Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton put on a show for us this season. However, this was just the second time he played in 150 games. Should we expect this again?
The Miami Marlins are under new ownership, led by Derek Jeter. The team this year was still rebuilding the pitching as the offense carried this team. Well, I should say Giancarlo Stanton carried this team. Now that he was finally healthy, he put up ridiculous numbers. Though, how low should we set our expectations for 2018?
We all know what Stanton did this year. Though, if you were under a rock until the MLB Playoffs started, here’s his line. In 159 games, he hit 59 home runs, 132 RBI and .281. The first three numbers were all career highs. He missed his best average by just 0.09 points (.290 in 2012).
Stanton also had a .376 on-base percentage with a 163:85 K:BB ratio. His walks and OBP were the second-best of his career, both from 2014. All of this put him 11th overall on the Player Rater and fifth among hitters.
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Before this season, Stanton averaged 118 games played with 30 home runs, 77 RBI, 65 runs and a .266/.357/.539 line.
The numbers and potential for more were there but it was the lack of playing time that hurt his value for many seasons. He had a 39.9 ADP this year. He was the most valuable fourth-round pick in a long time.
While you can’t predict injuries (seriously, who thought Madison Bumgarner would get hurt in a dirt bike accident?), there comes a time when you kind of expect these things. Just look back at our archives.
My colleague Brad Kelly wrote about Stanton’s 2016 season ending in August. I wrote about him missing six weeks in mid-2015. A former contributor wrote on how to replace him early in 2013. Yeah, there was a trend.
But, with 159 games, should we forget about his past and expect another 59-home run season? I say no but it isn’t something that should prevent you from drafting him as high as No. 8 in next year’s drafts.
I like the Marlins offense surrounding Stanton next year, too. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Justin Bour and JT Realmuto are a good group of hitters for support. This will help Stanton drive in and score his own runs and see some good pitches from opposing pitchers.
Stanton could be drafted anywhere from the No. 3 to No. 6 outfielder drafted next season. He’s been all over the place throughout his career. From 74 to 159 games played and 22 to 59 home runs in a season.
For 2018, he is a borderline top-10 pick. I expect him to hit 45 home runs and .275 with 115 RBI and 108 runs scored. He’ll be worth the value wherever he’s drafted.