Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Aaron Judge or Jose Ramirez?
By Gavin Tramps
Will the Yankees Aaron Judge be the most overhyped player in the draft? Will Jose Ramirez be the most underrated? Who are you targeting next season?
The Game 5 decider of the ALDS will feature the New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, one of the most feared hitters in the game, against Indians’ Jose Ramirez, one of the most consistent hitters.
Physically, these two players could not be much more different. Judge is an enormous 6-foot-7 slugger, while Ramirez is a stocky 5-foot-9 ball of energy.
They are both 25-years-old, and both unexpectedly took the baseball world by storm. Ramirez was never a top prospect but last season, he transitioned from a speedster viewed as nothing more than roster-depth to a utility player who received MVP consideration. This year, he was confirmed as a legitimate star with an even more productive season.
Judge, a former first-round pick, fell off prospect lists after failing to develop in the minors. Preseason, he did not even appear on the consensus top-25 prospects list which brought together the opinions of four of the most respected prospect evaluators in the business.
The outfielder demonstrated only limited power in the minors, hitting 20 home runs in 2015 and 19 in 2016, so no one expected the rookie home run record to be smashed.
He is a fantasy superstar. His total of 52 home runs was only beaten by Giancarlo Stanton, and Judge finished second in runs scored behind Charlie Blackmon, sixth in RBI, and only Joey Votto walked more.
ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft knows a thing or two about fantasy baseball, and according to his rankings, there is nothing to choose between Judge and Ramirez.
Aaron Judge (OF-NYY)
The Yankees’ outfielder produced one of the most sensational rookie seasons in the history of the game, and no-one saw it coming.
Last year, Judge was overmatched in the big leagues, striking out 42 times in 84 at-bats. He looked set to join the long list of poor-plate discipline sluggers with limited value in fantasy or real life. These players were finding it harder to stay in the game. After all, the Milwaukee Brewers had just released their career .218 slugger Chris Carter, and this was after he led the NL with 41 home runs.
Coincidentally, in a January 2017 article of prospects to watch, it was suggested that Judge was more likely to be the next Carter than Stanton.
To demonstrate the lack of enthusiasm towards the rookie, this season Judge was taken with an ADP of 246 (73rd outfielder) sandwiched between Jason Heyward and Nick Markakis.
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Judge’s 2017 season was eye-watering, 128 runs, 52 home runs and 114 RBI. This is a level of production that surpasses the best seasons of the elite hitters like Nolan Arenado or Mike Trout. Judge finished the year with .284 AVG (1.049 OPS) and even stole nine bases. He single-handedly helped win many fantasy baseball championships.
There is an incredible amount of swing and miss in his game, and he led the league with 208 strikeouts. They hurt his value in roto and categories’ leagues but were offset in points leagues by 127 walks.
Fueled by a historic .426 BABIP, the 6-foot-7 slugger hit .329 AVG in the first half. Unsurprisingly, he could not maintain this level, and his batting average dropped to .226 in the second half. The power remained, as he still hit 22 home runs with 48 RBI after the All-Star break.
He looks too good to completely drop off next season, but we have seen other high-strikeout sluggers fail to find consistency year after year.
Will Judge match his sensational rookie campaign next season? Will pitchers just throw him breaking balls? Can he adapt? These questions make the Yankees’ outfielder one of the more difficult players to rank.
The hype that will surround Judge in next season’s draft is similar to Carlos Correa in 2016 and Trea Turner in 2017. Two rookies, over-drafted after sensational starts to their big league careers.
Jose Ramirez (2B/3B/OF-CLE)
Ramirez enjoyed a breakout season in 2016 that few people expected. He hit 11 home runs with 22 stolen bases and .312 batting average. With no prospect pedigree, there was skepticism that the switch-hitter would be capable of a repeat performance this season.
Instead of matching 2016, the 25-year-old eclipsed last season’s production with more runs, doubles, triples, RBI and even a better batting average. He finished the regular season with 107 runs, 29 home runs, 83 RBI and .318 AVG, which all represented career-highs. Ramirez led MLB with 56 doubles and finished with an almost 1:1 walk-to-strikeout rate.
Two straight years of elite production shows it was no fluke. Pitchers have adjusted, and Ramirez has countered the adjustments.
High contact players tend to be light-hitters (think Joe Panik, D.J. LeMahieu) but power hitters with the contact skills of Ramirez are uncommon. Joey Votto and Francisco Lindor are the only other players to hit least 25 home runs with a contact rate above 85%.
We all want large contributions in the home runs, runs and RBI from our players, but it is stolen bases and batting average that are the two most difficult categories to fill. The list of players with 25 home runs, 15 stolen bases and a batting average above .300 contains just two names: Jose Ramirez and Mike Trout.
Ramirez’ skillset looks sustainable. The doubles and home run power are legitimate, and the contact rate and plate discipline point to repeatable production. He is dynamic, but I question whether he will continue to run as much. It will not be surprising if he only just reaches double-digit stolen bases next year.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
It is possible that Judge will be the greatest player of his generation. If he is this good now, imagine the production when he gets more familiar with the pitchers. However, the best hitters of recent years (Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun) do not strike out 30% of the time.
That level of strikeouts usually results in an abbreviated MLB career.
If Ramirez’ five-category contributions do not encourage you to draft him ahead of Judge, then perhaps position scarcity will. If you don’t take Jose Altuve in the first round or Ramirez in the second, there is a big drop-off at second base. Outfield, on the other hand, is the deepest position in the draft.