Here’s part two of my preview and projections article for the NBA season. Part one was posted yesterday for the Eastern Conference.
For a quick debriefing, I blend together several metrics to get a measure of “team strength,” and then after a few adjustments like age and back-to-back days in the schedule, I regress things and get an output for predicted wins. I use three seasons of metrics for this, weighed by recency, and it includes pure plus-minus measures to box score stats. It’s not too different from other predictions you’ll see at Nylon Calculus, but I use it as a place to drop my thoughts on every team in the league, which have piled up after the long, strange off-season. I’ve also included a bar chart for a selected player from every team, where the stats are all per possession or rates and put in terms of percentiles to make them less abstract.
And with that, let’s see how wrong I’ll be in predicting this season….
Dallas Mavericks
There are two stories for the Mavericks this season: Dirk Nowitzki’s 20th year in the league and the potential rise of Dennis Smith Jr. who has a long list of admirers already. The team is opting for a soft rebuild, where they try to remain competitive while loading up for the future. I’m not a fan of their plans, however, because they chose Harrison Barnes as a centerpiece. One could make a bizarre argument that he’s a spiritual successor to Dirk, due to his isolation scoring and mid-range proclivities, but even Dallas fans would admit he’s not played up to his value. But not all their moves have been duds.
Player spotlight: Nerlens Noel
As a fan of shot-blocking Gumby, I obviously liked their trade to bring in Noel. He’s the type of athletic center who thrives in a smaller, quicker league, and his defense is already quite valuable. I’ve long argued, additionally, that his poor offensive stats — mostly from the all-in-one metrics like RPM or BPM — were a product of his environment. The pre-Joel Embiid 76ers were historically bad on offense, and it made no sense to attribute that to Noel. Indeed, last season as Philly got better overall so did his numbers, and that continued in Dallas. He’s a high-steal, high-block center who has a decently high usage too for his type — he’s good at catching shots near the rim, and he could be their center for the post-Dirk future.
Projection
With no major moves, Dallas should be virtually the same as last year. They have a mix of young and old players too, so an age adjustment doesn’t do much either. You could say that they’ll push for the playoffs because of Dennis Smith Jr., injecting some youthful offense into a plodding team. But don’t bet on rookies helping you win, even one favored by analytic draft models. It’ll be more of the same for the Mavericks, as they try to balance a competitive atmosphere with Dirk Nowitzki while building for a future without him.
Wins: 32.3
Houston Rockets
After years of trying to add another superstar to join James Harden, including the disappointing stint with Dwight Howard the Rockets probably landed the right guy in Chris Paul. Yes, there’s only one ball, and Harden did maximize his value last season by hogging the ball and posting the assist rate of a guy like, well, Chris Paul. But in a league with the Warriors, bold action is required if you want to challenge for the title.
Functionally, Harden and Paul are not bad complements. Both can shoot from outside when they’re without the ball, of course, and Paul is actually a naturally low-usage, pass-first guy anyway. He was fine with deferring to Blake Griffin, and when Harden is on the bench he can up his role. That actually might be the nicest subtle benefit — Harden can actually rest now. Plus, the defense could be improved, factoring in Paul’s ballhawking along with the additions of P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
Player spotlight: Clint Capela
More attention will be paid to their stars and some of their other shooters, like Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. But Capela was undeniably a big part of their success. Looking at the stats below, he had a strangely high-usage rate for a guy who can’t shoot outside the paint, and he was efficient at finishing. You can see his shot profile below: he rarely shot away from the basket and he had one of the lowest unassisted field goal rates in the league. With Chris Paul in town, those easy opportunities should not cease. Defensively, he’s valuable too, and with all their “small” lineups his rebounding is critical. Without someone like him they’d be crushed on the glass.
