FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Thursday November 2
Welcome to the Thursday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning tournament scores pushed well over 400 as we had some big time games from the games most recognizable superstars like LeBron James (57.7 FD points), some up and coming stars like Ben Simmons (50.1) and some high scoring plays from the Wizards and Suns as T.J. Warren went off for 61.5 FD points while Bradley Beal had 49.2!
Over the first fifteen NBA regular season slates it has taken 376.2 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.27x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first fifteen NBA regular season slates it has taken 376.2 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.27x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Guard Picks:
After a huge twelve game slate on Wednesday we are left with a meager two game slate on Thursday which for those of you that are DFS veterans is a trend we have seen in previous years although the NBA has looked to spread the schedule out more this year which we love for DFS purposes. Because it is a two game slate, your “edge” is essentially none so playing large field tournaments in my opinion is a waste of time and I would focus on small field GPP’s instead.
Stephen Curry ($9,500) and Klay Thompson ($6,800): The Warriors have the highest implied team total on the slate at 112.3 but against the Spurs this is actually a 9 point decrease from their season average while seeing the largest pace decrease of any team on the slate. On a large slate where we have legit alternatives you could make the case for fading the Warriors but on a two game slate like tonight, you are simply going to need to have Warriors exposure to compete.
From a pure match-up perspective, Curry has the best individual match-up as Dejounte Murray is the lone Spurs starter with a negative real plus/minus defensive rating so prioritizing the Warriors point guard is where I think you should start tonight. Thompson is the cheapest of the Warriors and faces a Spurs team ranked 14th in DvP versus opposing SG’s so I like the idea of stacking the Warriors back-court and planting your flag that this where the Warriors offense comes from against a slow-paced Spurs defense.
Damian Lillard ($9,800) and C.J. McCollum ($8,000): Portland has the second highest point total on the slate as they take on the Lakers in a game with the largest expected pace boost so stacking the Portland back-court that accounts for 55% of the Portland usage in a fast paced game is an ideal core building block on this slate. From a pure match-up perspective, the Lakers rank 22nd and 25th in DvP to opposing PG’s and SG’s respectively which are the two worst marks at those positions so locking in the Portland star guards tonight will be the first move I make in all line-ups tonight.
One big piece of information we will wait on tonight is the status of Al Farouq Aminu who left Wednesday’s game with wrist AND ankle injuries and although the X-rays came back negative it would not be surprising to see him sit on the tail end of a back to back.
Interestingly enough, the absence of Aminu actually increases the usage for the Portland guards as both Lillard and McCollum see a 6-7% usage bump with Aminu off the court and have a 39% and 32% usage rate respectively. So with Aminu off the floor you are telling me I can get 70% of the Portland usage in a pace up game? Yes please.
FanDuel NBA – Top Forward and Center Plays:
When you have these small slates you essentially find yourself having to “plant your flag” with a certain core and tonight’s slate is no different as we have two stud back-courts in Golden State and Portland we can opt to spend up for or we can choose to pay up for guys like Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge or Draymond Green.
The first two players I crossed off my list today were LMA and Draymond and the rationale is simple – are either of these two guys likely to “break the slate” and put up a monster 60-70 point game that you cannot win without? Of all the stars on the slate I feel the most comfortable fading these two players as they seem far more likely to deliver a solid 35 FanDuel points than deliver the kind of GPP winning performance that someone like Curry or Lillard could. Durant on the other hand is the one scary fade we make out of necessity but he becomes my “plant the flag” player as he gets the toughest individual match-up against Kyle Anderson who has the best defensive rating of any of the Spurs starters!
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,400) is literally the only option I would even feel comfortable using at center tonight and the price point is reasonable enough that you can lock him in while stacking up the top back-court options. We mentioned before the injury to Aminu and although the same size is small this season, no player has seen a bigger usage increase with Aminu off the floor than Nurkic who has an 8% usage bump while putting up a 37% usage rate! Nurkic is the lone center on this slate with the minutes security and upside to make him a must play so getting the edge on anyone who looks to punt here could put you way ahead of the field!
Brandon Ingram ($5,900) is the safest SF pivot off KD as he is locked into 30+ minutes a night and has delivered 30+ FanDuel points in four of his seven games so far this season. The three-headed monster at PF for the Lakers is one I normally avoid but I think on this slate you are going to have to hold your nose and pick one! Larry Nance Jr. ($5,200), Julius Randle ($4,700) and Kyle Kuzma ($4,600) are all GPP dart throws that cut into each other’s production so rather than prioritize any of them, I would simply slide in whichever one fits into your roster build once you have the rest of your team filled. If forced to choose, I would opt to go with Randle as he has the highest usage (23.2%) and fantasy point per minute production (1.2) of any of the PF’s on the Lake Show!
Noah Vonleh ($3,100) may be the salary saving punt option that unlocks the superstars tonight as he could slide into the starting line-up with Aminu’s injury. Evan Turner ($4,900) and Moe Harkless (4,800) will both see a nice usage bump as well but all things considered I will look to take the cheapest option of the three as Dame-CJ-Nurkic will dominate the usage for Portland and leave the rest of Portland with DFS scraps!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- LAST CHANCE: $250 Guaranteed Bonus for Your Week 1 College Football Bet at DraftKings and FanDuel!
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
PG: Damian Lillard ($9,800)
PG: Stephen Curry ($9,500)
SG: Klay Thompson ($6,800)
SG: C.J. McCollum ($8,000)
SF: Brandon Ingram ($5,900)
SF: Kyle Anderon ($4,800)
PF: Julius Randle ($4,700)
PF: Noah Vonleh ($3,100)
C: Jusuf Nurkic ($7,400)
Slate Overview: On a two game slate like this, my advice is plant your flag with your core plays – make strong fades and focus on small field GPP’s instead of shooting for the glitz of the large field tournaments. The injury to Al Farouq Aminu is the biggest piece of news I will be watching for to see how Portland responds but keep an eye on “rest” as we have a two game slate with the Spurs on it so there is always a chance we could get POPPED! Good luck all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!