Orioles: Believing in Jonathan Schoop’s success in 2018?

Jonathan Schoop had a breakout season for the Orioles in 2017. But, can fantasy owners trust his success heading into next season?

The Baltimore Orioles had a rough 2017 campaign, missing the playoffs and finishing last in the AL East. Amidst all their struggles, Jonathan Schoop had a career-best season and established himself as one of the best second basemen in the game.

But, can fantasy owners trust his success heading into 2018?

Schoop has played in at least 160 games each of the last two seasons while notching over 1300 plate appearances. He finished 2017 with a .293/32 HR/105 RBI/92 R/.841 OPS line. Schoop improved across the board and was easily the O’s best and most consistent player for nearly the whole season.

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Schoop’s talent has never been in question. He has some of the best raw power you will see out of a second baseman and he has an absolute cannon for an arm. Yet, it seemed that there were questions of if he could refine and harness his approach at the plate to further develop his game.

If we dig deeper into his batted ball data, Schoop continued to improve in a couple of areas. For one, he boosted his LD rate up to 21%, and his FB rate to 38%, while dropping his GB rate to 42%.

By, hitting more flyballs and line drives, the results were predictably beneficial.

Not to mention, the fact that he posted 41% Med and 36% Hard contact rates, so he was squaring plenty of balls up this season. For fantasy owners, the safest part of Schoop’s game is the power. He notched 25 HR/38 2B/82 RBI last season, and 32 HR/35 2B/105 RBI in 2017, so it is safe to say that he is going to be a 25 HR threat in 2018.

The key to his continual value,  and what may even jolt him into top-30 overall status, is his AVG. This is where fantasy owners will have to make a choice. Do they believe he is a .280+ hitter or more of the .267 hitter we saw in 2017?

Trying to predict a player’s AVG is fickle and impossible to do, but there is data that help lead us to a general idea. Schoop is going to get his swings in one way or another. Over the last two seasons, he has walked 56 times compared to 279 K. He actually improved his BB rate to 5% this season, but still, strikes out over 20% of the time.

His BABIP, or batting average on balls put in play, was .330. Considering the league average is .300, that number is not so high that it screams his AVG success was luck driven. He handles RHP/LHP well, he posted at least a .290 AVG against both last season, so his numbers were not split driven either.

If we dig even deeper, yes it is possible, Schoop saw only 42% of pitches thrown against him in the strike zone. Pitchers want him to chase, and rightfully so, but Schoop knows this too and cut his chase rate by 6% this season. That led directly to him making more contact, up to 74%, all serving as positive indicators.

Is Schoop going to win a batting title for the Orioles; no. But, he is not a .260 hitter either. The scary part about Schoop’s game is that these are subtle improvements that are paying huge dividends already, and he is still mashing in the process of developing.

Jonathan Schoop is one of the best-kept secrets in all of baseball, and looks to be the future face of the Orioles. The power is there and the plate approach is coming too. The O’s will still have a formidable lineup, he will play half his games in the bandbox that is Camden Yards, and he has already built a solid resume while developing.

Next: Rangers: Is Adrian Beltre a top-10 third baseman?

Jonathan Schoop should be a top-30 pick next season, and the next second basemen off the board after Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez.