FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Thursday October 19
Welcome to the Thursday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
The first full slate of NBA DFS brought with it some massive FanDuel scores as winning GPP lines were just under 400 points on the night in large part due to the soft pricing across FanDuel which had released this slate days in advance and allowed us to load up on obvious value plays with 2-3 studs as well! Damian Lillard came through with 52 FanDuel points as the chalk option at point guard while his chalk counterpart at PF, Giannis Antetokounmpo, dropped 61.1 FanDuel points. The best move I made on the night was moving up at Center for DeMarcus Cousins who was under 8% owned and dropped 60 FanDuel points against Memphis!
Over the first two NBA regular season slate it has taken 371 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournamenr in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first two NBA regular season slate it has taken 371 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Looking over this three game slate initially – there is some interesting Vegas data we should ground ourself with as I believe it will/should shape our roster build.
- Bulls/Raptors – 206 total with a 13 points spread
- Knicks/Thunder – 215 total with 12 point spread
- Lakers/Clippers – 220 total with 5 point spread
Why do I bring this up? The first thing that jumps off the page at me is the incredibly low total for Toronto/Chicago and the massive line which frankly is not all that surprising considering the Bulls line-up which in my opinion is the worst in the NBA. I simply see no way Jerian Grant – Justin Holiday – Paul Zipser – Robin Lopez and Nikola Mirotic‘s broken face are able to keep this game remotely close so I will fade the Raptors completely in what I expect to be a monster blowout!
Russell Westbrook ($11,800) is back in our DFS lives after a season in which the rule was – if Westbrook is on the slate – you simply play him. Fading Westbrook is the worst feeling in DFS and on a three game slate I simply see no reason to even entertain it. Yes, I understand the usage will likely dip with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the fold but the pricing has adjusted for that as he was routinely $13-$14k at his peak on FanDuel last year. I am not getting cute on a three game slate (that frankly is a two game slate to me) and I will have 100% exposure to the most explosive player on the slate.
Lonzo Ball ($6,800) will take the court for the first time in a regular season game for the Lakers in an offense that is expected to play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and although I feel his price is a tick too high, he is the clear #2 option at point guard on this slate. The interesting thing to note here is that Luke Walton has already said he would keep his young guys minutes in the mid to high 20’s which was exactly what he did to guys like D’Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram last year which capped their fantasy upside. On a short slate, I am more than willing to roll out the Lakers talented point guard but keep this note in mind as we move forward into the season as Ball could quickly become a player that we look to fade is the minutes remain capped and the price remains elevated.
Outside of Westbrook/Ball I simply do not see realistic pivot options as Kyle Lowry ($8,600) is a stay away for me in a blowout, Jerian Grant for $6,600 feels like a bad joke and the Clippers two-headed monster of Patrick Beverley ($5,400) and Milos Teodosic ($5,300) will likely eat into each other’s production. My recommendation is to lock in Westbrook and Ball tonight and simply move on!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Shooting Guard is actually the one position with the most depth/options in my opinion and a spot where if you are building multiple line-ups, you can mix and match with various options. DeMar Derozan ($8,800) is a stay away for me at this price and in a big time blowout but the mid-tier is actually quite interesting.
Justin Holiday ($6,500) is a pure volume shooter who we saw in the preseason would be the dominant offensive “force” for the Bulls as he led the team in usage with nearly a 27% rate and although I do like him, the price feels a bit tough to swallow even on a two game slate.
If we are going to prioritize Westbrook tonight in rosters then I think we need to get some Knicks correlation as if the Knicks can keep this game close, it will keep Mr. Triple Double on the court for longer and allow us to rack up even more fantasy points! Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500) led the starting unit in usage in the preseason (26%) and shot attempts (13.6) and considering the Knicks are now without Carmelo Anthony and his team high 31% usage from last season, the son of the Killer Crossover will be tasked with being one of the Knicks primary scoring options this season.
