DraftKings NBA GPP Plays – October 18
NBA action comes in strong tonight with 11 games on the DraftKings Main Slate. With such a large player pool, it is important to narrow down your core group of guys for your DraftKings NBA GPP plays. There’s plenty of value at each position to allow you to pay up for some elite talent.
Last night’s NBA Opening Night two game slate was quite eventful, coming down to two potential game-winning/tying shots. 266.5 DraftKings points marked the baseline for cashing in on the NBA $1M Tipoff Special, while the top score of 341.25 DraftKings points was shared by two players.
On such a such a small slate, I played a single lineup, which reached 304.75 points. I rostered LeBron James who went significantly under-owned relative to the rest of the field. It just goes to show you how much influence a questionable tag can have on ownership.
Let’s jump into tonight’s slate as I discuss players who I think can give you 5x, 6x and even 7x value. Be aware of multiple position eligibility for some players, which could give you an edge in your roster construction from slate to slate.
DraftKings NBA GPP Plays: October 18 – Point Guards
Elite
Damian Lillard ($10,400) vs. PHO
I don’t think there’s such thing as too much Damian Lillard tonight. Teammate C.J. McCollum won’t be suiting up due to a one-game suspension, which means Lillard will be the primary source of offense in a game with the highest O/U of the slate at 220 total points. Lillard’s usage rate was a massive 35.2% without McCollum last season.
John Wall ($9,800) vs. PHI
Wall is the primary ball handler on a team with the second highest implied total points at 111.3. If you wanted to pivot off Lillard, Wall is a great choice. He averaged 51.1 DraftKings points in three meeting against the Sixers last year.
Kyrie Irving ($8,500) vs. MIL
Irving’s arrival in Boston might not have gone to plan with Gordon Hayward going down with a brutal leg injury. Irving will be leaned on even more this season as he tries to keep the Celtics competitive. He finished with 50.5 DraftKings points last night and could be in line for a repeat performance. Although the Bucks defense is schemed to stop opposing point guards, there’s little a defense can do about an elite talent like Irving.
Mid-Tier
Dennis Schroder ($7,400) vs. DAL
Schroder will be carrying the load this season for the Hawks after the departure of Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. Schroder will certainly get the minutes and opportunities on offense. The game could play a bit slow against the Mavericks; however, there is narrative that they are looking to pick up their pace of play this season. If this is true, Schroder would benefit as the opposing point guard looking to keep his team in the game.
Goran Dragic ($7,100) vs. ORL
Last night we saw the public jump off LeBron James because he was carrying a question tag, despite being in a primetime setting with an exciting revenge narrative. Dragic comes into this game with a questionable tag and should receive low ownership as a result. The Magic defense against the position is poor with Elfrid Payton sporting a defensive real plus-minus rating of -0.78.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,600) vs. IND
Russell is one of my favorite plays on tonights slate. After being shipped to the Nets from the Lakers this offseason, he should see a large share of the team’s usage. After Russell and Jeremy Lin, there aren’t many offensive weapons on this Nets team. Don’t be surprised if Russell gets you 6x value tonight.
Value
Marcus Smart ($5,000) vs. MIL
Smart was cold from the field in last night’s season opener, but he was still able to put up 34.75 DraftKings points due to his hustle and defensive play. Smart came of the bench to start the game, but found himself starting in the second half due to Gordon Hayward’s injury. We’ll see if he gets the start from tipoff tonight, but the minutes will be there either way.
Ish Smith ($4,100) vs. CHA
Smith can put up fantasy points in a hurry and is a great value play when given the opportunity. Stan Van Gundy hasn’t spilled on whether Smith or Reggie Jackson will have the starting point guard position this year, but he has alluded to the fact that both will receive plenty of minutes. I love this play if you’re looking to save big at point guard.
DraftKings NBA GPP Plays: October 18 – Shooting Guards
Elite
James Harden ($10,200) vs. SAC
The Beard was impressive last night, finishing with 53.5 DraftKings points. The addition of Chris Paul didn’t cut into Harden’s usage as he was the offensive focal point down the stretch. The Kings are terrible against the shooting guard position and Harden averaged 52.6 DraftKings points last season in four games against Sacramento. The only fear here is that Houston blows out the Kings, limiting Harden’s minutes.
Jimmy Butler ($8,100) vs. SAS
As one of the new faces in Minnesota, Butler will look to find his role. He is undoubtedly a talented player and can fill the stat sheet in a variety of ways. Butler is a viable tournament play as I expect him to have low ownership as most people will take a wait-and-see approach. Tom Thibodeau is known for giving his starters a heavy workload, so Butler’s opportunities should be there.
