FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Monday October 23
Welcome to the Monday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s three game slate kept our early season trend of high scoring as the winning entry in the $4 Clutch Shot racked up 364 FanDuel points which was good for 6x value even on a short slate. The Lonzo Ball/Jrue Holiday PG stack worked and Anthony Davis delivered with another 60+ FanDuel point outing but it was some under the radar plays which made the biggest difference. Steven Adams at 5% ownership dropped 17 points, 13 rebounds and 44 FanDuel points against Minnesota and Andrew Wiggins put up 46.4 FanDuel points against the tough wind defense of Andre Roberson/Paul George!
Over the first six NBA regular season slates it has taken 374.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first six NBA regular season slates it has taken 374.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Looking over this eight game slate there is one game that stands out to me from a GPP perspective as the Wizards and Nuggets have the highest game total at 222.5 (8 points higher than Detroit/Philly) and with a 3 point spread there is significant game stack appeal here.
John Wall ($10,300) is priced up for this spot but his early season returns in the Washington offense have been up to par as his 30.1% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy point per minute output makes this an investment worth making. The Wizards are playing at one of the fastest paces in the league this year and in a game that is projected to be close and high-scoring I think Wall makes for an elite core play especially considering the value on the slate that makes it easy to fit him in.
With Dennis Schroder being carried off the court in Sunday’s game against Brooklyn in what the Hawks are now calling a deep bone bruise, we get the ability to roster a starting point guard at minimum price in Malcolm Delaney ($3,100). Schroder dominates the usage in this up-temp offense so there is going to be big shoes to fill tonight and at this price point I find it hard to see a scenario where Delaney does not crush value with guaranteed minutes. The high-low PG pairing of Wall/Delaney is a great starting point on this slate for both cash games and GPP’s!
The one other player I have a ton of GPP interest in tonight is Eric Bledsoe ($7,200) and this has nothing to do with metrics/match-up and it is simply all about narrative. With the Suns firing head coach Earl Watson on Sunday and Eric Bledsoe tweeting out “I Don’t Wanna Be Here,” this has the makings of one of those monster “show me” games that you simply need to have some tournament exposure to!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
One of the things I love to do in NBA DFS is to utilize popular value plays a few days after the luster has worn off as players tend to flock towards the shiny new toy (ie. Malcolm Delaney tonight) and ignore yesterday’s hot value plays!
At the beginning of this season, Jeremy Lamb ($5,500) was a player everyone was pumped to roster as with Nicolas Batum out, a massive amount of usage would flow towards Kemba Walker and Lamb. Last season, Lamb averaged 30 FanDuel points per game as a starter and so far this season has put up 24 and 25 FanDuel points in his first two outings. The DFS output has been mediocre which will likely keep people off him tonight and the fact that the Hornets have the lowest implied team total means this is not a team people are going to be in a rush to play which is exactly why I like Lamb tonight in GPP’s.
The reality is, no player on the Hornets has attempted more shots than Lamb at 13.5 per game so the usage is clearly there and any time I can roster the clear top offensive option on a team for a mid-range price like this, I simply have to take notice.
The interesting thing about the Hornets so far this season is they seem to be running a pretty tight rotation of 8-9 players per night especially now with Cody Zeller out with an injury. Dwayne Bacon ($3,600) continues to start for the Hornets as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist remains out which opens up another early season value play that many have likely already forgotten about!
Although Milwaukee has some solid defenders at the PG and PF position, their wing defense is a spot we can attack and we have seen mid-level players like Evan Turner, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and even Kyle Korver put up 20-25 FanDuel points in each game so far against Milwaukee this season. There is a certain player on Milwaukee I plan on having a lot of exposure to tonight so building a correlation play with the Hornets in the hope this game stays close is an intriguing roster build strategy tonight.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Outside of John Wall, I think the best place to get Wizards exposure tonight is with Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,300) who should continue to start for the WIzards with Markieff Morris and Jason Smith out with injury. Oubre has played 32+ minutes in each of the first two games for Washington racking up 7+ rebounds and 2 steals in each game and he flashed his DFS upside against Philadelphia when he dropped 38.6 FanDuel points. In a high-scoring fast paced game like this, I want to get as much exposure as I can to the Wizards and Oubre is an easy plug and play for me at a weak SF position.
Outside of Oubre, Small Forward is a position I will likely look to find value at and C.J. Miles ($3,600) continues to be a great bargain option for Toronto especially with the Raptors being down Jonas Valancunas tonight. Miles has already shown his GPP volatility this year putting up 28 FD points in his first game and only 9 in his last game but as long as his shot volume on the second unit remains high, he has the ability to rack up points for an undermanned Raptors team that may need to play smaller tonight with the absence of their center.
The one mid-range play I have my eye on tonight is Josh Richardson ($5,800) who should continue to log heavy minutes (34+ in each of the first two games) and tonight the Heat will likely be without Hassan Whiteside again. Richardson’s ability to rack up stats across the board makes him an elite DFS play and against one of the fastest pace teams in the league (Hawks) he could flourish in this game environment tonight.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200): Last season Russell Westbrook was the kind of player where you simply ignored priced and did whatever you could to fit him in on every slate and this season The Greek Freak is approaching that same must play territory with between 61 and 66 FanDuel points in each of his first three games. The beauty of getting early day value like Malcolm Delaney is that it allows us to start roster builds with Giannis at the core and that duo will likely be the first two names I insert into every single roster tonight.
We mentioned the Wizards/Nuggets game as a prime game stack spot tonight but have yet to mention a Denver player – well my friends, let me present to you Paul Millsap ($7,800) and Nikola Jokic ($8,600). The Joker has really underwhelmed so far this season, looking to be more of an offensive facilitator than the focal point of the offense and there was no better illustration of that than his last game with only THREE shot attempts. I love attacking spots like this where Jokic has let down DFS players in the first two games of the season and we not only get a reduced price point but also lower than deserved ownership.
Even with the lower point totals, Jokic has put up double-digit rebounds and 7.5 assists per game so far this year and with an undersized Wizards team opposing him tonight, I simply see no way that Jokic and Millsap do not crush value at these price points. Power Forward/Center combinations like Millsap/Jokic are rare but we saw the Wizards give up 37 and 42 FD points to the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid combination in their season opener so I love the idea of attacking a small Wizards interior tonight with the Nuggets front court duo!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: John Wall ($10,300)
PG: Malcolm Delaney ($3,100)
SG: Jeremy Lamb ($5,500)
SG: Dwayne Bacon ($3,600)
SF: Jelly Oubre Jr. ($5,300)
SF: C.J. Miles ($3,600)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200)
PF: Paul Millsap ($7,800)
C: Nikola Jokic ($8,600)
Slate Overview: Building a core around the Nuggets/Wizards game as the highest scoring game on the slate feels like the best core to build on this slate as the price points are reasonable enough and the upside is enormous. Locking in the best player in DFS right now (Giannis) and the best value of the night (Delaney) gives you a core roster build you can than pivot off of and adjust as needed!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!