Projection
I suppose it’s odd that so many predictions are seeing the Rockets with roughly the same total as last season, but there’s some solid reasoning there. Firstly, there’ll be some diminishing returns with James Harden and Chris Paul. Harden used the ball at prodigious rates last season with a high success rate, and that simply won’t be possible this season. Also, everything went well for the Rockets last season — even Ryan Anderson and Eric were healthy, and both players have had only one other season in their careers where they played more games. Finally, Patrick Beverley was secretly valuable, at least according to most metrics, so the Chris Paul upgrade wasn’t as large as most would assume. All told, they’re still arguably the second-best team in the West, which is as much as you can humanly hope for at this point.
Wins: 58.5
Memphis Grizzlies
They’ve actually been to the playoffs every year since 2011 with largely the same core. Things will be different this season, but it remains to be seen if their zombie powers will still be active — will they once again outperform expectations, win close games, and make the playoffs?
Player spotlight: JaMychal Green
With Zach Randolph gone, the opportunity is there for some of Memphis’ (few) youngsters. Appropriately, JaMychal is not even that young anymore, having already turned 27. But, fully formed, he’s a useful player, and ironically the opposite of Zach. He’s an efficient, outside shooting stretch big, who’s slim and more of a role player than the rumbling scorer Zach was. He does have decent rebounding stats for a stretch big, but that might be the effect of playing next to Marc Gasol, who happily cedes easy boards to teammates.
Projection
Oddly, my statistical projection favors the Grizzlies more than others, and even more than a lot of subjective predictions, like the ESPN summer forecast or some Vegas lines. It’s partly because some of my numbers didn’t love the old men they lost, like Zach Randolph, but it’s also because they could have a “usage bump.” Teams who lose a lot of high usage guys often have a rebound effect and are better than expected by advanced stats — Memphis’ combined estimate usage is around 89 percent, so the adjustment is significant but modest. In any case, I’ll happily be optimistic about the Grizzlies, who have regularly exceeded expectations thanks to the anti-stat voodoo of sir John Hollinger.
Wins: 38.2
New Orleans Pelicans
The experiment of DeMarcus Cousins was fun at first, but reality rushed forward with a vengeance and New Orleans had another disappointing season with Anthony Davis. In truth, they never addressed the root cause of their issues, and it’s not one the team likes addressing because it’s, well, the organization itself. Aside from their two big men and Jrue Holiday, it’s an empty team, and nothing has been done to fix their supporting cast. Their best assets, their own draft picks, might be best to hold onto considering their shaky foundation. The Pelicans are a great illustration of how landing a superstar in the draft won’t solve everything.
Player spotlight: DeMarcus Cousins
You can see numerous people now saying, “I told you so,” about Cousins with New Orleans, but we haven’t seen the final draft of him with the team and there’s a reason he was such a compelling trade target, even with all the off-court (and, well, on-court) issues. During the last few years the high-scoring center appeared to be going the way of the Great Auk. Cousins was the era-defying example, and he’s evolved his game to include the 3-point line. Overall, he posts monstrous stat-lines in almost every conceivable way, and the Kings did appear to be significantly better with him on the court — those numbers weren’t for nothing, and they sure are entrancing to view.
Projection
With few changes, the key here is a full season of DeMarcus Cousins. Don’t focus too much on their win percentage with him after the trade — that was only a few games, and their point differential was actually better anyway. That’s more indicative of team strength. A full season with Cousins should pick them up a few wins — think of all the time Davis sits, whether injured or not. My system likes New Orleans more than most because Cousins looks incredible through some stats, but I’m not entirely convinced they’ll snag the eighth seed. He’s just not the solution the team needs; they have a lot of other issues to fix.
Wins: 44.9
San Antonio Spurs
It’s October, so it’s time for pumpkins, horror movies, and underestimating the Spurs. The Warriors have left everyone in the dust, including this exceedingly steady team, but if last year’s champions stumble at all — and it can happen even with an inevitable team — few teams like San Antonio are as equipped to steal the title. Being consistent can have drawbacks, but it also means you’re there to strike when there’s a small window of an opportunity. That’s San Antonio.
