Nylon Calculus: Orlando Magic and volatility beyond the arc

They may have come back down to earth as a collective over the weekend, but the Orlando Magic have just about exceeded everyone’s expectations to open the season. Orlando’s hot start has given rise to many a piece like this and this, a start that left everyone wondering just when the Magic turned into the Golden State Warriors.

Even more impressively, through those first eight games, the Magic hadn’t just been shooting lights out to open the year, they had been consistently shooting the lights out to open the year. The Magic had shot at least 33 percent from deep on no fewer than 21 attempts in each of those games, a season-opening streak with little parallel this century.

In all likelihood, the Magic will not end the season as the runaway greatest 3-point shooting team of all time (maybe). But they’re still in pretty good company among modern teams with similar streaks through a season. The Philadelphia 76ers were the only team to have such a proficient stretch of marksmanship and still finish below 35 percent from beyond the arc across the entire season (on both occasions).

Buoyed by early signs of improved shooting strokes from Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, as well as contributions from players like Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin (getting more run in place of the injured more range-limited Elfrid Payton, and allowing the Magic to somewhat fortuitously unlock a successful offensive formula), it is fair to wonder: can the Magic actually keep this up throughout an entire season?

I set up some Monte Carlo-style simulations to check just that. To keep things brief, a Monte Carlo simulation allows us to use probability distributions to assess and project a range of outcomes. A Monte Carlo exercise, though, is only as good as its underlying input data and assumptions. Assumptions such as ‘all agents follow independently repetitive and perfectly rational behavior.’ (If Nick Young is anything to go by, NBA players are most definitely not perfectly rational.)

With that said however, despite its somewhat idealized parameters, what a Monte Carlo simulation does offer us is a reasonably simple means of modeling an interesting phenomenon that produces, at best, avenues of further exploration and questioning, and at worst, moderately useful results! I ran two different simulations. The first was a base case that used only historical 3-point shooting data from the past three seasons (limited to players taking at least one 3-point attempt per game and excluding rookie Jonathan Isaac).

So, projecting forward from the first eight games of the season, heavy regression is to be expected. However, even the mean result, a 36 percent finish from deep, would have left the Magic on the cusp of the top third of the league in 3-point percentage last season, certainly a step up from their 29th-place finish.

There is a key issue with the base case and using only historical data though (this is the part where the ‘output is only as good as the input’ statement plays in). It doesn’t allow for, by all accounts what appear to be, organic improvement from players like Vucevic and Gordon. So I ran the simulation again, this time giving Vucevic a Frank Kaminisky-esque shooting proficiency (on the lower end for a stretch 5, but in line with the improvement Vucci Mane displayed last season), giving Aaron Gordon a Brook Lopez-esque shooting proficiency (based on 2016-17 when Lopez emerged as a surprising weapon from deep), and adding some conservative projections for Jonathan Isaac into the mix. With those new set of assumptions in place, the Magic unsurprisingly saw some improvement in their simulations.

Still heavy regression, but a mean result of 38 percent from 3pooint range this time, which would have been good for a top-3 or top-4 finish last season. Which is all to say, of course Orlando’s shooting won’t maintain its current pace. But that’s okay! Amongst the noise of the early season, there’re still many signals that they will end up as at least a top-10 team from beyond the arc, which in the Eastern Conference could well be enough to vault them not only into the playoffs, but into the tier of legitimately entertaining teams. That’s a level of hope that Magic fans haven’t had in years.

There’s real systematic reason to believe that it’s more than a mirage as well. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic legitimately look to have a capable stroke from deep. Filling in for Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin (a career 37 percent 3-point shooter) has given the Magic spacing from the point guard spot in a way that Payton (a career 29 percent 3-point shooter on a mere 1.2 attempts per game) has struggled with throughout his career. And his ability to cash in from range is enabling 5-out, spacing-intensive lineups that are stretching the opposition and opening up looks for others:

Disrupting that sort of rhythm for the sake of reintegrating Payton into the starting lineup when he returns would be a tough sell, for fans and players alike. With Aaron Gordon thriving as a full-time power forward and a cast of underrated but skilled offensive players around him, crisp spacing is invaluable to Orlando’s ambitions this season.

There will inevitably be dry spells for the Magic (which we already saw against the Bulls and Celtics). Even the game’s most prolific shooters hit rough patches and come up empty, and none of Orlando’s shooters are named Redick or Korver. Even Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, for all their brilliance, take the lows along with their highs, as this probability density chart from the last three years’ worth of games shows.

Curry, Thompson, Redick, and Korver have the highest 3-point percentage of all players with at least 400 made 3-pointers over the last three seasons, and their density lines show that game-to-game variance is to be expected of anyone. The upside though is that even on those nights when it feels like there’s a lid on the rim, the threat of spacing established through the course of the season can be a net positive development.

Next: Nylon Calculus -- Blake Griffin has been playing Moreyball

I guess, what I’m trying to say is this: while the Magic are likely going to be a fairly efficient team from deep this season, if they close the year shooting over 40 percent on 3s, I might literally have to eat this article.

*All data courtesy of NBA play-by-play and Basketball-Reference