FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Thursday October 26
Welcome to the Thursday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning GPP line-up in the clutch shot put up 404.3 FanDuel points utilizing a stars/scrubs approach that included Russell Westbrook (66), James Harden (54) and LeBron James (64.5)! With some low owned punt plays that crushed value like Jeff Green (38.7) and T.J. McConnell (41), this was the definition of a GPP dart throw and it paid off in a very big way!
Over the first nine NBA regular season slates it has taken 374.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.24x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first nine NBA regular season slates it has taken 374.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.24x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays:
Tonight we have a short five game slate and when you consider one of those games is Dallas/Memphis, we are really left with four games to target in DFS with some clear over-arching themes. Before I get into the plays, it is important to understand the context of this slate in my opinion as there are two high-end players (who happen to be the two most expensive plays) that I want in my lineups which means I am going to need value elsewhere.
Jrue Holiday ($7,300) and the Pelicans will take the court tonight against the Sacramento Kings in the DeMarcus Cousins revenge game and let me give you a hint – I plan on locking in Boogie tonight. The reason I am looking to pair Boogie with his point guard has nothing to do with revenge narratives and everything to do with the fact that Anthony Davis is questionable for this game with swelling in his knee and with someone as frail as The Brow, I fully expect he gets the night off!
What does that mean for the Pelicans? With Anthony Davis off the floor, Holiday is elevated to the clear #2 option where he has been a fantasy point per minute producer over the last two season with Brow off the court. Holiday has put up 34 and 37 FanDuel points in his last two outings so this price seem right in line with 5x value but his combination of locked in minutes and increased usage makes him a top play at a reasonable price point on this slate.
The mid-range at point guard might be the best place to stay today if you want to pay up at other positions as we have a variety of solid options to roster.
Patrick Beverley ($6,300) is averaging 35 FanDuel points per game over his last two contests, the same output as the aforementioned Holiday for $1,000 cheaper which would return 5.5x value tonight against Portland. What I love about the Clippers is the tight rotation/minutes security for the starting five as we saw last game without Milos Teodosic the Clippers starting unit all played 35 minutes or more while no bench player logged more than 19 minutes!
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,000) missed the last game for Milwaukee but has been a steady 30+ minute starter for the Bucks who has the best pure match-up on the slate facing off against Kyrie Irving who has the worst defensive real plus/minus of any PG on the slate!
Malcolm Delaney ($4,800) will once again start at PG for Atlanta and although he logged 33 minutes, was not able to crack the 20 FanDuel point mark as his usage rate of 18% leaves a lot to be desired at this inflated price point. On a short slate everyone is in play but this is not a play that screams upside.
Shane Larkin ($3,200): If you are looking for punt plays tonight (and if you are going Stars/Scrubs you will need some dart throws), then keep an eye on the Celtics injury news as another game without Marcus Smart could lead to continued usage off the bench for Shane Larkin. In his last two games, Larking has played 19 minutes per contest with 17 FanDuel points in each outing which would return 5.3x value at this price point.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
Kent Bazemore ($5,700) is not a player I utilize often but on a Hawks team that has seen Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. leave and is now down their clear #1 option in Dennis Schroder, Baze becomes a great mid-range SG option. So far this season with Schroder off the court, Bazemore leads the Hawks in usage with a 27.6% mark while racking up 1.1 fantasy points per minute. In the last game with Schroder out, Bazemore logged 30 minutes, shooting the ball 17 times and putting up 35.8 FanDuel points which would return 6.3x value at this price point!
As I mentioned with Patrick Beverley, the Clippers are running a tight rotation with their starting unit and the injury to Milos Teodosic has opened the door for Austin Rivers ($4,900) to re-enter the starting line-up. Rivers launched 13 shot attempts in his first game as a starter and racked up 21 FanDuel points and tonight will take on C.J McCollum and the Blazers who has the second worst defensive rating of any SG on the slate!
The one player to keep an eye on tonight is Kris Dunn ($4,500) who could return for the Bulls and is expected to step into the starting line-up once he is healthy. Last season as a starter, Dunn averaged 25 FanDuel points per game which would return 5.5x value at this price point with the upside for more on this depleted Bulls roster!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400): I made this comment the last slate Giannis was on and I believe it still stands – he reminds me so much of last year’s Russell Westbrook in that he is a usage dominant multi-category monster who you simply need to force into your line-ups on each and every slate. The Greek Freak is averaging 37 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals/blocks per game and has not yet put up a FanDuel score under 60 points. As long as I can build a roster around him I am comfortable with (and I think we can easily tonight) then I will just keep hitting the lock button the Bucks star and move on with my day!
Similar to the story with Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince ($5,600) becomes one of the top usage plays on Atlanta with Dennis Schroder off the floor as he is putting up a 26% usage rate while putting up 0.8 fantasy points per minute. Prince racked up 33 FanDuel points in his last outing wich would return 5.9x value at this price point which frankly may represent his ceiling so be careful forcing Prince into your lineups tonight and instead use him as a solid “last man in” to balance out your roster.
If you want upside at SF then simply go ahead and lock in Jaylen Brown ($6,300) who continues to impress me each and every time I watch him take the court. Brown is an elite scoring threat who has put up 33+ FanDuel points in two of his first four games this season but keep an eye on the news today as if he is forced to match-up with Giannis, this could be a spot to let others take the risk!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Let’s not bury the lead here people – DeMarcus Cousins ($11,800) is THE play tonight going back to Sacramento for the first time as a member of the Pelicans. Forget the narrative street for a moment and focus on the fact that Anthony Davis is likely to miss this game and Boogie becomes a near must play. With Davis off the floor this season, Boogie has a massive 41% usage rate while putting up 1.76 fantasy points per minute which would put him in line to eclipse the 60 FanDuel point mark for the fourth time in five games this season!
Power Forward is the spot I am most likely to punt at tonight with the first player on my list as Dwight Powel ($3,100) who has returned 5x value in two of his last three games and with Dallas on the tail end of a back to back, we know guys like Dirk Nowitzki are always at risk of sitting which would mean additional run for Powell in the Dallas front court!
Ed Davis ($4,200) is not a name that may jump off the page to you but the Portland bench big man (who will have his hands full with Boogie tonight) has been a fantasy point per minute monster so far this season. Davis is averaging 22.7 FD points this season (5.4x value) all while playing less than 20 minutes per game in three of his four contests this year!
Keep an eye on the status of the Hawks front court as Ersan Illyasova ($4,700) would make a nice PF GPP play if he starts but if he sits again you can fire up John Collins ($5,700) who has put up back to back 30+ FanDuel points games!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Patrick Beverley ($6,000)
PG: Malcolm Delaney ($4,800)
SG: Austin Rivers ($4,900)
SG: Kent Bazemore ($5,700)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400)
SF: Jaylen Brown ($6,300)
PF: Ersan Illyasova ($4,700)
PF: Dwight Powell ($3,100)
C: DeMarcus Cousins ($11,800)
Slate Overview: This short Thursday night slate (which locks at 8PM EST by the way) is very simple – you lock in Giannis and Boogie and work on the rest of your roster. Although there are no standout values, the reality is you have over $5,100 per player to round out a Giannis/Boogie roster which is more than enough to lock in a solid core. Point Guard is loaded with mid-range plays you can easily mix and match so that is the one position I would look to move pieces around so you can ensure the rest of your roster is filled out in a fashion you are comfortable with.
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NHL, NFL and EPL!