Player spotlight: Kyle Anderson
“Slow-Mo” is the archetype of players overrated by statistical plus-minus metrics like mine and Basketball-Reference’s. Versatile players who rack up rebounds and assists are usually quite valuable, and as an added bonus he’s a low usage player on a great defense — thus, stats peg him as an excellent defender. However, a metric blind to those counting stats like RAPM saw him as an above-average player, especially on defense, so perhaps I shouldn’t be so critical. He’s certainly a perplexing player, and if he can hit more outside shots he could earn more playing time too. The league will be better for it — by comparison, everyone else will seem faster.
Projection
San Antonio’s projection, which is great for the average NBA team but nothing special for them, is based on their offseason. I wasn’t a fan of letting Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon Simmons go. Both provided athleticism and defense the team needed. Then they brought in Rudy Gay, as if to mock statistical projection gods. Even the Spurs shouldn’t be able to actually find value in him. I saw some comments about his size and athleticism will be vital for multiple lineup types, from small ball to suffocating with size with him and Kawhi Leonard on the wings, but I don’t think those people remember how he fared in other cities. But this is still going to be a great team, and Kawhi could fight for an MVP award if it weren’t for his left quads — let’s hope he comes back healthy.
Wins: 51.9
Denver Nuggets
Depending on who you talk to, Denver is either an overlooked gem or everyone’s darling. The passing and scoring touch of Nikola Jokic lit the NBA on fire last season, and somehow they stole Paul Millsap, one of the few ideal frontcourt mates you could find for him. You want a big to help with your defense, someone who can defend smaller players, and hopefully someone who can space the floor too so you can play around Nikola — that’s hard to find, and they picked him up for nothing because they nabbed him in free agency. The playoffs shouldn’t be too far away for the team.
Player spotlight: Nikola Jokic
Might as well admire his stats, right? Few players have assisted at high rates with absurdly high efficiency too — and he’s the only big man to do so in recent NBA history. His defense seems to be his weakness, but a lot of metrics favor him there. He’s at least a good rebounder; but the eye does see a few flaws on that end of the court. I wouldn’t expect his efficiency to hold at that level — even prime Dirk Nowitzki can’t keep shooting like that from the mid-range — but he could also truly extend his range to outside the line and hit 3-pointers more consistently. Just don’t call him a unicorn; he’s another in the long line of Eastern European big men who are exceptional passers.
Projection
Even though Denver is adding Paul Millsap and they get a full season of Jokic as their rightful starting center, the projection is pretty modest. The central issue is that Jokic improved so substantially that even with an age adjustment he’s projected as being less valuable. I think this is reasonable — an objective observer would view his performance as a bit of an outlier. His shooting efficiency should regress, at least. Elsewhere, the team is pretty weak on the wings, and they’re still searching for a long-term solution at point guard. They’ve got a good foundation inside but they still have a long way to go.
Wins: 46.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
As if the Western Conference needed to be tougher, Minnesota benefited from Chicago’s grade-F trade — this could rightfully be termed a steal. Jimmy Butler will definitely make them better, but the extent to which hinges on two questions: just how much better do you think he is than Zach LaVine? And how well will the team fit together? Some of the details about how the team will work can be ironed out later — the important bit is that they now have a star scorer to pair with Karl-Anthony Towns.
Player spotlight: Andrew Wiggins
The world has beaten the topic of Wiggins and his value to death, but I think it’s useful to view his stats in context. Other than shooting often, he doesn’t do a whole lot to help the team; and you definitely can’t argue his defense picks up the slack. Strangely, Jimmy Butler is like the vision of Wiggins many fans have in their heads — Wiggins doesn’t pass or defend like Butler, even if his physical type and playing style suggests otherwise.
Projection
Once again, the Timberwolves performed well below their point differential, winning 31 games with a margin of victory that said roughly 38 wins. If they want to finally break into the post-season and not be just a speed bump in the first round for the Warriors, they’ll need to exorcise those late-game demons. Maybe with some new personnel that’ll be extinguished — we’ll see. In any case, even with an awkward fit of three slashers in the backcourt who are all shaky outside shooters, the upgrade alone from Zach LaVine to Jimmy Butler will be enough of an upgrade to propel them into the next tier.
