Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. a possible bounceback candidate in 2018?

By Brad Kelly | Oct 23, 2017

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 21: Lance McCullers Jr. /

Lance McCullers Jr. has been dominant in the postseason for the Astros. The regular season, however, was the tale of two halves, but could he be a bounce-back candidate in 2018?

The Houston Astros are headed to the World Series after a thrilling ALCS series versus the Yankees. There were multiple key contributors that help seal a series win, but one of the more overlooked performances was that from Lance McCullers Jr, out of the bullpen. He finished the shutout, blanking the Yankees over four innings while striking out six batters, continuing his dominant postseason.

Could this be a sign of things to come from McCullers in 2018?

Fantasy owners can break down McCullers’ season into three parts. His All-Star first half, 3.05 ERA/106 K over 16 starts. Hs abysmal second half, 8.23 ERA/26 K over six starts, and now his tremendous postseason, 0.90 ERA/9 K over 10 innings of work.

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Coming into 2017, he was a popular breakout target after his 3.22 ERA/106 K line over 14 starts in 2016, combined with his 3.22 ERA over 22 starts in 2015. He had long been lauded in the Astros’ system as having ace potential, and he certainly had the stuff to boot.

This season though, slowed some of those expectations.

In the first half, he was electric. His fastball was still sitting in the mid-90s, and more importantly, he was locating it. But, his bread and butter is still his filthy curveball. Amazingly, he threw 24 straight curveballs to close out the Yankees, and even though they had to know it was coming, it was unhittable.

He posted 10 K/9 over his first 14 starts and looked poised to anchor the staff heading into the postseason. Yet, the injury bug torpedoed any and all hope of that. The most problematic ailment was a back issue that flared up in early June and would cost him two weeks that month, but would also creep back up again at the end of July, and cost him all of Aug.

To make it even worse, he would battle arm fatigue in Sep, which would cost him more time and clouded his status heading into Oct.

If fantasy owners presume that McCullers, when fully healthy, was during the first half and now in the postseason, he once again should be a top-20 SP target in drafts next season.

But, fantasy owners have to take into account what happened over the second half. Digging deeper into his second half peripherals, he did not lose velocity, but he was making more mistakes in the zone with his fastball. Predictably, he was getting pounded for those mistakes.

He was also throwing more pitches in the strike zone as a whole and his command was just not there. Over the second half, batters made contact on 94% of his pitches in the zone. He was not making batters miss and they were jumping all over him.

He throws his curveball nearly 50% of the time, which prompts the same questions that heavy slider usages have; does the continued use of breaking balls mean more injury risk?

The simple answer is, yes.

He only made 50 starts before debuting a major leaguer, so it is not as though he has been stretched out and allowed to build up innings on his arm. But, the Astros have babied him as well, watching his innings and pitch limits, so even though he is only 23-years-old, there are still plenty of bullets left.

Fantasy owners will see his 4.25 ERA from this season, and not be as bullish as they were coming into 2017. However, McCullers was on a role over the first half when he was healthy and rearing to go, just as he is again this postseason. The risk will always be there thanks to his curve usage, but the upside is too much to pass up.

Next: Phillies:Aaron Altherr a sleeper OF in 2018?

He was on pace to surpass 200+ K while posting a sub 3.50 ERA. His curveball generated over a 30% Whiff rate, and his changeup is steadily improving. He is going to be one of the best fantasy values next season. Do not overlook him.

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