Mid-Tier
Eric Bledsoe ($7,600) vs. POR
Bledsoe is in a great spot against the Trailblazers, which has the highest total and a 1.5-point spread. This contest will be extremely fast paced with a ton of scoring. I think Bledsoe is significantly underpriced and could be used in a game stack to maximize value.
Bradley Beal ($7,000) vs. PHI
As Wall’s counterpart, Beal can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. He is a sure bet to put up 20-plus points and is a top three-point shooter, averaging 2.9 threes per game last year. As long as this game doesn’t get out of hand, Beal could give you 6x value.
Value
Avery Bradley ($5,500) vs. CHA
A new addition to Detroit, Bradley is an elite defensive player who can stuff the box score in multiple ways. He is a great source of steals, rebounds and points and looks to be one of the Pistons primary offensive weapons. In five games against Charlotte last year, Bradley averaged 30.8 DraftKings points.
Eric Gordon ($4,800) vs. SAC
Gordon was instant offense last night off the bench, scoring 24 points in 29 minutes. The 24-point performance was most impressive given the fact that he didn’t knock down a single three. Gordon had command of the second unit and still looked to be aggressive with Harden on the floor.
Jaylen Brown ($3,900) vs. MIL
Perhaps the highlight of the night, Brown had a breakout game, picking up the slack for the injured Hayward. He led the Celtics in points and shot attempts with 25 and 23, respectively. His 36 DraftKings point performance was nearly 10x value. He’s only $200 more expensive tonight and is in a matchup that favors wing players. Brown is a great value source again tonight.
DraftKings NBA GPP Plays: October 18 – Small Forwards
Elite
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300) vs. BOS
The Alphabet really came into his own last year and is poised to continue this momentum. He is “the guy” in Milwaukee, averaging nearly 50 DraftKings points last season. Antetokounmpo is a reliable option at SF as he can provide value in just about every category. You don’t need him to put up a 30 point game to give you good value. His ceiling is high enough to warrant rostering him at this price tag. He’s clearly the most dominant player in his position on this slate.
Mid-Tier
Ben Simmons ($7,100) vs. WAS
I was close to placing Simmons in the elite plays section, but it is hard having not seen him in regular season action. He’s the projected Rookie of the Year and looked good in the preseason. Simmons can put up fantasy points in multiple ways, which significantly raises his floor. He appears healthy, but we’ll have to wait and see if there’s any easing him into the season.
Rodney Hood ($5,800) vs. DEN
Hood is the front-runner to fill the scoring shoes that Hayward left in his move to Boston. Hood’s usage rate should see a major increase and if he can get hot from beyond the arc, he’ll provide good value for his price. He faces a Nuggets team that loves to push the ball, so we’ll see whether or not the slow pace of play of the Jazz can hold its ground. Either way, Hood will see enough minutes to make a difference.
Value
Maurice Harkless ($4,600) vs. PHO
Lillard can’t be the only one to fill the single-game void of Mccollum. My under the radar pick to see increased production is Harkless. He battled with Evan Turner for the starting small forward position, but should see solid minutes regardless. At $4,600 in a fast paced game, don’t be shocked if he gives you 5x value. Harkless is probably my boldest call of the slate, but that’s what you need to take down a large field GPP.
Jayson Tatum ($4,100) vs. MIL
The rookie held his own on a big stage last night and was a great value play. He put up 32.5 DraftKings points, which was over an 8x value. His price has only jumped $200 and should see the same usage as last night. Tatum and Brown will probably be the value chalk tonight, but it’s tough to argue with their opening night numbers and low price tag.
DraftKings NBA GPP Plays: October 18 – Power Forwards
Elite
Anthony Davis ($10,500) vs. MEM
The Brow is always a threat to put up 75 DraftKings points, but at the same time could wreck an entire lineup by leaving early with an injury. He isn’t the most sturdy player, but it’s hard to deny the monster performances he’s put up. There’s not much to say that isn’t already known. Davis is an incredible talent and worth the price tag if you’re willing to painfully watch him try to get through a game unscathed.
Nikola Jokic ($9,100) vs. UTA
Jokic arrived on the scene last season with some flashy passes and stat stuffing performances. He averaged nearly 17 points and 10 rebounds, while adding on five assists per game. He should only benefit from the addition of Paul Millsap and his ability to stretch the floor. However, I’m not opposed to fading Jokic tonight as he has a tough matchup against Rudy Gobert.