Wins: 49.8
Oklahoma City Thunder
Too bad the Thunder couldn’t have made moves like these when Kevin Durant was still around — even if Paul George leaves after a year, he’s still the perfect kind of super 3-and-D player for the team, and they only gave up a rookie who had a shaky season and Victor Oladipo, who’s overpaid anyway. Then they brought in Patrick Patterson, a stretch-4 who’s underrated on defense and fits in remarkably well with their starting lineup.
Alas, the team broke their streak of perfect deals with Carmelo Anthony. His isolation offense won’t be called upon as often, he’s a poor defender, and he’ll take time away from Patterson. However, they gave up two terrible defenders in Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter to get him anyway, so it’s a step backwards; it’s just not the steal that the other two moves were. Plus, we may finally get to see Olympic ‘Melo, playing full-time at power forward and in support mode of other stars, in the NBA.
Player spotlight: Andre Roberson
Most of the other players are known quantities, so perhaps it’s best to spend more time on Andre Roberson. He’s an oddity of a wing player. He barely shoots, and when he does he’s an awful shooter; he doesn’t pass either. However, he’s a very good defender, and he looks better with a plus-minus stat like RPM because of his on-court impact. Statistically, he’s more similar to a big man because of his shooting and rebounding, and he actually had a higher block rate than Steven Adams.
Projection
There’s no question the team will be better — they won 47 games with a point differential a little under one. It’s more about how strong of a contender this new team can be. There are a lot of new key rotation pieces, and you’ve got Russell Westbrook following a historic season too. Perhaps the team will be better off overall with him reducing his load, even if his numbers decline substantially. I’d be more concerned with how they use Carmelo Anthony and whether or not they can surround their stars with more shooting (Andre Roberson is a liability in that respect.) Carmelo would be best as a sixth man, buoying all the non-Westbrook lineups. But I don’t think his ego, or the coach’s will, is strong enough.
Wins: 52.0
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland has painted itself into a corner, giving huge contracts to its backcourt and some of its supporting players. They managed to unload Allen Crabbe’s contract onto someone else, but they don’t have much room to work with here. It’ll all be about recapturing that Jusuf Nurkic magic — and I’m skeptical things will be as successful for a full season.
Player spotlight: CJ McCollum
The Portland combo guard enjoyed a semi-breakout season, scoring at a prodigious rate after he signed a massive extension with the team (he’ll be getting nearly $30 million in 2021.) His value comes from scoring, of course, but it’s impressive how efficient he was last season even when so much of his offense came from the midrange. He’s not a blackhole, as you can see from his assist rate, but he doesn’t have the assist numbers of a point guard either. For a one-dimensional player, he has a huge contract, and he’ll have to keep scoring efficiently to provide anywhere close to that value.
Projection
With few changes, there’s an enormous amount of attention centered on how the team did with Jusuf Nurkic. But people should be cautious there. It was only 20 games, even in a new environment players tend to play toward their historic means. But Nurkic really is a nice fit on the team, and on smaller lineups where Al-Farouq Aminu is the power forward he has a lot of space to operate in. They have a couple other useful role players too, like Mo Harkless, and they could make the playoffs again.
Wins: 42.1
Utah Jazz
The sad part about the NBA is that sometimes when small market teams finally find success, others come in and scavenge the best parts. Thus, the Jazz lost their entire starting backcourt in George Hill and Gordon Hayward — that’s a lot of production to replace. Thankfully, they brought in Ricky Rubio for ball-handling duties, but their offense will certainly take a step back.
Player spotlight: Joe Ingles
The Australian wing will be called upon to shoulder more of the offensive responsibility in Utah. Already 30, he’s not a guy looking to fulfill his potential, but he’s still a useful, versatile role player who’ll be needed — the team will be starved for spacing, and they have fewer shooters now. He’s a tall, feisty, agile defender, and he has quick hands; he had one of the best steal rates in the league.
