FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday October 18
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
The first night of NBA DFS started out in sickening fashion as a gruesome injury to Gordon Hayward kicked off the season in a jarring way. I wish the Celtics forward a speedy recovery from a heart-wrenching moment! As for the action on the court, winning GPP line-ups were over 346 FanDuel as monster nights from LeBron James (63.7 FD points), Kyrie Irving (48.8) and big time value from the Celtics youngsters – Jaylen Brown (35.2) and Jason Tatum (29.5) – heled bring down some big money GPP’s on FanDuel.
Over the fourteen FanDuel NBA preseason slates, it has taken 283.6 FanDuel points to take down a GPP which means we were roughly shooting for 4.7x value but the first slate of the regular season with 346 FanDuel points meant we needed 5.7x value to win a tournament!
Over the fourteen FanDuel NBA preseason slates, it has taken 283.6 FanDuel points to take down a GPP which means we were roughly shooting for 4.7x value but the first slate of the regular season with 346 FanDuel points meant we needed 5.7x value to win a tournament!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays:
The big news for Wednesday’s slate is that C.J. McCollum is serving a one game suspension which has massive implications for the remaining Portland Trailblazers starters. Last season with McCollum off the floor, Damian Lillard ($8,800) had a massive 35.2% usage rate, a 2.2% increase, while putting up nearly 46 FanDuel points per 36 minutes of action.
Although we have other solid options at point guard on an 11 game slate, I would prioritize Lillard in this spot as the Portland-Phoenix game has the highest total on the board, Portland has the third highest team total and Lillard averaged 44.4 FD/game against this Suns squad last year. It is important to note that those games last year all had McCollum on the floor so Lillard has a 5x (44 pts) demonstrated floor and now when you add in the increased usage he screams at you as a guy with clear 6x upside tonight!
One strategy you could look to employ tonight is a mini-game stack of the back-courts in this game as the Suns play at one of the highest paces of any team in the NBA, in fact they are second to only Brooklyn based off last year’s numbers. Eric Bledsoe ($7,500) averaged 36.7 FanDuel points per game against Portland last year which puts him right at 5x value at this price point and considering the pace and spread (-1.5), I love the idea of a correlation stack in this game at PG to maximize a fast paced close game!
If you are looking for a pivot play off Bledsoe and you read Picks and Pivots through the preseason – you will know I am all over Dennis Schroder ($7,500) this season as the clear lead dog in Atlanta with the departure of Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. Schroder was one of the league leaders this pre-season in shot attempts per game and although efficiency may be an issue, we simply are looking for counting stats in DFS and I expect Schroder to get those in spades.
Take advantage of the early season value as well as we have starters priced as bench players like Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,300) and Jamal Murray ($4,500) who allow you to spend up at other positions while still capturing high usage point guards in clear starting roles!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Plays:
Even with James Harden ($11,000) on the slate, I think tonight is a night we drop down into the mid-tier at Shooting Guard as the options are strong and we can avoid a potential blowout against the Kings and the fact The Beard played 36 minutes last night against Golden State.
If you are going to read Picks and Pivots each day and frankly you would be crazy not to – we are insightful, witty and the writer is straight up handsome – then you are going to see D’Angelo Russell ($6,600) mentioned literally every slate the Nets play on. No team in the NBA plays at a faster pace than Brooklyn and watching the preseason, it is clear this fast paced, up-tempo style fits the ex-Laker perfectly. Russell is going to be a usage monster in this offense and his SG eligibility on FanDuel makes him a player I will simply lock in any chance I can get!
I mentioned the Portland-Phoenix game as a potential game stack tonight and that would include Devin Booker ($6,800) who averaged 40.8 FanDuel points per game against Portland last season which would already land him at 6x value at this price point! Booker actually led the Phoenix starters in terms of usage last season (30.7%) which helps bring added value and an intriguing ceiling/floor combination to a SG who we know can light up for the scoreboard in a high tempo spot like this one!
If you are looking for a pivot play in this price range, Jrue Holiday ($6,900) will slide back into the PG spot with the injury to Rajon Rondo or you can go right back to the Celtics value well with Jaylen Brown ($3,500) who with the injury to Gordon Hayward put up an absurd 23 shot attempts on Tuesday and will continue to be a focal point of a young Celtics attack!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Small Forward is a GREAT spot for value on this slate and in my initial roster build I am looking at the potential for a double-punt at the position in order to spend up elsewhere! With the injury to Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb ($3,500) will step into the starting line-up for the Hornets at near minimum price as an elite value play tonight. Last season with Batum off the floor, Lamb was second on the team in usage with 26.4% and put up a fantasy points per minute of production! In five starts last season, Lamb averaged 29.7 FanDuel points on the back of 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists which would exceed 8x value at this price point! Lock. Him. In.
I mentioned the Atlanta Hawks new-look line-up earlier in regards to Dennis Schroder but do not overlook the value Taurean Prince ($3,400) can provide at the starting forward position. In ten starts last season, Prince averaged over 20 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6x value at this price point and that was WITH the usage of Millsap/Hardaway Jr. for Atlanta. With both players gone, I expect Prince to take on an expanded role as a secondary scorer and makes for another elite value play you can use individually or as part of a value stack with Jeremy Lamb.
With Kawhi Leonard and Gordon Hayward both out, it leaves Jimmy Butler ($8,700) as the lone high dollar SF option on this slate which also makes for an interesting game theory play as if most look to spend down at SF, then you may get the chance to lock in Butler at lower than deserved ownership!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Position:
We have focused on a ton of mid-range/value plays to this point and that if for good reason as I am looking to spend up at PF tonight and specifically Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200). With Jabari Parker out with an injury, Giannis will take on an even further expanded role as the primary threat in the Bucks offense and with FanDuel’s new scoring which adds value to those who can get Blocks/Steals, I am looking to load up a player who averaged 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game last season (that is 10 FD points alone!).
The mid-range at PF is strong tonight where we can target some young high-upside stars in fast paced games like Ben Simmons ($5,600) and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson ($5,200). We have already touched on the fact that Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace of any team on this slate so having a Russell/RHJ mini-stack is an ideal way to get exposure to that spot but I would prioritize the Sixers star “rookie” tonight in this price point. With Joel Embiid expected to be limited to 16 minutes of action tonight, the increased usage should fall on the shoulders of Simmons who averaged double-digit points,5+ rebounds, 5+ assists and over 2+ combined steals/blocks in only 23 minutes of action per game this preseason!
At the center spot, Jusuf Nurkic ($7,500) stands out as an elite play against a Suns squad that simply has no answer for him on the interior. With C.J. McCollum off the court last season, Nurkic was second on the team in usage at 28.7% which is a 3.2% usage increase while putting up 1.4 fantasy points per minute.
FanDuel NBA– Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Damian Lillard ($8,800)
PG: Eric Bledsoe ($7,500)
SG: Devin Booker ($6,800)
SG: D’Angelo Russell ($6,600)
SF: Jeremy Lamb ($3,500)
SF: Taurean Prince ($3,400)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200)
PF: Ben Simmons ($5,600)
C: Jusuf Nurkic ($7,500)
Slate Overview: We have a full eleven game slate tonight so we have a plethora of options with a TON of value picks that are clearly mis-priced and we need to take advantage early in the season. With so many starters still priced as back-ups you can easily land 1-2 studs and build a high upside line-up with so many options available. I would prioritize getting in one stud (for me that is Giannis), plugging in 1-2 value plays and then loading up for line-up with players in the $6-$8k range! Good luck tonight all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contest and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NHL, NFL and EPL!