We have not yet talked about any specific Clippers players but keep in mind this team has the highest projected point total on the slate in the closest game of the night so I think stacking the Clippers tonight is a viable core option. Austin Rivers ($4,300) will step into the starting shooting guard role for the Clippers and if the preseason was any indication, he will be a big part of this post Chris Paul offense as he led the team in shot attempts with nearly 13 per game! As a starter last season, Rivers averaged 25 FanDuel points per game which would return 5.8x value at this price point and give you the kind of minutes safety/GPP upside we are looking for in GPP’s on a short slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards:
Small Forward has two intriguing top end options in Paul George ($8,600) and Danilo Gallinari ($6,800) who join new teams as the clear #2 scoring options behind some massive usage alpha dogs. Paying up for both of these guys could be an interesting contrarian strategy if you were looking to fade Westbrook/Griffin, but I think paying down a bit at the position is the ideal roster build.
Brandon Ingram ($5,800) is my top mid-range target on the slate as I look to build a mini game stack of the Lakers-Clippers in the closest/highest scoring game of the night. Ingram struggled with his efficiency to start last year but after the all-star break he upped his shooting percentage to 47.5 and averaged 13 points per game and kept that momentum in the pre-season shooting 50% from the floor in the final two dress rehearsals.
C.J. Miles ($4,000) is a very easy to understand DFS asset – he shoots – a lot. Miles is a volume scorer who will either start for Toronto at SF or come off the bench in a 6th man role but either way I expect him to be one of the primary offensive weapons for the Raptors. In my mind I would actually prefer he came off the bench so that he gets more second team usage when Lowry/DeRozan are off the floor and evidenced by his 10+ shot attempts per game in the preseason, he is not afraid to chuck! The real value here is that of those 10 shots, 8 of them per game where from behind the arc so if Miles is able to knock down three’s, he becomes a high upside GPP play with he ability to crush value at this bargain price points!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
If Russell Westbrook is priority number 1 tonight then Blake Griffin ($9,500) should be 1A when building your rosters on this slate. With Chris Paul now in Houston, Griffin is going to dominate the usage as he had over a 30% usage rate last season with CP3 off the floor and will take on a Lakers team he averaged just under 40 FanDuel points per game against last season. In a Clippers-Lakers game stack, Griffin is priority number 1 and I will ignore ownership and simply play the best PF on the slate!
The second power forward spot is where things get a but more interesting – especially if looking at the Lakers – who have somewhat of a three-headed monster with Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and Kyle Kuzma all vying for time. Kyle Kuzma ($4,800) is a name that those who played preseason DFS will know and love as he led the Lakers in minutes per game and shot attempts per contest as he averaged 17 points per game and 4 rebounds in just under 28 minutes a night. The Lakers PF’s are a volatile GPP target but Kuzma has the price point and per minute fantasy production that could be a true difference maker on this short slate.
Brook Lopez ($7,400) is the new starting big man for the Lake Show and if we know anything about Bro-Lo from his time in Brooklyn, it is that he is a usage monster with the ability to put up monster outings as a result of his well-rounded inside-outside game. Lopez led the Lakers in usage in the preseason (not shocking) and if we look back to last year as a member of the Nets, he dropped 48 FanDuel points against the Clippers in his only outing against them.
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Russell Westbrook ($11,800)
PG: Lonzo Ball ($6,800)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500)
SG: Austin Rivers ($4,300)
SF: Brandon Ingram ($5,800)
SF: C.J. Miles ($4,000)
PF: Blake Griffin ($9,500)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($4,800)
C: Brook Lopez ($7,400)
Slate Overview: On a short slate like this I would recommend taking a stand and for me, an all-out fade of the Raptors/Bulls (outside of Miles) feels like the best course of action for upside. The Clippers-Lakers game has the highest total and the closest spread so I would look to game stack that contest while building around a 1-2 bunch of Russell Westbrook and Blake Griffin. Good luck tonight!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!