Projection
I’d be pretty optimistic on the Jazz this season, all things considered. First of all, just like George Hill, Ricky Rubio is an underrated point guard, and he’ll fit in well with their suffocating defense. His weakness — shooting or just scoring in general — means that he’s not as effective off-the-ball, but since there are no other dominating ball-handlers or scorers on the team, that issue will be inert. Thabo Sefolosha is another smart pickup too; and again it’s another tough defender with a great wingspan. Even if the offense stumbles, their defense will be elite, and that’ll be enough to compete for a playoff spot again in the mid-40’s in the win column.
Wins: 43.9
Golden State Warriors
Well, what can you say? They’re playing for the title of best team in NBA history, not just the paltry NBA championship. They brought back the band and added two shooters in Omri Casspi and Nick Young, the latter of whom was sixth in 3-pointers taken per possession last season. Barring major injury, they’ll lead the league in wins easily and may flirt with 70 again.
Player spotlight: Zaza Pachulia
The fifth Beatle, Zaza is less known and revered by NBA fans. He’s known as one of the few holes in their armor, but he does have a few great qualities. He’s a great passer for his position, and he’s transformed himself into a decent long-range shooter too. Also, on the Warriors, he saw his efficiency surge as he got more shots at the rim — no surprise, but these superior teammates probably helped. He can be slow on defense, but he’s smart on that end of the court and strong — overall, he’s a plus; he’s just not star, even if voting efforts nearly put him there.
Projection
Yeah, they’re going to be really good.
Wins: 68.0
Los Angeles Clippers
The core trio lasted longer than I thought it would, but it was finally broken up and the Clippers have to move on without Chris Paul. Maybe it seems like a distant memory to some people, but the Clippers were a cursed and ruined franchise before he arrived. They had never reached 50 wins before, and this is a franchise that goes back to 1971. Their only other successful period in modern history before Chris Paul ended with 47 wins led by Elton Brand, who then left for Philadelphia and promptly tore his Achilles tendon. Hopefully this era will go more smoothly.
Player spotlight: Patrick Beverley
You’ll see most projection systems favoring the Clippers to a surprising degree, and it’s because Chris Paul’s replacement, Beverley, rates quite well by many metrics. He’s not a traditional point guard — he doesn’t net a lot of assists and doesn’t score a lot — but he’s a true 3-and-D player. He’s one of the best defenders at his position; the Clippers will not fall off there. He definitely won’t replace Paul’s offense, but he plays well off the ball and can fit in well with other scorers.
Projection
Beverley wasn’t the only addition. Milos Teodosic will immediately become one of the flashiest, most exciting passers, but his defense will be a concern and the track record of international guards is not strong. Lou Williams can also provide a lot of their offense lost, and as long as he doesn’t succumb to the ravages of aging too soon he should do a reasonably solid job there. They also added Danilo Gallinari, which I do not like despite my love for him; they signed him to a long-term contract and his best position is power forward these days. All told, if their new guards can throw lobs to their frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, the transition process could go well — as long as that curse has lifted.
Wins: 50.9
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are a charmed franchise. They managed to keep their first round pick for the second overall pick overall in a draft with two clear star prospects. In fact, Lonzo Ball is projected as the best player by most draft models. And along with some of their other players, they’re deep into their rebuilding process now, which still sounds weird to many of their fans.
Player spotlight: Julius Randle
I was never a fan of Randle because he’s an undersized frontcourt player who didn’t display a lot of shooting in college, but he’s developed well in the NBA even after suffering through a broken leg. He’s an excellent defensive rebounder for his size, and he’d probably have good offensive rebounding numbers too if he played more inside. He has serious range on his shot, flirting with the 3-point line, and he’s a good passer too — with a different name people would mistake him for a European big man.
