NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 6 Top Picks and Plays

NFL DFS HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 08: DeAndre Hopkins /

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 6: Top Picks and Plays

We’re back again for week six, which is shaping up to be a bit different from last week’s lineup construction. Unlike last week, with tight pricing, week six offers some significant value plays. Whether you elect to play or fade will be the crucial decisions in tournaments this week. I’ll be aiming to highlight a few of these underpriced value plays, exploitable matchups, changes in workloads, and my hot takes.

NFL DFS Breakdown: Key Skill Position Injuries:

Mohamed Sanu – Beneficiaries: Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper

Terrance West – Beneficiaries: Javorius Allen, Alex Collins

Rob Kelly – Beneficiaries: Samaje Perine

Stefon Diggs – Beneficiaries: Adam Thielen

Devante Parker

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 10/13): Atlanta – 29.5, Washington – 28.75, New England – 28.5, Houston – 28.25, New Orleans 27.25, Kansas City – 25.5

NFL DFS Underpriced Values:

Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara – NO (RB)

New Orleans will host the visiting Detroit Lions in the highest total game of the week, at 50 points. Both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are extremely underpriced given the projected total and the absence of Adrian Peterson. While Peterson wasn’t involved much, it’s still a slight boost to both backs.

Jerick McKinnon – MIN (RB) – DK $4100, FD $5600

With pricing being released before the Monday night game, both sites have McKinnon priced below his expected usage. McKinnon has an attractive floor given his pass catching and is simply mispriced in this spot.

Zach Miller – CHI (TE) – DK $2900

Zach Miller is one of the best punt plays on the board at only $2900. Miller allows you to save significant salary to move up in other positions. The switch to Mitch Trubisky may help Miller out, as he saw seven targets last week. Baltimore is known for their defense against perimeter receivers, but they are ranked as the 32nd most efficient defense against opposing tight ends.

Larry Fitzgerald – ARI (WR) – FD $6600

Arizona will take on the visiting Bucs, in a game that could turn into a shootout, with both teams struggling defensively. While I don’t love playing Fitzgerald as the year progresses, he’s simply too cheap on FanDuel this week. Tampa Bay will have a tough time with Fitz, as they are giving up 21.1 PPR points per game and 10 targets per game to opposing slot wide receivers (via @ScottBarrettDFB)

NFL DFS Matchups to Exploit:

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 08: DeAndre Hopkins /

Houston passing game vs. Cleveland pass defense

As you’ll see in my hot takes section, I’m high on this game as a whole, but specifically the Houston passing game. Cleveland’s run defense is ranked at the 3rd most efficient, yet they rank as the 31st most efficient through the air. In a game that I expect to go over, I think you’ll see a lot of successful passing from the Houston offense.

Jamison Crowder vs. K’Waun Williams

The Redskins have made a concerted effort to become more balanced in recent games, however, with Rob Kelly doubtful and facing a 49’ers defense that is worse against pass, I’d expect Washington to have success through the air. Earlier this week, coach Jay Gruden came out and said, “I think you’ll see more of Jamison Crowder. He’s one of our best skill players. I have to get the ball to him in space more often and get him the flow early.” This should bode well for Crowder who has an excellent matchup against K’Waun Williams. Williams currently has a PFF grade of 38.9.

NFL DFS Changes in Workload:

Jerick McKinnon – MIN (RB)

Questions of Latavius Murray vs. Jerick Mckinnon were answered on Monday night, as McKinnon received 22 touches to Murray’s 14. With salaries being release before the Monday night game, McKinnon is now very underpriced on both sites. McKinnon has an appealing floor given his usage in the pass game and with Diggs and Bradford out, I’d expect Keenum to lean on his pass catching back a bit more.

Taylor Gabriel – ATL (WR)

Mohamed Sanu has recently been announced out, opening up an opportunity for speedster, Taylor Gabriel. Gabriel has played 59% of snaps this season, but when Sanu was out in week 14 of last year, Gabriel was in on 79% of snaps (via @evansilva). I’d expect this week to follow a similar progression and given the matchup with the Dolphins secondary, Gabriel is a sneaky play this week.

NFL DFS Hot Takes:

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 08: Deshaun Watson /

Houston and Cleveland score over a combined 50 points

The Houston offense has been humming along nicely since making the switch to rookie quarterback, DeShaun Watson, and if Cleveland can keep this game close, I think it turns into a shootout.

More from FanSided

This game opened at a total of 44 points and was bet all the way up to a key number of 47. I touched on how the Houston offense should be attacking the Browns through the air, but I also think Kevin Hogan is a significant upgrade to the Browns offense. Hogan went 16 for 19, with 192 yards, two touchdowns and a pick last week. It’s important to note that Houston has lost both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus.

DeSean Jackson scores a touchdown and scores over 20 DraftKings’ points

DeSean Jackson and Jameis Winston have yet to get on the same page, but will have a juicy matchup this week. Arizona cornerback, Patrick Peterson, has proven to be one of the best shutdown corners in the game and so far, wide receivers on the other side of the ball have feasted on Justin Bethel. Bethel currently has a PFF grade of 44.2. Jackson saw a season high, nine targets, against the Patriots, and could play a bigger role in this week’s matchup.

Next: FanDuel Week 6 NFL Picks and Plays

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