Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Anthony Rizzo or Trea Turner?
By Gavin Tramps
If you have a late first-round pick next season, both the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo and the Nationals’ Trea Turner should be available. Which one are you drafting?
One of the most compelling of the Division Series matchups pits the World Series champions, the Chicago Cubs, against the Washington Nationals. Anthony Rizzo is an RBI-machine for the Cubs, and Trea Turner is the speedy, leadoff hitter for the Nationals. Both are elite talents worthy of a first-round pick.
This season only two spots separated the ADP of Rizzo and Turner, but the gap will likely be larger next year with Rizzo confirming his status as a legitimate first-rounder, while Turner failed to live up to the overhyped expectations caused by his sensational rookie campaign.
Unless you play in a league in which Rizzo will be eligible at second base, the Cubs’ slugger will only have first base eligibility. Many other first basemen can offer Rizzo’s power. In fact, there were 26 first basemen with at least 25 home runs this season. However, few shortstops can match Turner’s speed. There was exactly one shortstop with more than 25 stolen bases this season, and that was the Nationals’ speedster.
Trea Turner (SS-WAS)
The 24-year-old had a sensational rookie campaign in 2016 with 13 home runs, 33 stolen bases and a .342 batting average in 73 games. The former first-round pick from the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft was taken in the first round in many fantasy baseball drafts this season.
His 2017 has been disrupted by two trips to the DL. Firstly, a 10-day stint in April with a strained hamstring and secondly when he missed 51 games after fracturing his wrist after being hit by a pitch.
When analyzing a player’s offensive value, wRC+ is a useful metric, with 100 wRC+ equating to league average. Last year, Turner’s 147 wRC+ was the 10th best of players with at least 300 plate appearances. This season it dropped to 105 wRC+ relegating him outside the top-120.
His regular season stat line reads as 11 home runs, 75 runs, 45 RBI, 46 stolen bases and .284 batting average over 98 games.
So was he a flop?
Maybe luck was not on his side this season. It was the first year of his career when his batting average dropped below .300, partly fueled by a BABIP 60 points lower than last season. Also, fly balls were not carrying for home runs. His 9.9% HR/FB is below league average and way down on last year’s 16.7%.
It was not all down to bad luck. Turner dragged too many balls along the ground, with a big increase in ground ball rate of 52% up from 43.1% last season, and he is not hitting the ball as hard, with his hard-hit ball rate plummeting to 26.7% from 34.8%. Also, he continues to struggle against left-handers, with an OPS more than 200 points lower than against right-handers.
But enough about real baseball, we are talking about fantasy.
The shortstop was taken with an ADP of 13. He did not provide second-round value, but perhaps he was not a fantasy flop, just unfortunate to miss time through injury.
Turner stole 43 bases in just 98 games, which is a 76 stolen base pace over a full season. Only Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton stole more bases this year, and they both played over 40 more games. Despite the fewer appearances, Turner eclipsed Gordon and Hamilton in the home run and RBI categories.
Only 14 players swiped at least 25 bags this season. Want to guess how many players hit at least 25 home runs? 74!
Stolen bases are in short supply, and Turner’s speed is legitimate.
Last year’s runner-up in for the Rookie of the Year award will only have shortstop eligibility in 2018. It obviously gives him more value than outfield-only eligibility but the loss of second base eligibility hurts.
There are many fantasy baseball articles that consider Turner a failure in 2017. He did not continue to produce at the pace he was on last season but in points leagues, he was a top-10 player in points-per-game basis. In fantasy, he was a superstar when he was on the field.
The injury was an unfortunate incident, and a broken wrist from a hit-by-pitch could happen to any hitter. There is no reason to think Turner will not play 162 games in 2018.
Returning after a broken wrist was always going to be a struggle, but Turner hit four home runs with 11 stolen bases and a slash line of .297/.371/.525 in 30 games, finishing the season as one of the hottest players. He ranked in the top-10 for the final 30 days of the season according to the ESPN player rater
Turner might not be a 20 home run hitter, or if he is, it might take a few years for the power to develop, but he is the leadoff hitter for one of the most potent lineups in the game, so 100 runs every season looks like a lock.
Anthony Rizzo (1B-CHC)
The first baseman was drafted by the Red Sox in the sixth round of the 2007 draft. He debuted with the Padres before being shipped to Chicago and the rest, as they say, is history. Rizzo is unquestionably one of the most reliable hitters of his generation.
The left-hander’s importance to the Cubs cannot be overstated. He led the team in plate appearances, home runs, RBI and inevitably hit-by-pitches. Rizzo has been hit 40 times over the last two seasons.
He finished the 2017 regular season with 99 runs, 32 home runs, 109 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a .273 batting average.
28-year-old is the epitome of consistency. He has produced four consecutive seasons of elite production, hitting 31 or 32 home runs each year and has more than 100 RBI in all of the last three seasons.
Both the Cubs and fantasy baseball owners can rely on Rizzo. The left-hander has averaged 154 games in each of the last five seasons. There is a skill attached to remaining healthy.
Although there is a surprising downward trend in his wRC+ from 155 in 2014 to 133 in 2017, there is an argument that Rizzo is maturing into an even better hitter. This season, for the first time in his career, he joined the exclusive club of walking more than striking out, which helped set a career-high .392 OBP.
Rizzo made 10 appearances at second base. If you play in a league where 10 games triggers position eligibility, then that gives an immense boost to his value.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
Rizzo is brilliant. His consistency allows you to build a team around the foundation of elite contributions in counting stats of runs, home runs and RBI, plus he will give you double-digit stolen bases.
But I’m taking Turner.
In points leagues, Turner has out-produced Rizzo on a points-per-game basis over both of the last two seasons. And this includes his 2017 season which some people are calling a disappointment.
In roto leagues, Turner offers championship-winning dominance in stolen bases. No other elite base-stealer contributes so much in the other categories.
In category leagues, Turner will give you a 30 point batting average advantage over Rizzo, and the Nationals’ leadoff hitter should score at least 20 more runs. Home runs and RBI go to Rizzo, but the biggest differential is in stolen bases. You can project Rizzo for seven next season and Turner for 70.