Yankees Luis Severino: Overhyped or undervalued for 2018?

Yankees pitcher Luis Severino ended the season as a top-10 starting pitcher. Is this what we should expect in 2018 or was this an anomaly?

The New York Yankees are back in the playoffs. The offense easily carried this team but they were supported by some good pitching. Most notably was the surprising performance by Luis Severino. He was the team’s best pitcher this season. Is this something we should expect in 2018?

Severino made 33 combined appearances between 2015 and 2016. He posted two completely different stat lines in those seasons. Fantasy owners had no idea what they would be getting if they drafted Severino.

He went undrafted in ESPN leagues, 260.0 ADP. At the end of the season, Severino ranks as the No. 6 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. He ranks behind Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg for the season. It’s been a spectacular season for Severino and for the back-and-forth between the majors and minors, he’s shown us what he can do.

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In 193.1 innings, Severino posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 14-6 record. He also had a 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 3.07 FIP. He displayed great ball control and ability to not allow a lot of baserunners. Severino had 230 strikeouts and just 51 walks.His FIP also told us that Severino wasn’t giving up many home runs, and he wasn’t. He had a 00 HR/9, only 21 allowed all season.

His FIP also told us that Severino wasn’t giving up many home runs, and he wasn’t. He had a 1.0 HR/9, only 21 allowed all season.

Severino had a ridiculous 50.6 ground ball rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 18.8 line drive rate. His groundball rate is sixth and fly ball rate is 12th among all qualified pitchers according to Fangraphs.

Despite making 16 starts at Yankee Stadium, he still posted good enough numbers. There was obviously a discrepancy between his home and road starts, he wasn’t unusable at home. Severino had a 3.71 ERA and 1.041 WHIP at home, 2.24 ERA and 1.038 WHIP on the road.

Even though the Yankees acquired Sonny Gray, Severino was clearly the best pitcher on this team. He led the team in wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and a few more stats. I actually think he can repeat this performance next season. The only thing that could halt his rise to elite status would be surgery (no such thing as a jinx).

While Severino finished the season as a top-10 pitcher, he will still be undervalued in 2018 drafts. There were a lot of underperforming pitchers that will bounce back and take their rightful spot in the ranks. Severino, along with others, will move down and could become a steal in drafts.

Next: What is Kyle Schwarber's 2018 value?

ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft ranks Severino as the No. 10 pitcher and No. 39 player overall. That may be too early for me after just one year of performance. Though, do you want to miss out on what could be a Cy Young award-winning season next year? I didn’t think so.

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