FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday November 1
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP line-up that took down $100,000 in the $4 Pumpkin Shot had a relatively evenly balanced roster build as they spent up for the Greek Freak but stayed balanced the rest of the way with guys like Devin Booker (42.4) and D’Angelo Russell (45.2) while mixing in elite value plays like Mike James (46.1) to take home a big time tournament win with 362.7 FD points.
Over the first fourteen NBA regular season slates it has taken 373.4 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.22x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first fourteen NBA regular season slates it has taken 373.4 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.22x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays:
First things first – this slate is MASSIVE as we have twelve games to choose from and essentially every superstar we want is in play tonight. We have a variety of injuries to monitor which could open up more value throughout the day and make this is even tougher slate to keep track of with more punt plays becoming available!
My initial take when looking over this slate however is to stay more balanced as the mid-range is incredibly strong and I think you can build a GPP winning line-up by simply staying in the range of players that will deliver you 35-45 FanDuel points per person.
Kyrie Irving ($8,400): One of the things I like to do on slates that are this large is try to find differentiating factors – one of those being to target teams on the tail end of a back to back like the Celtics get tonight against the Kings who have to travel to Boston from Indiana.
Irving has seemingly found his groove at the helm of the Celtics offense having put up 43 or more FanDuel points in each of his last three games in tough match-ups against the Spurs, Heat and Bucks. Tonight he will take on a Kings team ranked 19th in DvP to opposing PG’s in his easiest matchup over this recent stretch so expecting another 45-50 point outing from Kyrie is not of the question. The Celtics are 12 point home favorites here so the blow out risk is real but in spots like this the reality is, Kyrie IS the Celtics usage/offense so any blowout is likely a result of a big game out of their star PG which makes me confident in another 30+ minutes tonight!
Kyle Lowry ($7,500): Lowry struggled out of the gate this season but has seemingly found his footing in recent games putting up 40.6 FanDuel points per game over his last three outings and tonight will take on a Nuggets team ranked 21st in DvP while Jamal Murray has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any PG on the slate!
This three game stretch for Lowry where he is averaging over 14 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds per game while logging 34+ minutes in each contests gives us the kind of well-rounded upside we look for in DFS when building our roster!
The one value play you could go back to tonight is Mike James ($4,500) who was wildly impressive on Tuesday night as he racked up 46 FanDuel points on the back of 24 points, 5 assists and 4 steals. Watching the Suns-Nets game, the aggressiveness of James was on full display as he routinely attacked the paint as he looked to take advantage of an under-sized Nets front court. The match-up tonight against John Wall and the Wizards is more middle of the road than last night but the price point is fair as his salary was not able to adjust after the big performance last night!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Bradley Beal ($7,200): No team on the slate has a larger implied team total or pace boost than the Washington Wizards who are projected to score 118 points tonight against the Suns which is 7 points higher than their season average. The rub in this spot is the Suns are playing on the second night of a back to back which is why the Wizards are 12 point home favorites with some serious blow out risk!
The Wizards back court sets up to have perfect match-ups tonight as the Suns rank 30th in DvP to opposing PG’s and 28th to opposing SG’s so getting some exposure here is critical and I will look to take my shot with the cheaper player in Bradley Beal. Beal was red-hot heading into their battle with Golden State as he had put up 43+ in three of his first four games but after being ejected 15 minutes into the game and working through a blow out against the Kings, the recent game logs may scare some people away which could lead to reduced ownership in this spot.
Devin Booker ($7,200) on the other side of this game makes for a great correlation play if you think the Suns can keep this game close as his insane usage and pure volume makes him an elite play any time he is on the slate. Booker is coming off back to back 40+ FanDuel points outing with 42 and 46 points against Portland and Brooklyn and with 19+ shots in each of his last three games will get all the shot attempts he can handle tonight. If you plan on fading the Wizards side of this game then I do not think Booker is a necessary play but if you plan to get Wizards exposure then I think you need to run it back with the #1 option on the Suns!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
There is a variety of injury information that will help determine which route we should go in the mid-range at small forward tonight as we could see the return of Markieff Morris for the Wizards and Hassan Whiteside for the Heat.
If Whiteside remains out, this is a massive bounce back spot for Josh Richardson ($5,300) as the Bulls rank 27th in DvP against starting small forwards or you can pivot to someone like Jaylen Brown ($5,300) at the same price point for a Celtics team that sees the biggest projected point boost on the slate.
Joe Ingles ($5,400) continues to be a great mid-range value play as his ability to rack up steals (3 in each of his last three games) gives significant upside from a GPP perspective if he is also seeing his offensive game click as witnessed by his 34 FD point outing two games ago (6.2x value).
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,100) could be another cheap way to get exposure to the WIzards offense but the pending return of Markieff Morris could send him back to the bench tonight so keep an eye on the news here!
Trevor Ariza ($5,000) will take on a Knicks team ranked 21st in DvP versus opposing SF’s and lastly T.J. Warren ($5,100) will look to build off his 36 FD point performance on Tuesday as the clear #2 option on the Suns.
With so many options in this price tier you can easily mix and match based off your roster build and for my money, I would prioritize Warren if you are playing Wizards in the attempt to build a mini game stack here!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Otto Porter ($7,300) is another player in an elite spot against a Suns team ranked 27th in DvP and Marqueese Chriss has the worst individual defensive rating of any PF on this slate. Porter has put up 47+ FD points in three of his last five games which would exceed 6.4x value at this price point and on this slate my hope is the Suns can keep this game close so we get a full complement of Wizards run!
Dario Saric ($3,800) is the one value play I have my eye on early today as the injury to J.J. Reddick has meant that Saric has moved into the starting line-up the last two games putting up nearly 21 FD points per game and exceed 5x value in both contests. Saric and the Sixers have one of the highest team totals on the board and are projected to be in the second highest paced game against the Atlanta Hawks so if we can get another start from Saric here, he gives us some salary flexibility to pay up in a few spots today.
Center is loaded on this slate and I think it is the position you can really differentiate yourself at as I would expect widely spread out ownership at the position which means we could get an elite player at single digit ownership! Joe Embiid ($8,200) tends to be under-owned each and every slate as his price relative to his minutes scares the majority of people away but this is a player who has put up 37+ FanDuel points in all but one game this season so the floor is relatively safe while we know if he ever gets 30 minutes the ceiling is limitless!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- LAST CHANCE: $250 Guaranteed Bonus for Your Week 1 College Football Bet at DraftKings and FanDuel!
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,400)
PG: Kyle Lowry ($7,500)
SG: Bradley Beal ($7,200)
SG: Devin Booker ($7,200)
SF: T.J. Warren ($5,100)
SF: Josh Richardson ($5,300)
PF: Otto Porter ($7,300)
PF: Dario Saric ($3,800)
C: Joel Embiid ($8,200)
Slate Overview: This is a LOADED slate tonight and the roster builds are going to vary greatly from player to player as I do not see any clear “must have” plays that will skew ownership. As a result I think building a balanced roster is the best approach tonight and if we can get that one value play (like Saric) to unlock some savings we can still afford to spend up in a few positions! Good luck all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your fantasy and DFS news and analysis!