FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday October 25
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores even with some crazy injury news to the slates biggest stars still managed to eclipse the 350 FanDuel point mark! Aaron Gordon (59.8) was the most common name found among winning GPP line-ups as he went absolutely bonkers against the Nets at roughly 10% ownership and we saw the Pacers/Minnesota game shoot-out with 237 points pushing guys like Darren Collison to grab a 50 spot on the night!
Over the first eight NBA regular season slates it has taken 370.8 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first eight NBA regular season slates it has taken 370.8 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.2x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Well, last night was fun wasn’t it? Wednesday’s slate was the first one this season where we got two of the most tiliting NBA DFS occurrences in the same night as Jimmy Butler was scratched due to illness after lock (cue the we need better late swap contests argument) and Anthony Davis left the game after only a few minutes with an injury and did not return. I made a comment on my Twitter feed roughly 20 minutes before lock that tonight felt like a night where everyone goes all-in on AD and he leaves 5 minutes in with an injury. Many of you acted liked I was some sort of Nostradamus but really I have just played DFS enough to know that AD pulls that 5 times per year and crushes the slate in the process so it was just an educated guess.
Hopefully you avoided some of the landmines last night because we had a ton – including Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Joe Ingles – who were at the core of my roster build and lit it up for a combined 25 points. On a night where I successfully faded Anthony Davis and avoided the Jimmy Butler scratch, I still couldn’t cash as a result of the “effort” of these fine young men.
If you are like me then you are ready to move on to tonight and we have a ten game slate with a ton of studs, some early value plays and a mid-tier that is screaming to play a more balanced line-up tonight!
Kemba Walker ($8,100) and the Hornets get a home match-up against the Nuggets and for those of you new to NBA DFS, the Kemba home/road split is one of the most fundamental pieces of information you need when attacking the Hornets. Over the last two seasons, Walker averaged over 2 FD points more at home than on the road (a 6% increase in production) and with no Nicolas Batum, Walker is the clear offensive leader of this Charlotte squad. Although it is a limited sample size, we have already seen this season Walker average 29.8 FanDuel points per game on the road while dropping a 44 FD point outing in his only home start.
Kyle Lowry ($7,100) at this price point against the Golden State Warriors is one of those mid-range plays that is screaming at you to build a more balanced roster tonight. In two games last season against the Warriors, Lowry put up 40 and 51 FanDuel points which would put him in the range of 5.6-7x value at this price point. Game log watchers will see that Lowry has yet to reach 30 FanDuel points in any game this season and move away but that price drop combined with the uptick in pace here make this a spot I simply cannot ignore tonight! If you want to pivot off Kemba, moving up to Stephen Curry ($9,400) and game stacking the point guards here is an intriguing GPP strategy!
It will be interesting to see how the DFS community attacks the point guard spot as the two highest priced plays (Russell Westbrook and John Wall) have yet to return 5x value at their price points and seemingly every night the winning GPP rosters utilize a more value centric/mid-tier PG approach. Could we start to see the ownership follow that trend or will people force the big dollar PG’s into their line-up tonight?
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
With Chris Paul on the shelf this season, it is no surprise that a certain Rockets SG leads the team in usage and he is going to be a priority play for me tonight. Oh did you think I meant James Harden ($11,600)? If you look at the usage without Chris Paul on the floor this season, it is actually Eric Gordon ($6,700) who leads the Rockets in usage at 36.1% while putting up just under a fantasy point per minute of production.
With Trevor Ariza already ruled out tonight and defensive specialist Luc Mbah a Moute named his replacement, the offensive burden for Harden/Gordon will be even larger tonight, if that is even possible. So far this season – here are the shot attempts for Eric Gordon – 11, 16, 20, 23 including two games with double-digit three-point shot attempts. I expect the masses to force James Harden into their line-ups tonight but it is Eric Gordon at a fraction of the price who will be in my line-ups!
Jeremy Lamb ($5,600): Speaking of high usage shooting guards in the mid-range, Lamb continues to hoist up shots in the absence of Nicolas Batum and has now played back to back games with 17 shot attempts while logging 36 minutes a contest. The efficiency has not been there for Lamb as he is only shooting 36% which is 10% below his mark the last two seasons which is likely a result of his offensive role expanding. However the sheer volume of shot attempts makes this a great mid-tier play in a game with a solid 212 total and close 2 point Vegas spread!
