Angels: Andrelton Simmons’ power for real or a mirage?

Andrelton Simmons was one of the pleasant surprises this season for the Angels. But, can fantasy owners trust him heading into 2018?

The Angels were surprisingly competitive this season, barely missing the playoffs, while having to go without Mike Trout for a chunk of the season. One of the key reasons why they were able to hang in the playoff chase all season, was the offensive rebound from Andrelton Simmons.

But, can fantasy owners trust him heading into 2018?

Simmons is no stranger to the casual MLB fan. His defensive wizardry is the stuff of lore and he is undoubtedly incredible with a glove. Yet, his offense is a mystery.

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During his rookie season with the Braves, Simmons made his presence felt as he posted a .248/17 HR/59 RBI line in 2013. After that season though, things went downhill. He never posted more than seven homers over the next three years, and his AVG peaked at .281. There was no power in his game at all, and his OPS cratered below .700, with no signs of improving.

He was well off the fantasy radar as it seemed as though he brought nothing to the table with a bat. But, that changed this season as Simmons put together his best all-around season of his career.

He ended the season with a .278/14 HR/69 RBI/.752 OPS/19 SB/19 SB line over 156 games for the Angels. Simmons looked like a new guy at the plate, showing the ability to split gaps, and serve as a continual threat at the plate.

He posted a career-best 164 hits, and Mike Scioscia has never been shy about being aggressive on the base paths, so it is not a complete surprise that he posted 19 steals. Since coming to LA, his stolen base attempts have increased, and that should not stop next season.

In terms of his AVG, Simmons has steadily made improvements, posting no lower than a .265 clip. He should settle right in around the .265-.280 mark next season. He does not strike out more than 10% of the time and makes a ton of contact, so at worst fantasy owners are looking at a decent AVG and solid SB producer in 2018.

The key to his value will be if the power can stay. Fantasy owners have been suckered in before, but this time should be different.

The biggest sign of optimism moving forward is that he is back to pulling the ball more. Prior to his 14 HR output, Simmons admitted that while in Atlanta his swing was tweaked so that he would try to spray the ball the other way more.

That may help his AVG, but is counterproductive for the most part to his power numbers. When Simmons notched 17 HR in 2013, he pulled the ball at a 47% rate while maintaining 50%+ Med and 25%+ Hard contact rates.

In 2017, he finally got back to pulling the ball again, posting a 45% Pull rate while still maintaining the same levels of solid contact. The two clearly go hand in hand, and it is no surprise that the HR rose.

The curious thing about Simmons’ batted ball profile, is that he has always maintained decent contact numbers. His career LD rate is 19%, FB rate is 30%, Med contact is 54% and, Hard contact is 26%. The one area that holds him back is his 50% GB rate, which caps his HR numbers around 20.

Simmons will not be a player that fantasy owners have to fight each other to own next season. Some will write him off and not want to fall for his power spike again, but the astute owners will notice that his change in approach over the last two seasons with the Angels has him back to being a power source.

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Those 38 doubles are no fluke, and it is not out of the realm of possibility to think that a handful of those go out of the yard next season, turning him into one of the quietest possible .270/20 HR/20 SB threats in 2018.

Believe in Simmons.