NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 5 Top Picks and Plays

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NFL DFS Breakdown Week 5: Top Picks and Plays

Were back for week five, which will feature 12 games on Sunday, as this will be the first bye week of the year. With fewer games to break down, hopefully we’ll be able to narrow our research and find areas to take advantage of. I’ll be looking to highlight, underpriced values, exploitable matchups, changes in workload, and my hot takes.

NFL DFS Breakdown: Key Skill Position Injuries:

Derek Carr – Beneficiaries: Marshawn Lynch?

Marcus Mariota

Marquise Goodwin – Beneficiaries: Aldrick Robinson, Trent Taylor

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 10/5): New England – 29.5, Dallas – 27.25, Pittsburgh – 26, Philadelphia – 25.75, Tampa Bay – 25, Green Bay 24.75

NFL DFS Underpriced Value Plays:

GLENDALE, AZ – OCTOBER 01: Quarterback Brian Hoyer

Brian Hoyer – SF (QB) – DK $4700

The San Francisco 49’ers and Brian Hoyer will head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts, in a game in which the 49’ers are projected to score 21.5 points. The total for this game opened at 43, but has risen a full point and a half, to 44.5. Hoyer is extremely underpriced on DraftKings relative to FanDuel and will get a crack at the 26th most efficient defense, per Football Outsiders. The Colts have given up an average of 34 points per game, and it wont take much for Hoyer to reach value.

Zach Ertz – PHI (TE) – FD $6600

While Zach Ertz saw his target takes a slight dip last week, he’s still one of the safest tight end plays on the slate and extremely cheap on FanDuel. I’d expect Patrick Peterson to shadow Alshon Jeffery, and thus funneling even more targets towards the middle of the field. Arizona has historically been good against opposing tight ends, but the volume should be there for Ertz.

Top Running Backs (Ezekiel Elliot, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell) – FD

FanDuel continues to price down elite running backs, essentially making them a plug and play in cash games. Elliot, and Bell will be the highest owned, given their matchups, but all three should be considered on FanDuel, as they are much more expensive on DraftKings.

NFL DFS Exploitable Matchups:

CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 24: Le’Veon Bell

Le’Veon Bell vs. JAC Run Defense

After finally getting the running game going, Pittsburgh will welcome in the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league worst defense in yards per carry (5.8). Much has been talked about how stellar their pass defense has been, but Jacksonville has been bludgeon on the ground in the first four games. Only allowing a 64.3 opposing passer rating, and having the most efficient pass defense has led opposing teams to exploit a vulnerable run defense. I would expect Bell to carry his success over into this coming week.

Arizona Wide Receivers vs. Eagles Secondary

Shocker, the Eagles secondary is still awful. Last week, they allowed over 347 passing yards, and allowed opposing wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams, to both record over 100 yards receiving. Arizona, who lacks any semblance of a running game, will be leaning on the arm of Carson Palmer this week, as they are 6.5 point underdogs.

Evan Engram vs. San Diego

It’s not often that rookie tight ends become popular DFS plays, but Evan Engram has emerged as one of the main focal points of the New York Giants offense. In switching to a, “get the ball out quick” style offense, Eli has leaned more on his tight end. Engram has been more and more involved in each successive start, recording a career high 11 targets last week. Engram will draw an advantageous matchup on Sunday, as the Chargers travel east to take on the G Men. San Diego is grading out as the 30th most efficient defense against opposing tight ends.

NFL DFS Changes in Workload and Hot Takes

Aldrick Robinson – SF (WR) – DK $ FD $

After just nine snaps, speedster, Marquise Goodwin, left Sunday’s game with a concussion. This is Goodwin’s fourth concussion in 14 months, which would indicate that there is a solid chance that he’ll miss this week’s game. In his absence against the Cardinals, Aldrick Robinson filled in and accounted for 73 offensive snaps. Robinson saw a season high 12 targets, but was only able to real in three catches. If Goodwin does in fact miss the game, we can assume that Robinson will be locked into moderately high usage, in what is a dream matchup against the Colt’s pass defense.

49er’s and Colts score a combined 51 points

When struggling teams matchup up, public perceptions tends to over value the offensive inefficiencies, and undervalue the defensive inefficiencies. This situation is similar to the recent Cleveland and Indianapolis game, which tallied 59 points. In the matchup this week, both teams have struggled to defend the passing attack and I think both quarterbacks are certainly competent against each others’ opposing defense.

Cincinnati wins outright and A.J. Green records over 25 DraftKings points

Buffalo’s effort to start the season cannot be questioned, they’re simply out working opposing teams. However, the regression clock is ticking, and I think it tolls for the Bills this week. Cincinnati has put on two valiant performances after making the switch at offensive coordinator, and will now have a chance to turn their season around, at home, against an over achieving Bills team.

Next: FanDuel Week 5 NFL Picks and Pivots

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