s move to the Golden State Warriors last summer would affect his fantasy value had those fears quickly quelled. While his scoring output dipped slightly, he more than made up for it by setting new career highs in field-goal percentage (53.7), rebounds (8.3) and blocks (1.6), which helped him finish as the top-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. Seemingly every Western Conference contender added another impact wing player this offseason — from Jimmy Butler in Minnesota to Paul George in Oklahoma City — so the Warriors may need KD to play more than the career-low 33.4 minutes per game he averaged last season. As a result, he’s a no-brainer top-three pick regardless of format, and he could go as high as No. 1 overall.
2. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard doesn’t stuff the stat sheet like LeBron James or Russell Westbrook, but he finished higher than both of them in terms of per-game fantasy value in nine-category leagues last season. In Year 1 of San Antonio’s post-Tim Duncan era, Leonard smashed his career highs in points (25.5), 3-pointers (2.0), assists (3.5) and minutes (33.4) while chipping in 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks, too. Though he finished as the fourth-ranked player in nine-category formats and the seventh-ranked player in eight-cat, he’s coming off the board seventh in average ESPN leagues and eighth in Yahoo. With Tony Parker sidelined to start the year, Leonard may absorb even more ball-handling responsibility, which makes him a rock-solid mid-first-rounder.
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
If this is LeBron James’ last season in Cleveland, expect him to go out with a bang. He’s assuredly seething about Kyrie Irving’s trade request, and newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas isn’t expected to return until January at the earliest. Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade will help shoulder some of the scoring burden in the meantime, but the Cavaliers are still the King James show. Considering he set new career highs in rebounds (8.6) and assists (8.7) last season while pouring in 26.4 points on 54.8 percent shooting, 1.7 triples, 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks, whoever lands him in the late first round will get a steal. Rotisserie owners need to be mindful of his subpar free-throw percentage, though, as he set a new career-low mark in that category last year (67.4 percent).
4. Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder
After James comes off the board, there’s a full-round gap between him and the next-best small forward option, Paul George. (In the meantime, load up on point guards and bigs.) George finished as a top-15 option in 2016-17, but he didn’t have to split touches with Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony in Indiana. His scoring output is likely to dip slightly in Oklahoma City, but like Durant with Golden State, George could offset that loss with increased shooting efficiency and defensive counting stats. He’s still worth a look in the late second or early third round, but George isn’t a risk-free pick like Durant, Leonard or James.
5. Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics
There’s another full-round drop-off from George to Gordon Hayward, but small forwards will start flying off the board in Rounds 4 through 6. Hayward, who averaged a career-high 21.9 points on 47.1 percent shooting, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.0 triples and 1.0 steals in 34.5 minutes per game during his final season with the Utah Jazz, is the best of the bunch. Figuring out the division of touches between he, Kyrie Irving and Al Horford will be a work in progress to start the season, but Horford willingly took a backseat to Isaiah Thomas last year and should happily oblige again. As such, Hayward — who finished as the 33rd-ranked player on a per-game bais in nine-category leagues last season — should once again make for a strong mid-fourth-round target.
6. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Khris Middleton largely flew under the radar last season, as he missed the first three-and-a-half months due a hamstring injury he suffered during the preseason. In 2015-16, though, he finished as the 28th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues after pouring in 18.2 points on 44.4 percent shooting, 4.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.8 triples and 1.7 steals in 36.1 minutes. With Jabari Parker likely to miss much of the 2017-18 campaign as he recovers from his torn ACL, Middleton should emerge as the primary sidekick to Giannis Antetokounmpo on both ends of the court. He could be a nightly 20-5-4 threat who chips in upward of two 3-pointers and two steals, making him a strong late fourth- or early fifth-round pick.
7. Otto Porter Jr., Washington Wizards
Otto Porter Jr. was one of the biggest draft-day steals last season. The mid-round pick finished as the 22nd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues and 31st in eight-cat, as he set new career highs in points (13.4), field-goal percentage (51.6), rebounds (6.4), 3-pointers (1.9), steals (1.5) and blocks (0.5) while averaging a paltry 0.6 turnovers per game. With Markieff Morris likely to miss the first month of this upcoming season, head coach Scott Brooks plans on sprinkling Porter in at the 4, according to Chase Hughes of CSN Mid-Atlantic, where he’ll dominate as a mismatch nightmare. Porter doesn’t put up huge scoring figures, but his contributions in steals and 3-pointers make him a surefire fifth-round pick regardless.
8. Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers
Unlike in years past, Robert Covington gets to play alongside actual NBA-caliber ball-handlers this season. That should help him bump his shooting efficiency north of 40 percent for the first time in his Philadelphia tenure. Considering Covington finished as the 36th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues last season despite shooting just 39.9 percent overall, he’s a bona fide lock to finish with top-50 value again, even if Markelle Fultz, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons cut into his touches. Between his 3-point shooting and his ball-hawking — he averaged 2.0 triples and a career-high 1.9 steals last season — Covington should come off draft boards by the fifth round at latest.
9. Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets
Trevor Ariza was in danger of losing much of his fantasy appeal had the Houston Rockets pulled off their long-expected acquisition of Carmelo Anthony. Now that ‘Melo is in OKC, however, Ariza will retain his typical mid-round appeal. The 32-year-old finished as the 39th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues last season and was 52nd in eight-cat formats, as he, like Covington, is an elite source of 3-pointers (2.2) and steals (2.2). With Chris Paul now joining James Harden in Houston, Ariza should have an attention-drawing, gravity-sucking ball-handler alongside him at all times, which could lead to a career-high number of 3-pointers. Target Ariza aggressively toward the end of the fifth or beginning of the sixth round.
10. Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder
Carmelo Anthony’s trade to the Thunder will be the fantasy version of a “chicken or the egg” quandary. Did Anthony hemorrhage fantasy value during his final few seasons with the Knicks because he doesn’t do much more than score, rebound and hit 3-pointers, or did his effort wane because he knew the Knicks had no chance of competing for a championship? In Oklahoma City, Anthony may not top 20 points per game alongside Westbrook and George, but having two star teammates should enable him to recommit to other facets of the game. I’m banking on that extra motivation leading to a bounce-back season for the 10-time All-Star, making him worthy of an early sixth-round selection.
Next: Every NBA team's greatest shooter of all time
Honorable mentions
- Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Danilo Gallinari, Los Angeles Clippers
- Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks
- Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets
- Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers
Other positional rankings
All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.