The Big 12 may be down, but there’s still plenty of talent left to buoy the league.
For four straight seasons, the Big 12 has rated out as the toughest college basketball conference in the nation, according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metrics. Yet, questions still persist about the overall quality of the league relative to some of the country’s other elite conferences.
Those questions generally flow from two trains of thought. The first one asks how — if the Big 12 is actually this tough — have the Kansas Jayhawks won 13 straight regular season titles. The second relates to the league’s general lack of success in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas hasn’t made a Final Four since 2012 and prior to the Oklahoma Sooners’ trip to Houston in 2016, the conference hadn’t seen a non-Jayhawk squad play on the season’s last weekend since 2004.
The Big 12 as a whole will be out to respond to its critics this season, but it will have to do so with a depleted talent pool. Two of the league’s tournament teams last season, the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma State Cowboys, lost significant pieces while Kansas and the Baylor Bears both have to replace an All-American.
2017-18 may ultimately represent a rebuilding year for the conference, but it still has plenty of firepower at the top and a strong middle even if the bottom of the league rates out as the worst in recent seasons.
Preseason Player of the Year: Jevon Carter, West Virginia
If any team in the conference is slowly developing the blueprint to knock the Jayhawks from their perch, it’s the West Virginia Mountaineers. Bob Huggins’ squad has beaten Kansas four straight seasons in Morgantown and come close to a coveted win in Allen Fieldhouse twice. The Mountaineers are once again best positioned to challenge the perennial favorites for the top spot in the league and it all starts with point guard Jevon Carter.
The 6-foot-2 senior is widely regarded as one of the top defenders in all of college basketball. He is excellent pressuring ball-handlers at the point of attack and is a swarming presence in West Virginia’s up-tempo pressing scheme. Last season, Carter made the leap offensively as well, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 assists per 40 minutes. The key was his increased efficiency from the field — he raised his true shooting percentage from 50.0 as a sophomore to 57.2 in 2016-17 — which mostly resulted from an improved 3-point shot.
Ultimately, this race should come down to Carter and Kansas point guard Devonte’ Graham, but the former’s two-way ability and the latter’s role in a more balance offensive squad should tip the scales.
The Rest of the All-Big 12 First Team:
- Devonte’ Graham, Kansas: Graham will take over point guard duties from last season’s National Player of the Year Frank Mason. As such, his full arsenal of off the dribble scoring and underrated passing should be on display.
- Keenan Evans, Texas Tech: Every year has a “this is the year” feeling to it when it comes to the Red Raiders. If they have success in 2017-18, the guard who averaged 20.2 points per 40 minutes last season will be a big reason why.
- Jeffrey Carroll, Oklahoma State: Carroll averaged 24.0 points per 40 minutes last season and with Jawun Evans off to the NBA, he figures to carry a much bigger offensive load for a Cowboys squad in the midst of a rebuild.
- Vladimir Brodziansky, TCU: The 6-foot-11 forward has an under the radar shot to win Big 12 Player of the Year if the Horned Frogs improve like they should. He averaged 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per 40 minutes last season.
Preseason Freshman of the Year: Mohamed Bamba, Texas
Former Kansas center Jeff Withey once blocked 146 shots in one season. It ranks as the most blocked shots in a single year for a Big 12 player dating back to 1985-86. It may not be a stretch to suggest that Texas Longhorns freshman Mohamed “Mo” Bamba could challenge that mark in 2017-18.
Withey benefited significantly from a defensive scheme that funneled drivers to him and his volleyball background to pair with a 7-foot frame synergized well, but Bamba has other worldly physical tools. The 19-year old has a 7-foot-9 wingspan and 9-foot-6 standing reach. He is also one of the highest IQ players in the Class of 2018.
Texas could theoretically take advantage of Bamba like Kansas did Withey, leaving him at the rim to erase any high percentage shot opposing offenses might look to muster. The difference is that the freshman phenom is also solid moving laterally to keep up with guards on the perimeter.
However head coach Shaka Smart decides to use Bamba, the 7-footer figures to make a hefty impact on the Big 12 in his first season even if his offensive game is still evolving. That’s enough to earn him Preseason Freshman of the year honors.
The Favorite: Kansas
The rule book says you don’t pick against Kansas, so we’ve got the Jayhawks locking up a 14th straight regular season crown. Sure, the team has to move on from Mason, lottery pick Josh Jackson and the experience of Landen Lucas down low, but it also returns a good bit of firepower to combine with several newcomers.
As discussed, Graham will take over the reins running the offense. Wings Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Lagerald Vick will give roster some added punch from behind the 3-point arc while the return of sophomore big man Udoka Azubuike should shore up things on the interior.
The most notable newcomer is former top 10 recruit Malik Newman who transferred from Mississippi State prior to last season. Newman has the potential to lead the Jayhawks in scoring if his jumper falls consistently. 5-star freshman Billy Preston will be expected to play significant minutes given the short rotation in the frontcourt. Meanwhile, Arizona State transfer Sam Cunliffe will add some depth on the wing when he becomes eligible in December.
Next: Kansas reloads for another season atop the Big 12
Projected Order of Finish:
- Kansas
- West Virginia
- TCU
- Texas
- Baylor
- Oklahoma
- Texas Tech
- Kansas State
- Oklahoma State
- Iowa State