Tottenham and Manchester United both won 4-0 but the similarities didn’t end there, Huddersfield are struggling and how did Manchester City keep Chelsea at bay?
On Tuesday night, Tottenham won by three goals away from home in the Champions League. The following night, Manchester United repeated the trick. The two teams had very similar outings in the Premier League this weekend, too.
The obvious similarity is clearly the result, as both teams won 4-0. In statistical terms, though, there was an almost unsettling level of coincidence.
For starters, both teams had 59 percent of possession. That figure is within one percent of Tottenham’s season average, and while about four percent up for United, you would expect to see an increase when they’re facing a side managed by Roy Hodgson. The former England manager has no issue with playing a low block and letting the opposition have the ball.
Possession can be had all over the pitch, yet Spurs and United completed a near identical number of final third passes; 53 for Pochettino’s side, and 55 for Mourinho’s. These figures are slightly unusual, as Spurs averaged 92 in their first three away matches, and United 139 in their three at Old Trafford.
Not that it matters when a team is this efficient. In the 830 Premier League matches since August 2015, there have only been six occasions where an away side generated more shots than Tottenham did on Saturday from fewer final third passes. By coincidence, the top match on this front was also a 4-0 away win for Spurs, when they won at Stoke in 2015-16.
In the same period, there have only been three games where a home side completed fewer final third passes but generated more shots than United did against Palace.
Spurs and the Red Devils each limited their opponents to six shots this weekend. Both also had a shots on target count of seven to one in their favor. Numerically speaking, the two performances could hardly have been more similar.
Kane sets records while Huddersfield are in trouble
When Harry Kane broke his duck for the season at Everton, this column noted how he had been due a goal. The England international certainly made up for a dry August in September.
But it’s interesting to consider how similar the two months were on an underlying basis for Kane. In August he had 20 shots, which were worth a total of 2.43 expected goals. As we know, he failed to find the back of the net.
September saw Kane have slightly more shots (24) for a virtually identical total expected goals value (2.40). The average quality of his opportunities dropped a little, but he scored six goals. When you’re hot, you’re hot. Just ask Liverpool (or more accurately, their opponents).
Kane’s latest victims were Huddersfield . They may feel happy in 11th place in the table, but as This Week in Stats suggested in week two, they still can’t be confident of staying up.
Their problem is going to be scoring goals. Their defense has been impressive so far; using FiveThirtyEight’s expected goal figures, they have the fifth best defensive record in the division.
But they also have the second weakest attack so far, and their fixtures haven’t been too demanding. They’ve played three of the bottom six, and the Tottenham match was their first against one of the big six.
Their stats read very similarly to Middlesbrough’s last year. Keeping it tight at the back makes sense, but if it comes at the expense of your attack then you’ll still be in trouble.
The Terriers have generated at least one expected goal in just one of their seven matches this season. Huddersfield’s defense will need to be a lot tighter than it was on Saturday with attacking form like that.
Next: How will Chelsea cope without Morata?
Manchester City ran the show at Stamford Bridge
Soccer is an inherently low scoring sport. Narratives are usually written based on the scoreline. Chelsea may have only lost 1-0 against Manchester City, but on the underlying numbers the two teams were a fair way apart.
The most startling figure is Chelsea’s shot total of four. This was their fewest in almost three years, and interestingly it was City who were responsible on that occasion. The Blues had just three goal attempts in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in January 2015.
Two of Chelsea’s shots on Saturday were at least clear-cut chances, which wouldn’t have been part of City’s plan. Had Alvaro Morata converted his golden opportunity in the second minute, the result would surely have been quite different.
But City were largely able to keep Chelsea at bay by keeping the ball. The home side had just 38 percent of possession, their lowest total in a home league game since April 2015.
City’s back four all had between 94 and 101 touches, and worked well as a unit to catch Chelsea offside eight times. For context, even the most offside-prone of teams only average around three per game.
At the start of the match, Kevin De Bruyne had attempted the most shots for either side without scoring in the league this season. Much like Kane in August, a goal was around the corner for the Belgian. When it came, it proved the difference in this match. The back end of the team deserve a lot of praise for limiting Chelsea to very few chances, though.