Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Hanley Ramirez or Yuli Gurriel?
By Gavin Tramps
Neither Red Sox Hanley Ramirez or Astros Yuli Gurriel should be your first baseman unless you play in a very deep league. So which one are you taking as your corner infielder or DH next year?
The ALDS contest between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros features two 30-something sluggers with very different levels of MLB experience. Yuli Gurriel, the Astros first baseman entered the season with his rookie status intact, while the Red Sox DH Hanley Ramirez is a veteran with 13-years of playing at the game’s highest level behind him.
Both players caused much excitement in draft rooms with the speculation of impressive seasons ahead. Ramirez was fresh off a 30-homer bounceback year, and the prospect of transitioning to the Red Sox full-time DH would surely result in fewer injuries and more plate appearances for the 33-year-old.
In his final season in Cuba, Gurriel hit 15 home runs with 51 RBI in 49 games and an eye-watering on-base percentage of over .800. No one believed he would reproduce this level of production in MLB, but the potential was enticing.
As their teams reached the must-win games of September, Ramirez missed eight games while hitting just .214, losing his place in the lineup as Boston’s manager John Farrell used the DH to rest their talisman Dustin Pedroia or to give rookie Sam Travis some big league at-bats.
Gurriel was also omitted from the Astros’ starting lineup eight times in September, but when he did play, he hit .333 with .925 OPS.
Are you taking the 30-something veteran who, in his time, has been the best player in fantasy baseball or are you taking the 30-something newbie?
Yuli Gurriel (1B-HOU)
Pre-season, we opined that no one knew what to expect from Gurriel. Expectations ranged from a better version of Jose Abreu to the next Cuban flop (think Rusney Castillo or Hector Olivera).
His 2015 stats in Cuba included a mind-numbing .589/874/1.463 slash line and a 1.7% strikeout rate.
In his first full MLB season, Gurriel slashed .299/.332/.486 in 139 games for the red-hot Astros. The 33-year-old hit 18 home runs with 75 RBI and 69 runs, and led the Astros with 46 doubles, which put him tied-sixth in the MLB.
Although he registered one appearance at second base and seven at third base, Gurriel will only be eligible at first base in most leagues in 2018. Unfortunately, he is an appalling first baseman, featuring in the top-3 of worst defenders at the position.
Gurriel started the season in a battle for playing time with Marwin Gonzalez, A.J. Reed and Tyler White. Gonzalez enjoyed a career-year, but A.J. Hinch slotted him into five different positions during the year, so he did not eat into Gurriel’s playing time as much as expected.
Reed destroyed Triple-A pitching for the second straight year, with 34 home runs while slugging .525. He was left in the minors and only recorded six plate appearances in the big leagues in 2017. White played 22 games but struck out 24% of the time.
Gurriel started the season well but endured a dreadful May which distorted his final stat line. From June 1, the power showed up with 14 home runs, 33 doubles and a .317/.346/.531 slash line.
The Astros as a team have the lowest strikeout rate of 17.4%. Gurriel’s strikeout rate of 11% is the lowest on the team. He just hates to strikeout, but also he hates to walk. The Cuban took just 22 free passes this year, which is a walk rate of below 6%. That helps no-one in points leagues.
He continues to struggle against left-handed pitching (.695 OPS) compared to .862 OPS vs. right-handers, and he pulls the ball too much, with 16 of his 18 home runs being pulled.
Hanley Ramirez (DH-BOS)
In contrast to the small sample size of Gurriel, we have 13 years of Major League data to analyze for Ramirez.
He made his debut as a 21-year-old for Red Sox in 2005 before being traded to the Florida Marlins in the deal that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.
He has a career .852 OPS with 263 home runs and 277 stolen bases and this was in an era when shortstops were light-hitters. Ramirez was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2008 with 101 runs, 26 home runs, 27 stolen bases, 106 RBI and a batting average of .342.
In 2016, Ramirez impressed with 30 home runs and a .866 OPS. The expectation of better health and more playing time as the full-time DH in Boston contributed to Ramirez’s ADP of 75.
Unfortunately, he disappointed many owners this year with a .242/.320/.429 slash line. He hit 23 home runs as the DH for the AL East champions. This is poor production in a year when 117 batters hit at least 20 homers.
Ramirez doesn’t run anymore (one success in four attempts suggests that he should not attempt to steal bases). In fact, he doesn’t field anymore. With 18 appearances at first base, the 33-year-old will only have DH-eligibility in most league formats next season.
So what went wrong? 2017 was the first time in his career that Ramirez struck out more than 20% of the time, fueled by a career-high 11.6% swinging strike rate, which contributed to his career-low batting average.
In mitigation, after 1,400 games of being fully involved on the field, the impact of the move to full-time DH should not be underestimated. Other players have shown that it takes time to adjust.
Ramirez is owed $22.7 million next season so he will be the Boston’s DH in 2018 but will need to perform like 2016 and not 2017 if the Red Sox are not to write-off the money.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
Age is undeniably catching up to Ramirez. His only two sub-95 wRC+ seasons have come in the last three years.
The two 30-somethings appear to be trending in different directions. I am not ready to write-off Ramirez. He will plummet down draft boards but expect his second season as a full-time DH to be a significant improvement. He should provide value for his ADP.
I was a Gurriel believer before the season. Although he did not provide the production I needed considering how far I reached to draft him, the Cuban has demonstrated the ability to read Major League pitching. He just needs to get a few more balls off the ground to make his contact rate and power count. I will remain a Gurriel believer in 2018.