Yankees Masahiro Tanaka stays with New York: Fantasy Fallout

Masahiro Tanaka decided to stay with the Yankees, and not exercise his opt-out clause. What is the fantasy fallout of the news?

The Yankees had a tremendous run this season in large part to breakout seasons from their young core and clutch pitching in the postseason. Masahiro Tanaka made three solid starts to help fuel the Yankees but had an uncharacteristic regular season.

So, what gives?

Tanaka ended the 2017 season with 13 W/4.74 ERA/1.24 WHIP/194 K line. The ERA and WHIP were the worst of his career, as were his 35 HR surrendered which were nearly lead the league.

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There is no question that his surface stats were ugly for most of the year, and he had three good months, mixed with three bad ones. He started the season with an ERA of 4.20 in April before hitting rock bottom in May, where he posted an 8.42 ERA.

From Jun.-Aug. though, he posted no high than 3.94 ERA, capping it off with a 2.63 ERA in Aug. But, then the ugliness came back in Sept., as he would post a 4.99 ERA to close the regular season.

Tanka’s struggles this season are perplexing. On one hand, he was prone to huge blowups this season thanks to the long ball. As he transitioned to a breaking ball-heavy approach, he was hanging the ball and paying for it. He did not work the fastball up in the zone as he did the years prior, and it allowed to hitters to square him up.

On the other hand, Tanaka led MLB in Chase percentage, forcing batters to swing at 43% of his pitches out of the zone. His 70.5 Contact% is the 12th best rate since 2007 and was the fourth best this season.

Tanaka’s stuff was not the problem this season. He just ran into more bad luck than usual, his BABIP climbed 30 points from last season, and his 3.44 XFIP shows some his bad luck as well.

He actually dropped his surrendered LD rate to 18%, raised his GB rate to career-best 49%, and his FB rate only jumped 2% this season. Even his contact rates, 19% Soft, 49% Med and 31% Hard, were nearly right in line with his career norms.

Tanaka did not fall off the face of the earth this season as some may think. His peripherals were right in line with what he has been doing during his success, and one could argue his stuff was moving even better in 2017.

His command is never going to be an issue, he has a career 4.6% BB rate, but the location did plague him. He made adjustments in the middle of the season, and his playoff starts highlighted his skill as well.

Next: Angels: Justin Upton re-ups in Los Angeles

Staying with the Yankees does not increase his fantasy value, but he does shape up to be one of the better bounceback picks later in drafts this season. His stuff was still solid and he has the track record as well.

Do not be afraid to select Masahiro Tanaka again in 2018.

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