Devin Booker ($7,300) will continue to be one of the best SG plays in DFS with Eric Bledsoe currently voted off the island and we saw in the last game that Booker dominated the usage for Phoenix with a 31% usage rate while putting up 1.2 fantasy points per minute. Although the match-up with Utah is less than ideal, Vegas has put this game at only a 6 point spread which gives me some additional comfort in this game staying close and Booker getting all the run he can handle.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Paul George ($8,700): Revenge Game Narrative! PG13 gets his first game against his old squad tonight as the Thunder take on the Pacers in OKC! George has been fantastic so far this season for the Thunder, logging between 40-43 FanDuel points in each of his first three games which gives him a solid 5x floor at this price point. With all the focus on the drop in usage for Russell Westbrook this season (down to 22.6%), it is interesting to note that Paul George has the highest usage (30.7%) when the starting unit is all on the floor together. George is another great example on this slate of solid mid-tier plays with clear 40-50 FanDuel point production and I expect the Thunder will do everything they can to feature him against his old squad tonight!
With Jimmy Butler scratched last night with an upper respiratory infection it was Shabazz Muhammed ($3,000) who stepped into the starting line-up for Minnesota and logged 31 minutes and 21 FanDuel points which would deliver 7x value at this minimum price point which makes him an elite punt play tonight assuming Butler is out tonight.
If you are looking to stay in the mid-range at Small Forward, Kelly Oubre ($5,400) will get another start tonight for the Wizards who have the highest implied team total on the slate. Oubre has played between 32 and 37 minutes in each of the first three games for the Wizards and allows you the ability to get exposure to an elite offensive spot tonight at a reasonable price point.
One additional note – The Golden State/Toronto ga,me opened with a 225 game total and it is worth noting these teams combined for 248 and 232 points in their two meetings last season which makes this an intriguing game stack as the starters get tons of run and the usage is really concentrated. Last season Kevin Durant ($10,100) put up 56.9 and 47.8 FanDuel points against the Raptors so building a game stack off a Lowry/Curry back-court could be a great GPP late night strategy!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Draymond Green ($7,800) continues to sit at a price point on FanDuel that has massive profit potential considering his ability to rack up fantasy points across the board. Draymond will get to attack an undersized Raptors front-court tonight that will be without Jonas Valancunas in a game that could go small with Green-Ibaka logging most of the minutes in a small-ball game flow.
Power Forward is a great spot to attack some value tonight as we can go back to the well with Domanatas Sabonis ($4,800) who could log another start with Myles Turner potentially out in his own revenge spot against OKC! Sabonis has back to back double-doubles, putting up 39.4 and 32.7 FanDuel points which has been delivering 7x value and if he gets another start tonight it is simply crazy not to consider him again at this price point.
Marquese Chriss ($4,300) may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the changes in Phoenix as he entered the starting line-up last game and dropped 34.7 FanDuel points which would return 8x value at tonight’s slightly increase price point. The match-up with Utah is obviously a tough one but Chriss had a 23% usage rate last game and any time we can get starters at price points this low, it allows us the ability to spend up at other key positions.
Center is loaded tonight and there are two plays that jump out to me as elite plays with Nikola Jokic ($8,700) and Rudy Gobert ($8,500). Jokic finally had the game we were all expecting last time out against Washington with 43.3 FanDuel points while dominating the usage at 33% for the Nuggets. Remember guys – this is a player that was routinely priced over $10 last season so take advantage of the discount now while we can especially tonight against a Hornets defense that is ranked 27th in DvP to opposing Centers!
As you can tell, I am looking to get some Suns exposure tonight so correlating that with Rudy Gobert on the other side is a great tournament tactic as I simply see no way that Gobert does not dominate the interior defense of the Suns tonight. Gobert has been a steady FD point producer with between 31-37 FanDuel points in each of his last three outings and steps into a perfect match-up against a Suns team that should allow him to rack up boards at will tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Kemba Walker ($8,100)
PG: Kyle Lowry ($7,100)
SG: Eric Gordon ($6,700)
SG: Jeremy Lamb ($5,600)
SF: Paul George ($8,700)
SF: Shabazz Muhammed ($3,000)
PF: Draymond Green ($7,800)
PF: Marquese Chriss ($4,300)
C: Nikola Jokic ($8,700)
Slate Overview: Tonight’s slate is interesting as I think going more balanced is the right approach but we also have some elite value plays at PF and SF (potentially) that allow you to pay up in a few spots. As always, keep an eye on the news – do not let last night’s late scratches get you down – it will happen a handful of times per season and you simply need to embrace tha variance. Good luck tonight all! No Whammies!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!