Projection
Many people are higher on the Lakers this season than they should be. Yes, Lonzo Ball is a great prospect, and the team is primed well — but they’re primed well for the future, not the present. They have some veterans who aren’t difference makers like Brook Lopez and Luol Deng, and while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a nice get, they’ll be relying a lot of young players without a lot of experience. Ball will probably be great one day, but during his rookie season he’ll be a large net negative, just like most NBA stars were.
Wins: 25.7
Phoenix Suns
I have thought less about the Suns than every other NBA team over the summer, and some of that is because of their inactivity — they went dormant after the draft. But it also says something about the confidence I have in the franchise. There’s a lot of young talent and prospects on the roster, but they’re a long way from competing and I’m not optimistic on their chances in the future.
Player spotlight: Alex Len
A lottery pick back in 2013, Alex has had a patchy career so far, alternating between rough and promising seasons. Last year was one of the good ones. His efficiency was okay, and he rebounded and blocked shots at a rate you’d want to see from a 7-foot center. But he’s a low-skill player who takes only a handful of jump shots with limited accuracy and has some of the worst assist and turnover rates. If he can’t finish inside well and protect the rim, he won’t have enough value to stick around the league.
Projection
Since the Suns made few changes in the off-season, you can expect more of the same from last year — i.e. jockeying for lottery position. They’ll be a little better due to age, but they still have a number of veterans who are only getting older, and their best player, Eric Bledsoe, is nearly 28 years old. I’d say it’d be wise to blow the whole thing up, but I don’t yet trust their drafting abilities. And we’ll see what becomes of their newest lottery pick, Josh Jackson. He’s another lanky, raw forward. It’s still a team full of projects.
Wins: 24.8
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are still in a post-DeMarcus Cousins honeymoon phase, as I think many fans think their future is brighter now without the malcontent scorer. But the problem with the team starts at the top; they’re not going to magically turn things around now. I’m not quite sure what the team’s plan is though. They brought in a couple of old guys presumably as mentors — yes, we’re living in a strange world where Zach Randolph and Vince Carter are role models. But they also brought in George Hill, a quality point guard in his prime who was just on a playoff team. I don’t know if the Kings thought they could compete this year for the last playoff spot or if they think it’ll only take a couple years to be competitive — but they’ll be stuck in the lottery, regardless of what they think.
Player spotlight: George Hill
After an excellent season with Utah, I feel that his talents will be wasted on the Kings. He’s a great defender; he has plus size for his position with a tremendous wingspan. He’s been at the head of some of the better defenses of the past few years: the Jazz, the Spurs, and the Pacers. On offense, he’s not an overwhelming force, but he’s malleable, taking on a larger role when it’s needed. For instance, his usage rate surged last season above his historic average. And when he takes on a smaller role, he can hit open shots. Ideally, he’d be a table-setting point guard on a contending team with a high-scoring wing, but I can’t fault Sacramento for stealing him — it’s a great descending salary contract for $57 million, guaranteed for just $1 million in year three. Hopefully they flip him for more assets eventually.
Projection
In some fantasy world, the release of Cousins from their locker room would lead to a golden era, but that’s not reality. They’ll be relying on a lot of young players who are still developing NBA skills and veterans who don’t move the needle. The exception is George Hill, who by one analysis would be the most costly injury in the NBA, mostly because the alternatives on the Kings are awful. If he’s injured, which happens often, or if he’s traded, things will get ugly. But they’ll compete for the lottery prize with or without him, whether or not they want to accept it.
Wins: 23.1
Final projections
Here’s the final version of my win predictions, as I tweaked some minutes and the methodology a little after posting the Eastern Conference results. I’ve also thrown in some random NBA award predictions for a good laugh in nine months or so.
MVP: Stephen Curry, as he will light the world on fire.
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert because Utah will be at least a top-two defense.
Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers. This goes to, basically, the most surprising team of the season, and the Clippers should surprise people and Doc is already respected.
Rookie of the Year: Lonzo Ball since he’ll get a lot of touches and the Lakers will get exposure.
Sixth Man of the Year: Andre Iguodala (please.)
Champion: Golden State Warriors (if not them, then Houston)
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
Let’s basketball.