Mid-Tier
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,300) vs. MIN
Aldridge didn’t have the effect that most expected last season, but has shown signs of his old self this preseason. With Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker out, Aldridge will be the focal point of the offense. In games without Leonard and Parker last season, Aldridge’s usage rate jumped 5.9 percent to 32.4 percent. Who knows of he’ll return to his Portland ways, but tonight might be his best shot at breaking out.
Paul Millsap ($7,200) vs. UTA
The newsest addition to the Nuggets, Millsap has been one of the steadiest power forwards in terms of fantasy production. He provides value with his point scoring, rebounding and passing ability. He can effectively stretch the floor and should see less pressure with Jokic’s presence. It wouldn’t be alarming if Millsap finished with the most DraftKings points among the Nuggets tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($6,900) vs. MIA
This could be Gordon’s breakout year now that he’ll be able to play from the power forward position all season. He showed signs of greatness with a few 20 point, 10 rebound performances last season. I expect his points and rebound numbers to take a significant leap this year, starting with the season opener.
Value
Greg Monroe ($5,400) vs. BOS
Monroe is a classic bruiser who saw fluctuating minutes last season. When given the chance, he’s nearly a lock for a double-double and some defensive counting stats. With Jabari Parker out, the playing time for Monroe should be there and I expect him to make the most of it. He faces a Celtics team tonight that doesn’t have the most physically threatening frontcourt in the league.
JaMychal Green ($5,200) vs. NOP
Word is that the Grizzlies want to push the rock more this year. There isn’t much talent to capitalize on the potentially added possessions, which makes me think Green will be one of the key contributors. Last year, we saw him put up solid numbers even when given capped minutes. Given the opportunity, Green could post a double-double with a couple three pointers. A 6x value performance isn’t out of the question.
Marquese Chriss ($5,100) vs. POR
Chriss is a talented young player who should step into a much larger role this season for the Suns. He’s a stretch big man who can knock down the triple, while still racking up boards and blocked shots. As I’ve mentioned, the game script is extremely favorable and there will be plenty of opportunity. Chriss’ position eligibility as a PF/C makes him even more attractive if you want to pay down at center.
DraftKings NBA GPP Plays: October 18 – Centers
Elite
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000) vs. MEM
Like is frontcourt partner, Boogie is one of the most volatile players on the slate. He can thrash a defense for a 40 point, 15 rebound performance, or can sit out the first half with three quick (and dumb) fouls. Who knows what kind of mood Cousins will be in tonight, but his dominant play makes him a difficult fade.
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Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400) vs. SAS
One of the brightest young players in the league, Towns is a lock for 25 points and 10-plus boards with a handful of threes. There are more mouths to feed for the Timberwolves this year, which will limit Towns usage, but I don’t think his production will take a major hit. He’s a strong play tonight as a pivot off Cousins.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400) vs. ORL
In four games last season, Whiteside averaged 48.9 DraftKings points per game against the Magic. He is one of the most athletic big men in the league and a premier shot blocker. A 5-plus blocked shot game is never out of the question, which means neither is foul trouble. As long as Whiteside can stay in the game, he’s a reliable source of points, boards and blocks.
Mid-Tier
Myles Turner ($7,700) vs. BKN
Turner produced great numbers last year in a breakout performance. With the departure of Paul George, the Pacers will rely even more on the young center. Turner can hit multiple threes, while still being one of the league’s elite shot blockers. He’s a great talent who should see an increased role this season.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,400) vs. MIA
Vucevic is a quality center with great touch around the rim. At first glance, he has a tough matchup against Whiteside. However, in four games against the Heat last season, Vucevic averaged 46.4 DraftKings points. I expect him to be low owned in this slate despite a favorable matchup.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,900) vs. HOU
I like Cauley-Stein especially if Zach Randolph is out tonight. We’ve seen his potential when given the minutes and could be a nice money saver at the center position. He can give you a 15 point, 10 rebound performance in 20 to 25 minutes of action. I like the potential of a 5x value outing tonight.
Marcin Gortat ($5,200) vs. WAS
Gortat has been one of the most reliable big men for the past few years. He’s heavily involved in the pick-and-roll with Wall, one of the league’s most elite playmakers. He’s a double-double lock with the ability to post a multi-block game. I like his position even more with Joel Embiid being on limited minutes tonight for the Sixers.
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