This Week in Stats: Were Chelsea lucky to win at Wembley?

Chelsea won the big match of week two, and the Premier League has some unexpected teams at the top end. What can the underlying stats tell us?

Week two in the Premier League sees the table begin to stretch out a little. Almost half of the teams in the division have either maximum or no points. There’s no major surprises at the bottom, so let’s look at some of the unexpected teams at the top. Do they deserve to be there?

Huddersfield should heed a lesson from recent history

The Terriers won the battle of the promoted teams this weekend. They hosted Newcastle on Sunday and came away with a 1-0 win. After their 3-0 win at Selhurst Park last week, Huddersfield are making the transition to the Premier League look simple.

They shouldn’t assume they will stay up easily in their first top flight season since 1971-72 just yet. Huddersfield were comfortably out-shot by a Newcastle side who will probably struggle this season. The visitors had nine shots in the box while the Terriers only had three. The only top quality chance defined as clear-cut by Opta fell to the Magpies too.

You might wonder why Huddersfield would care after bagging two wins out of two so far. Results are all that truly matter in the battle to stay in the Premier League, after all. But as the expected goals figures from FiveThirtyEight show, they were lucky to win both matches, and it’s unlikely their excellent start will be maintained.

David Wagner doesn’t have to look back too far for a cautionary tale either. Hull won their first two matches last season but were still relegated. Leicester had four clear-cut chances and allowed none in the opening game of the season, but still lost to the Tigers.

While an individual match can still be won despite stats like those, by the end of the season the Tigers had conceded the most goals in the division. Huddersfield fans should not be getting carried away just yet.

West Brom won their second match in a row

How long do you think a game of soccer lasts? I mean really lasts? We’d like to think the extortionate ticket prices in the Premier League would ensure we get 90 minutes of entertainment. That is sadly not the case.

You’re actually lucky if the ball is in play for over an hour. There’s always a large variation in how much time the ball spends in play, too. Here are the figures for Saturday’s matches.

The last line of the tweet is all important. As fans, of course we don’t want just 47 minutes of play. But for West Brom’s manager Tony Pulis, it is his whole reason for being. After all, if the ball isn’t in play then you can’t concede. Never mind that you can’t score either, you’ll always earn at least one point by keeping a clean sheet. For Pulis, especially away from home, one point is always a good result.

If you’re really lucky, you might pinch a goal and win the game. That’s exactly what happened at Turf Moor on Saturday, as West Brom won for the second week running. It really was an exercise in smash-and-grab victories, too.

The Baggies completed just 15 final third passes against Burnley; fewer than one per minute they had the ball. No away team won in the Premier League in 2016-17 by completing fewer than 32 final third passes. One of the 15 passes did play in Hal Robson-Kanu, though, and he went past James Tarkowski with ease to score the only goal of the game. Robson-Kanu’s effort was also the only shot on target of the match for either side; peak Pulis.

With the ball not in play much, Burnley only had three shots in the box in the last 20 minutes of the match following the goal. Yes, Jonathan Walters should’ve scored his clear-cut chance in injury-time to tie the match. Pulis banks on such chances going begging more often than not though, and statistically they do. The man plays the percentages to perfection; I wonder if he gambles?

Were Chelsea fortunate to beat Spurs?

After a disastrous home defeat to Burnley in week one, Chelsea bounced back by beating Spurs 2-1 at Wembley. Tottenham’s record at the national stadium is terrible; prior to the season beginning they had only won two of their previous 10 matches there. Will Spurs’ struggles continue at their temporary home throughout 2017-18?

Based on this match, it’s hard to say. Looking at the numbers you can make a case for Chelsea being either lucky or unlucky.

On the one hand, both FiveThirtyEight and InfoGol had the expected goals difference between the teams as no more than 0.1 in Chelsea’s favor. Spurs also had 18 shots while the visiting Blues only had nine. However, this means on average Chelsea had the better chances. It has been proven in the past that a team is more likely to win with fewer great opportunities rather than lots of low quality ones.

The Blues’ goals were shots that InfoGol rated as only having a seven and five percent chance of being scored. They were also Chelsea’s only efforts on target in the match. Yet Alvaro Morata should have buried his free header in the opening five minutes. The Spaniard’s effort was the only clear-cut chance of the game.

Next: Premier League season preview

Spurs’ closest shot from the center of the box was also the Michy Batshuayi header which went past his own goalkeeper. For all the dissarray at the back displayed by the Blues last weekend, they did have the best underlying defensive record in the division last season. As they had a lead to protect, it shouldn’t be a surprise they were largely able to keep Spurs out.

If Antonio Conte’s side were in any way lucky to score two, then Tottenham were fortunate to get one. Chelsea deserved to beat Spurs, and they will go into next week’s match with Everton full of confidence.