FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Saturday October 21

Welcome to the Saturday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Historically we have needed roughly 6x value to take down GPP’s on FanDuel but with the new scoring, we are seeing some massive jumps in scoring as evidenced by Friday Night’s contests where the winning scores totaled over 400 FanDuel points and the winning Clutch Shot ($4) team scored 416.4 FD points which is roughly 7x value!

Over the first four NBA regular season slate it has taken 374.6 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays:

Looking over the Saturday slate there are a few over-arching themes that jump out at me that will drive my roster approach. First off, the top four projected game totals also have double-digit spreads which means we have legit blowout risk in all the top spots. Secondly, we have a myriad of injury news from last night’s games that are not properly reflected in tonight’s pricing which gives us the opportunity to take advantage of some elite value plays!

The big injury news that came down after lock last night was that Dennis Smith Jr. would be out with a knee injury and would not travel with the team to Houston tonight. That meant that J.J Barea ($3,900) would start for the Mavericks at PG and he responded with 30.2 FanDuel points (over 7x value) over 27 minutes with 9 points and 10 assists. Barea has been exceptionally strong over his first time games, exceeding 6x value in both contests and with a starting role tonight he becomes an elite punt play in all formats.

The injury news that sunk my lineups last night was Elfrid Payton leaving the Magic’s contest in the first half but it could open up some elite value for us tonight! D.J. Augustin ($3,000) was the primary point guard once Elf went down and he responded with 20.9 FanDuel points over 23 minutes of action which at this bare minimum price point would return 7x value.

We certainly have some big dollar point guards we can spend up on tonight including Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry but with elite punt plays under $4k in likely starting roles, I like the idea of double punting PG and using that salary elsewhere.

If you want to go a different route at point guard, the one player who caught my eye is Goran Dragic ($7,000) who will man the point for a Miami Heat team projected to play at the fastest pace tonight against Indiana and will be the focal point of the offense with Hassan Whiteside sidelined. Last year with the big fella out, Dragic saw a 1.5% usage bump and put up a 30% usage rate with 1.13 fantasy points per minute which makes him an intriguing GPP pivot in the mid-range.

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:

One of the reasons I am looking to go the value route at point guard is that there are a handful of stars in elite spots I am looking to attack. With the news that Chris Paul will be out for 2-4 weeks, we get last season’s James Harden ($11,000) back in our lives as the clear usage monster who will now be tasked with running the point for the Rockets. There is simply too much value on this slate to not prioritize The Beard tonight with no CP3 and he will be the first superstar in every single line-up I make tonight.

With CP3 off the court everyone will think to lock in James Harden but is Eric Gordon ($6,500) actually the one who gets the biggest boost. Gordon stepped into the starting SG role last game against the Kings when Harden shifted over to PG and he responded with a monster game putting up a team leading 23 shot attempts and 13 three-point shots. Read that again – on a team with James Harden, it was Eric Gordon who led the team in shot attempts!

With Paul off the court, Gordon and Harden will dominate the usage for Houston and I think stacking both Houston guards at your shooting guard positions on FanDuel is a viable strategy.

If you are looking for value plays there are two names that let us down on opening night that I think are worth revisiting. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,900) put up a 7.7 FanDuel point dud on opening night, largely limited by foul trouble early on, but the fact he still logged 30 minutes and had double-digit shot attempts gives me hope he can rebound as the clear #2 scoring option on the Knicks. Austin Rivers ($4,000) was expected to start the season at SG but was surprisingly brought off the bench but tonight against the Suns could be the prefect time to go back to the well! Rivers was the clear top dog on the Clippers second unit, shooting eleven times (only making one shot) so if Rivers can get his shot to fall tonight he could deliver exceptional value in a pace up game against the Suns.

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:

In Friday’s Picks and Pivots I recommended locking in Joe Ingles ($4,500) as an elite value play who would largely be over-looked and not to pat myself on the back (but get ready for it) – he delivered 27 FanDuel points at less than 5% ownership in GPP’s. Through two games this season, Ingles has played 33 minutes a game and racked up 27.1 and 32 FanDuel points good for 6x and 7x value respectively. Ingles is never going to be a sexy DFS name, I mean look at the guy – he looks like someone you would find at a YMCA pick-up game lacing up some white New Balances after emerging from his reasonably priced min-van – but the dude can ball and anytime we can get 6-7x value at less than 5% ownership, I will gladly hit the lock button and move on. Yes, I am locking in Joe Ingles – don’t at me.

You want more DFS value? Well then let’s fire up DFS himself! Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,000) is minimum priced and should see another game with significant minutes for an undermanned Mavericks squad tonight. DFS played 21 minutes off the bench last night for Dallas and delivers 17.9 FD points which may not seem like an overwhelming number but gives us another punt play putting up 6x value! With Dallas on the tail end of a back to back – DFS could see even more run due to the injuries and the “experience” of Dirk Nowitzki so using him as a minimum priced punt play will open up a ton of different avenues for you across the rest of your roster!

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Play:

To this point in the article I have peppered you with value plays and you may be wondering, Brian, you realize you can play people over $4k right? Why yes, I am aware of that fact and I believe me reader – there is a reason I have been saving my fake FanDuel salary until I got to my front-court.

If James Harden is lock button number 1 tonight then Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) needs to be lock button 1A (all due respect to Joe Ingles). The raw talent, the absence of Jabari Parker and the new FanDuel scoring putting emphasis on steals and blocks has put the Greek Freak in early season must play territory as he has logged 61 and 65.6 FanDuel points over his first two games. The fact that Giannis is the most expensive player on the slate and STILL toying with 6x value is absurd with so much value on the board, he is an easy fit across the board tonight.

With ample salary still to spend, I think paying up for Blake Griffin ($9,800) at the second PF spot is a great way to build your rosters tonight in a spot he should absolutely crush against the Suns tonight. We saw on opening night that without Chris Paul the offense for the Clippers would run through Griffin and he responded with 50 FanDuel points on the back of 29-12. The Suns simply have no answers in the front-court and I expect the big men on the Clippers to dominate this game and Vegas agrees as they have installed them as the top projected scoring team on the night.

Although I do love DeAndre Jordan tonight, salary constrictions have me pivoting to a slightly lower price point with Clint Capela ($6,900) as part of a Rockets mini-stack. Capela disappointed in the season opener but bounced back in a big way with Harden back in the point last game with 53.9 FanDuel points on the back of 22 points and 17 rebounds.

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.

More from FanSided

PG: J.J Barea ($3,900)

PG: D.J. Augustin ($3,000)

SG: James Harden ($11,000)

SG: Eric Gordon ($6,500)

SF: Joe Ingles ($4,500)

SF: Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,000)

PF: GIannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)

PF: Blake Griffin ($9,800)

C: Clint Capela ($6,900)

Slate Overview: Stars and Scrubs is the name of this slate for me and I love being able to lay out a path to a roster build that centers around Harden-Giannis-Blake. Stepping back and looking at this build, we have arguably the top 3 plays on the slate (top 4 with Westbrook in play) and are using our value spots to look in punt play starters (Barea, Ingles, Augustin) that have clear paths to crushing 6-7x value. Keep an eye on the news as always leading up to lock as more value can open up and get your weekend started off with some FanDuel NBA GPP wins!

Next: FanDuel NFL Picks and Plays for Week 7

Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!