NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 8 Top Picks and Plays

NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 8 Top Picks and Plays:

Were back again for week eight in NFL DFS, in what looks to be lacking in value plays, but offering appetizing GPP plays. Unlike the last few weeks, I may be devoting more of my bankroll towards GPP, with the absence of standout value plays. Nevertheless, I’ll look to uncover any underpriced values, exploitable matchups, changes in workload, and my hot takes.

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 10/26): Philadelphia – 29.5, New Orleans – 28.25, New England – 28, Cincinnati – 26.25, Dallas – 26, Seattle 25.75

NFL DFS Underpriced Values:

Andy Dalton – CIN (QB) – DK

Cincinnati will host the visiting Indianapolis Colts, in a game in which the Bengals are double-digit favorites. The Colt’s defensive struggles are no secret, and I would expect Andy Dalton to be quite chalky this week. The Colt’s pass defense ranks 30th in efficiency and Dalton should have his way with them. He’s in play on both sites, but is extremely discounted on DraftKings.

LeSean McCoy – BUF (RB) – FD

LeSean McCoy finally found the end zone last week and will be in other advantageous matchup this week. Oakland will travel east for the early game, where they are a short road dog. While their pass defense is the more vulnerable aspect of their defense, McCoy has a unique combination of a safe fantasy floor with a high ceiling.

A.J. Green – CIN (WR) – FD

If we like Andy Dalton, we should probably be on the Bengals’ target leader, A.J. Green. Green is a handful for any defense, but should certainly be one this week against the Colt’s secondary. Green was stymied by the Steelers defense last week, but that was somewhat expected. I would look to get exposure to the top wide out, especially on FanDuel, where he only costs $8500.

NFL DFS Matchups to Exploit:

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – OCTOBER 22: Doug Baldwin

Doug Baldwin vs. Houston

With Houston coming off of a bye, many are forgetting some of the injuries that occurred to the Houston defense. Before facing off against an inept Browns offense, Houston lost both Watt and Mercilus. Since then, they have yet to be tested, but should be this week as they head on the road to Seattle. I’m expecting a big day from Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin, given his matchup. Baldwin should see plenty of Kareem Jackson, who has a PFF grade of 43.7.

Keenan Allen vs. Eric Rowe, New England Secondary

Eric Rowe missed practice again on Friday, likely indicating that he would sit. If so, backup Jonathan Jones would likely take his place in the slot against Keenan Allen. Before the injury to Rowe, the Patriots were already bleeding fantasy points against slot wide receivers.

Most Fantasy (PPR) Points per Game Allowed to WRs Out of the Slot

1. Buccaneers (22.6)
2. Patriots (18.0)
3. Chargers (16.3)
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 22, 2017

It’s also important to note that the Patriots lost their signal caller, and leader, Dont’a Hightower.

NFL DFS Changes in Workload:

Josh Doctson – WR (WSH)

To much surprise, Josh Doctson got the start over Terrelle Pryor on Monday night against the Eagles. Pryor and Cousins have struggled to get on the same page early in the season and it would appear as if the coaching staff will now turn to Doctson to take over the “X” receiver spot. Doctson saw 29 first half snaps to Pryor’s one, but Pryor did play a bigger role in the second half, with the final snap counts at, Doctson 54, and Pryor 30. This is still very much an uncertain situation, but Doctson may be worth a flier this week.

Jordan Reed – TE (WSH)

Jordan Reed also saw a season high in targets, as he received 10, on Monday night. Washington will still plan to incorporate Vernon Davis, but we saw Reed move into the slot and run 19 routes against the Eagles. It would appear as if Washington understands how valuable both of these tight ends are, and they’re going to make a concerted effort to get them the ball. Reed has struggled to stay healthy throughout his entire career, but if last Monday was any indicator, he may be trending towards being back to 100%.

NFL DFS Hot Takes:

Seattle and Houston score a combined 50 points

As I mentioned, people are sleeping on how bad this Houston defense is going to look, given their current injuries. It doesn’t do them any favors, as they’ll travel to Seattle, to take on an offense that is much more efficient at home and has found a rhythm of late.

On the other side of the ball, while I’m not totally sold on Watson yet, his willingness to take big shots will push this game over the total. Whether he completes them or turns the ball over, I think his aggressiveness will play a factor in putting points up for either team.

Lamar Miller records over 20 DraftKings points

If I think this game scores 50 points, they have to come from somewhere right? As we’ve progressed through the season, we’ve seen the Seattle secondary improve and turn this defense into a true, “run funnel” defense. They currently rank as the 5th best pass DVOA defense, but the 23rd best run DVOA defense. With a rookie quarterback heading to a raucous environment, I would expect Bill O’Brien to lean on his running game, especially early in the game.

Next: FanDuel Week 8 Top NFL Plays

Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across NFL, NHL, NBA and EPL!